2026.9.15 "Nikkei Average Today's Review and Next Week's Forecast"
【September 15】 Nikkei average falls for the third day in a row. Buy at 63,000 yen, sell at 64,000 yen — the fight before the FOMC becomes clear
On September 15, the Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Stock Average closed down from the previous day by8 yen 89 sen at 63,484 yen 10 sen.
The decline was only 0.01%.
Looking at the numbers alone, it was “nearly flat.”
However, today’s price movements were by no means small.
In the morning, the Nikkei opened with selling pressure.
Right after trading began, it fell to
63,067 yen 18 sen
.
But buying emerged near the 63,000 yen level, and then it rebounded sharply.
In the first session,
64,101 yen 00 sen
.
The price range from low to high was
about 1,034 yen.
With more than 1,000 yen moved within the day, the final day-on-day change was only 8 yen lower.
If you were to describe today’s Nikkei in one phrase,
“Buy at 63,000 yen, but sell at 64,000 yen.”
It is extremely important to consider this framework for the days ahead.
First, verify yesterday’s forecast
In yesterday’s article, three important levels were cited as key today:
62,700
63,000
64,000
The actual low today was 63,067 yen.
In other words,
it rebounded without breaking 63,000 yen.
And the high was 64,101 yen.
breaking through 64,000 yen once
was achieved.
However, by the close, it was pulled back to 63,484 yen.
In other words, today’s outcome is very straightforward.
We can confirm buying at 63,000 yen.
However,
there was not yet enough strength to break through and sustain above 64,000 yen.
I evaluate today’s market as
“we confirmed support at the lower level, but cannot yet call it a turning point higher.”
The day’s biggest feature was the tug-of-war between SoftBank Group and Advantest
What happened to the overall Japanese stock market
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market,
Number of advancing stocks: 798
Number of declining stocks: 684
Unchanged: 66
Nikkei average closed slightly lower, but more stocks rose than fell.
However, by sector,
Information and communications, pharmaceuticals, and services rose, while
Oil & coal
Banks
Securities
fell, among others.
Today’s picture is somewhat different from yesterday.
Yesterday, when the Nikkei fell sharply the TOPIX rose, leading to broad buying.
Today,
the index is flat, the number of gainers slightly higher, but many sectors declined.
In short,
the market as a whole is neither strong nor weak.
It is a market waiting entirely for events.
Why buying at 63,000 yen mattered
Today’s focus is where I place greatest value.
In the morning, the Nikkei fell to 63,067 yen.
Just 67 yen away from 63,000.
Then it was rapidly bought back from there.
Yesterday, it also fell to 62,726 yen before recovering to 63,492 yen.
In other words, for two consecutive days,
there are investors who want to buy around 63,000 yen
This is positive in the short term.
Since last week,
65,000
↓
64,000
↓
63,000
support levels have been stepping down.
Within that context, there is now a certain buying interest around 63,000 yen.
However,
“being bought at 63,000 yen does not mean the bottom is in.”
To confirm a real bottom, the following conditions are needed.
Why couldn’t the 64,000 yen level be surpassed
Today the Nikkei rose to 64,101 yen at one point.
But in the afternoon it was sold again, and the close was 63,484 yen.
About 600 yen was pulled back.
The backdrop here is interest rates.
Today, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose to
the 5.02% range
— the highest since 2007.
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around
3.025%
at one point.
When interest rates rise, relative appeal of stocks declines.
This is especially a headwind for high-PER growth and semiconductor stocks.
Even though prices recovered in the morning, in the afternoon they faced resistance due to
rising long-term rates in the U.S. and Japan
which is what I see as the reason for the late-day weakness.
Dollar-yen heads toward the upper 154s
In the currency market, as of 3:00 PM, the dollar/yen was at the
upper 154s
yen per dollar, indicating dollar strength and yen weakness.
The low today was 154.22, rising briefly to 154.91.
Driven by higher crude oil and rising U.S. interest rates, dollar buying increased.
However,
before the FOMC, active dollar chasing was also limited
.
For Japanese stocks, a yen depreciation in the upper 154s is positive for export stocks.
But now,
Because the cause of the yen weakness is
rising U.S. interest rates
Therefore, export stocks benefit,
These two forces are clashing.
Oil at the $107 range. Not to be ignored yet
Brent crude is currently
in the $107 range
and
WTI around $103.
The risk of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East keeps prices elevated.
Oil prices are extremely important for evaluating the current market.
Because they trigger
oil price increases
↓
inflation expectations
↓
Fed rate-hike expectations
↓
U.S. interest-rate increases
↓
tech stock declines
into motion.
Indeed, the current breach of the U.S. 10-year yield above 5% is not unrelated to inflation concerns driven by higher oil prices.