【Trajectory to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness and Memo_20260913】

【Dream Path to FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Note_20260913】


September 13, Sunday.

Hello.

This morning it was rainy,
but it has cleared up and the southern Kanto region is overcast.

So this makes 18 consecutive cloudy days
and I’m longing for sunshine. (laughs)

Now, this week there will be big moves due to
the FOMC and the Bank of Japan meeting.

It should be a good week to confirm direction,
so I’d like to keep a close watch on the charts.


Now, let’s check it out.
These are the numbers at the close of the daily chart.


【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 21st candle / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 12th candle / 9
Weekly volatility: 84 pips
HPC: 1st cycle, 58th candle / 43
Daily: 2nd cycle, 8th candle / 6
4HC: 5th or 1st cycle, 46th candle / 32

I am viewing it as such.

Weekly volatility is small, appears not suitable for trading currency pairs.
However, if even this much upward movement is expected,


it suggests possible future US dollar strength.

　　　
【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 25th
Weekly: 4th cycle, 19th candle / 12LT
Weekly volatility: 338 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle, 30th candle / 23LT
4HC: 3rd cycle, 38th candle / 6LT or
4HC: 3rd cycle, 23rd candle / 15

I view it this way.

Bessent’s remarks have led to a strong yen appreciation.
I am the house now. Stimulating words indeed.

If speculators start thinking yen appreciation,
carry trades may disappear.


【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 21st candle / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 12th candle / 9
Weekly volatility: 89 pips
HPC: 1st cycle, 58th candle / 43 or
Daily: 2nd cycle, 8th candle / 6
4HC: 5th or 1st cycle, 45th candle / 30

I view it this way.

With weekly volatility being small, eventually
I expect the US dollar to start moving higher.

After FOMC, a rate hike could push the dollar higher?


【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 26th candle / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 19th candle / 13LT
Weekly volatility: 362 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 30th candle / 15
4HC: 3rd cycle, 33rd candle / 4 or
4HC: 3rd cycle, 23rd candle / 18

I view it this way.

When dollar strength or yen strength occurs,
cross-yen pairs move downward.

That timing is approaching.
If 4HC breaks below its starting point,
I consider it a good timing.


【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 26th candle / 24
Weekly: 4th cycle, 20th candle / 12
Weekly volatility: 412 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 30th candle / 17
4HC: 3rd cycle, 33rd candle / 1 or
4HC: 3rd cycle, 23rd candle / 5

I view it this way.

Soon 4HC starting point could break,
and downward movement may intensify.

Similar to EUR/JPY.


【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 18th candle / 15
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 20th candle / 18
Weekly volatility: 255 pips
HPC: 2nd cycle, 30th candle / 20
4HC: 3rd cycle, 38th candle / 5LT or
4HC: 3rd cycle, 23rd candle / 5LT

I view it this way.

In 4HC, the starting point has already broken early.
There is potential for a leading currency,
and movement downward may intensify as is.
I think so.

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20260913_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/sRoQz8uNW_U
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DXY 99.094 ±0%
US10Y 4.969 +0.16%
DJI 52578 dollars +509 dollars
US500 +0.82%
WTI 100.374 dollars
BRN 109.94 dollars
Nikkei 225 64011 yen -1259 yen
　
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