Episode 18: Where do you doubt the finished product?
ACE Gold EA Ver.1 -GENESIS-
To the completed ACE,
make another incision.
However,
it does not mean you can change anything arbitrarily.
The first rule set for Ver.2 development was
to use GENESIS as the baseline.
And,
do not touch the parts that are winning.
Then,
which parts should be examined?
EA operates on the accumulation of many judgments
Before ACE makes a single trade,
there are many judgments.
Look at the market.
Create a channel.
Price touches it.
Is it a rebound?
Is it a breakout?
Is it a BUY?
Is it a SELL?
Do you enter?
Do you pass?
And after entry,
how long does it last?
When to exit?
How to extend profits?
In other words,
even if you lose
“the entry was bad”
does not necessarily mean the entry was bad.
The mistake may be the entry
In the first place,
the place where you shouldn’t have entered
ACE may have entered.
Misread the market conditions.
Mistook rebound for breakout.
Missed the direction.
It wasn’t the right timing to enter yet.
If that’s the case,
what should be fixedis the entry.
But it might be the exit
The entry itself was correct.
It was profitable at one point.
Yet,
holding longer led to
a loss.
There are trades like that.
If so, the problem is not the entry but
the exitmight be the issue.
There may be overprotectiveness
What makes it even harder is
defense.
ACE has
multiple defenses to reduce unnecessary entries.
But stronger defenses are not always better.
A defense that stops bad trades may also stop good trades that were about to win.
A defense that stops bad trades may
simultaneously
prevent the winning trades that were about to grow big
from becoming profits.
This is something we experienced repeatedly while making Ver.1.
Therefore, doubt one by one
Do not assume the entry is bad.
Do not assume the exit is bad.
Do not assume the defense is insufficient.
Do not preset the answers from the start.
Using GENESIS as the baseline,
make one change.
Backtest it.
Compare with the original.
Look at what improved.
And,
also look at what you lost.
This is the cycle.
Not adopted just because profits increased
In backtesting,
sometimes adding conditions
increases profits.
But,
that alone is not enough for adoption.
It might have merely wiped out a few big losses by chance.
It might have reduced the number of trades too much.
It might be erasing the situations where ACE excels.
So what we look at is not just final profit.
What disappeared.
What remained.
What losses were reduced.
What gains were lost.
We scrutinize that as well.
GENESIS is not a playground
For Ver.2,
we are not rebuilding Ver.1 from scratch.
GENESIS remains as the finished product.
And,
we conduct research by using copies of it.
Even if adding something leads to a failure,
you can return to GENESIS.
In other words,
Ver.2 development
is not development by breaking the finished product,
but research conducted by comparing with the finished product
has become.
And from here,
we will decompose the contents of ACE
one by one.
Entry point.
Defense.
Exit.
Position.
And,
the judgments ACE itself has made.
Where is the real mistake?
To find that answer,
the first experiment for Ver.2 begins.
Next time
“What was doubted first”
Using GENESIS as the baseline,
remove the conditions one by one,
change the movements one by one,
and探していきます。
Ver.2 initial verification begins.