Session 4: What to look at and how to judge when performance declines — How to approach USDJPY Ultimate (6 total sessions)
Reasons for choosing the royal road, entry requirements, design when you lose, and parameter disclosure—these have been the topics about the inside of the EA so far. This time, we'll shift perspective a little and talk about after you actually start using it.
When operating, there are naturally good periods and bad periods. When results decline, you face the decision of “whether to watch and see” or “whether to stop using it”—a decision everyone using an EA will confront at least once. This time, I’ll share how I think about that decision.
14-day free trial version now available
You can verify how it actually responds to market movements in your own environment before purchase.
There are two kinds of “not performing well”
First, as a premise, there is no trade logic with a 100% win rate. The combination of SRSI and the four-fold filter discussed in the first installment is a mechanism that enters when certain conditions are met, and not everything will be profitable. In other words, trades that lose consecutively can occur not because the logic is broken, but because they are events within probabilistic possibilities.
The question is how to distinguish between this “range of possible fluctuations” and “the market environment itself has become unfavorable to this logic.” If you confuse the two, you might prematurely abandon a period simply because it happened to be bad, or you might continue to use it in a fundamentally unfriendly market.
What can be used as a basis for judgment
Actual results can be checked with public information
On the USDJPY Ultimate product page, actual operating results are disclosed. Rather than deciding you’re “not performing well” based solely on your own feel, you can compare against the disclosed performance to see whether your operating status lies within the general range or whether something unusual is happening.
Don’t decide by feel alone,
Compare with published information
As in the third installment, the reason for disclosing parameters is the same: showing results openly gives users the material for their own judgments. I don’t want to present good results only and remain silent when results are poor.
Still, deciding to stop using it is a perfectly valid choice
Up to here, I’ve described a way to avoid rushing to conclusions, but there is something I want to make clear. If after reviewing the above you decide that you should not continue using it with your own funds, that is a completely valid decision. As discussed in the first installment, there is no absolute in EA. Any logic can encounter situations where it stops working.
What matters is not reacting with emotion but being able to judge based on factors such as trade count, market environment, and disclosed performance, so you can set your own standards.
How to face declines in performance
Look at the number of trades to confirm whether it’s just a fluke. Check whether the market environment matches known weaknesses (range-bound markets). Use the moment when the account-wide safety mechanisms activate as the breakpoint to pause and reassess. Then compare with the disclosed results and your own situation. You can practice this entire process even during the trial version before purchase.
Next time, I’ll discuss what fundamentally differentiates discretionary trading from EA and why EA is an option to consider.
First, why not try your own eyes by observing real price movements for 14 days.
14 days free trialActual logic, parameters, and disclosed results can be checked on the product page.
【Dollar-Yen Exclusive】The Core Trend-Following EA “USDJPY Ultimate”※This article does not constitute investment or trading advice for any specific financial product. It aims to explain the design philosophy of EAs. Operating EAs involves the risk of losses. Past backtests, forward tests, and other verifications do not guarantee future performance. When engaging in actual trading, please understand the risks thoroughly and use at your own responsibility and judgment.