[Sat 9/12] This Week's Answer Check | Closed at Weekly 153.50 · 0 Wins 3 Losses 2 Draws
This is a record from 9/7 (Mon) to 9/11 (Fri). The weekly close was at 153.50 (down 2.73 from the previous week), and the weekly range was 339 pips with a bearish candle.
Monday started with a 26.7-pip gap down and filled it within the day.
I’ll summarize how well the expected daily ranges held up over the course of a week.
First, in 60 seconds | This week’s recap
This week's performance
| Date | Judgment | Contents |
|---|---|---|
| 9/7 (Mon) | × | Closing price 154.34 broke below the assumed range 155.43–156.89 and closed |
| 9/8 (Tue) | △ | Temporarily broke below the lower end of the range, but the closing price 153.96 stayed within the range |
| 9/9 (Wed) | △ | Temporarily broke below the lower end of the range, but the closing price 153.50 returned to within the range |
| 9/10 (Thu) | × | Closing price 154.42 rose above the expected range 152.43–154.01 and closed |
| 9/11 (Fri) | × | Closing price 153.50 fell below the expected range 153.58–155.51 and closed |
Mon × Tue △ Wed △ Thu × Fri ×. This week ended with 0 wins, 3 losses, and 2 draws. For September overall, it’s 1 win, 5 losses, 3 draws (accuracy 11%). It was a week where prices closed outside the anticipated range repeatedly, so I’d like to reassess how I define the range itself.
This week viewed on a weekly chart
Open155.96High156.28Low152.89Close153.50
Change from last week-2.73 yenWeekly range339 pipsCandlestickBearish
Results of readers’ forecast
Last Sunday’s poll (8 votes) showed 25% “up,” 25% “roughly flat,” and 50% “down” → The result was -273 pips, i.e., “down.” The majority’s lower outcome performed well; my weekly scenario was a miss, closing at 153.50 and breaking below the expected range 155.22–156.87. I’m admirably soundly defeated by the majority.
The day with the biggest movement this week
On 9/7 (Mon), the price range was 222 pips. It started at 155.96 and closed at 154.34 with a bearish candle, concentrating the week's directional signal on that day.
IMM yen positions
Speculators’ net long in yen was 11,000 contracts bought (increasing by 1.03 million contracts from the previous week). In the past year, the range has been skewed toward long positions. The direction changed within the week, so I’ll watch how it continues next week.
Validation data
The weekly chart has two consecutive bearish candles. In the past 10 years, among 89 instances where this pattern occurred, the following week turned bullish 67% of the time. While a rebound tends to follow consecutive bearish candles, there is still 30% of cases where it does not, so I avoid overconfidence.
Today’s question
How did your earnings for this week look? Were you in profit, in loss, or even?
In tomorrow at 17:00 “Strategy Meeting,” I’ll deliver next week’s key indicators, weekly scenario, and Monday’s gap forecast
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That concludes this week’s record. Here is a compilation of the tools I use for validation.Tsumo@FX Method Validation Channel
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Note: The validation uses USD/JPY hourly data from January 2016 to March 2026. It does not promise future performance.
Indicator data: Edited from Forex Factory / Tradays; Price: Dukascopy (Bid)
Note: This reflects Tsumo’s personal views. Please make investment decisions on your own.