155 yen broke, the trend remains downward, but this week there is the FOMC and the Bank of Japan, so it will swing widely.
155 yen has broken, the trend remains the same downward.
However, this week there are FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings, so it could swing significantly.
As expected the previous week, warned that "if 155 yen breaks, the decline would be larger"
and it unfolded as such. Indeed it broke 155 yen and fell to
152.89 yen.
What happened this week (9/7–9/11)
▼ 155 yen completely broken
9/7 (Mon) in the 156 yen range
↓
9/9 (Wed) in the 154 yen range ← clearly broke below 155
↓
9/10 (Thu) fell to 152.89 yen (week low)
↓
9/11 (Fri) closed at 153.24 yen
The level of 155 yen, which had been a support, clearly broke downward.
★ The line that lost support becomes a "lid" that now pins from above
In other words, 155 yen will now tend to act as a place where, if it rises, it gets rejected.
▼ Two large bearish candles on the weekly chart for two weeks in a row
On the weekly chart, which summarizes one week into one candle,
two large downward candles appeared in succession.
→ A clear sign that the trend is being driven by yen buying
Rather than the minute-by-minute intraday moves, on a weekly basis,
the direction becomes clearer.
▼ Now in a small range
Upper: around 155 yen
↕ Narrow range of about 2 yen up and down
Lower: around 153 yen
After the sharp drop, it paused and has been moving within this narrow range
back and forth.
★ Until it breaks either way from this range, avoid forcing moves
Why "a rate hike = yen appreciation" is not guaranteed
This week, both Wednesday in the U.S. (FOMC) and Friday in Japan (BOJ) are expected to raise rates.
Both sides are expected to raise rates.
It is natural to think, "If Japan raises, the yen will be bought and strengthen."
...but it isn’t that simple.
▼ What does “priced in” mean
It means the market is anticipating what will happen next and reflecting it in price ahead of time.
It is a state where prices have already accounted for the forthcoming events.
Price
│ Announcement day
／￣│＼＿／＼＿
／ │
／ │
／ │
Priced on expectations │ not extending after the outcome
Prices move on expectations even before the announcement day.
Thus, even if the actual result matches expectations, there are many times when it stops moving.
★ Market proverb: "Buy on rumors, sell on facts"
▼ How much is priced in this time
・BOJ 0.25% rate hike … almost fully priced in (about 97%)
・Markets also price in about three and a half rate hikes by July 2027
→ In other words, raising once is no longer surprising.
This is why people say, "Even if the BOJ hikes, the yen may not be bought."
▼ Then what should we look for
Not the decision itself, but the subsequent press conference.
・If hints suggest the pace of rate hikes will be faster than market expectations
→ Yen would buy (yen appreciation)
・If the language is cautious
→ Rates could rise but the yen may be sold (yen depreciation)
★ What moves markets is not the outcome but the deviation from expectations
Important events this week
■ September 16 (Wed) FOMC (U.S.)
Rate hike announcement and press conference by the Fed Chair.
Expect big moves in the late night of Japan time.
■ September 18 (Fri) BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting (Japan)
Rate hike announcement and press conference by Governor Ueda.
What matters is what is said about the next move.
★ Do not enter new positions before the event
Right after the announcement, there will be sharp swings up and down.
Even if the direction is correct, the range can wipe out your stops.
It is often enough to "watch and move" after observing.
Summary of this week's strategy
【Base】 Sell high levels (selling rallies)
Rally high target around 156–157 yen
【Upper limit】 155 yen now acts as a "lid".
If clearly broken above this, reassess the selling view
【Lower limit】 If below 153 yen, next support is around 151 yen
【Note】 Volatility is high around FOMC and BOJ
Keep positions small or avoid them
Important price levels to remember
160.00 yen …… high at the start of September. The decline started from here
158 yen area …… 200-day moving average (already broken below; lid above)
156–157 yen …… retracement high zone (retracement selling candidate)
155.00 yen …… support broken. From here, acts as a "lid"
153.24 yen …… Close on 9/11
152.89 yen …… Week low
151.00 yen …… Next lower target if 153 yen breaks
※ Next week's expected range: 152.50–156.50 yen
Looking back at three weeks of movement
Week of 8/31: broke above 160 yen → buying on dips → result: a trap
Week of 9/7: between 155 and 157 yen → selling on rallies → result: broke below 155
Week of 9/14: range of 153–155 yen → continue selling on rallies
・This is not investment advice to buy or sell specific trades.
・There are multiple schools of thought on market views, and no single interpretation is necessarily correct.
・Please make investment decisions at your own risk.