2026.9.11 "Nikkei Average Today's Review and Next Week's Forecast"
【September 11】Nikkei 225 plunges to the 63000 level. Will there be a bounce next week, or another drop?
On September 11, the Nikkei average fell sharply,to the low 63,000 yen range.
In terms of intraday performance, the closing price wasaround 63,358 yen.
From the previous day’s close of 65,270.95 yen on September 10, this is a drop of about 1,900 yen.
Selling was strong in the morning, and there were moments when it fell below 63,000 yen.
Yesterday, it plummeted to 64,186 yen and then surged back more than 1,000 yen to close near the high at 65,270 yen.
In yesterday’s article,
“If it breaks 64,200 yen, mood turns again bearish”
I wrote.
Today, that 64,200 yen level clearly broke to the downside.
Therefore, a short-term view needs to be revised
from neutral to leaning back toward bearish
.
However, today’s decline is not solely due to ordinary selling; it also includes a special factor known as the Major SQ.
That needs to be separated in consideration.
How to view today’s sharp drop
What is most important for today’s Nikkei 225 is
that it fully erased yesterday’s V-shaped rebound
.
On September 10,
64,186 yen
↓
65,270 yen
it rebounded by more than 1,000 yen.
At first glance, this looked like a very strong move.
However, today that rebound was completely driven back up.
In other words, yesterday’s buying was
more likely short-term covering rather than a genuine bottoming buy
.
I attach considerable importance to this point.
Factor for today’s decline ① U.S. inflation concerns and rising interest rates
The biggest external factor is the United States.
The U.S. August Producer Price Index (PPI) released the previous day rose 5.4% year over year.
This confirms that inflation remains strong.
As a result,
the probability of a rate hike by the Fed next week rose to over 70%
and the yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury moved up toward 5%.
When interest rates rise, the present value of future profits declines.
Particularly vulnerable are
AI, semiconductors, and high-tech stocks
.
In the prior day’s U.S. market, NASDAQ and semiconductor stocks were sold off, and that trend spilled over into today’s Tokyo market.
Currently, the Nikkei average is heavily influenced by high-weight growth stocks such as
Advantest
Tokyo Electron
SoftBank Group
.
Thus, the picture is
“U.S. rate hikes = direct hit to the Nikkei 225”
.
Factor for today’s decline ② Oil above $100
Another very large factor is oil.
Brent crude rose to almost $110 per barrel at one point.
WTI is also in the $100 range.
As Middle East tensions worsen, concerns about energy supply through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz have intensified.
Oil spikes are particularly troublesome for Japanese stocks.
Japan is a net importer of oil.
Therefore,
Oil price rises
↓
Corporate costs rise
↓
Domestic prices rise
↓
Interest-rate rise pressure
↓
Corporate profits compress
as a flow.
Furthermore, currently both the United States and Japan are contemplating rate hikes.
In other words, the scenario that stock markets hate the most is
“rates rising while there is economic uncertainty”
.
This intensified risk-off sentiment today.
Factor for today’s decline ③ Major SQ
Today was the calculation day for September futures’ Major SQ.
Because settlements of futures and options coincide, it tends to see trading volume expand more than on ordinary Fridays.
Today’s approximate SQ value for the Nikkei 225 was
63,039.49
yen.
Morning SQ-related selling coincided with a drop in the Nikkei 225 futures to as low as 62,880 yen.
However, later it traded above the SQ value.
This is not entirely a pessimistic材料.
What matters is that
there was buying around the 63,000 yen level
to some extent.
Therefore, not all of today’s roughly 1,900-yen drop should be viewed as
“normal selling pressure.”
Looking ahead to after the SQ, can the 63,000 yen level be sustained next week?
That will reveal the true market tone.
Verifying yesterday’s forecast
In yesterday’s article,
Maintain 65,000 → bullish tilt
Keep 64,200 → neutral
Break 64,200 → bearish again
.
Today’s result is clear.
It broke 64,200 yen.
Therefore,
short-term bearish scenario in effect
.
I will not leave this ambiguous.
However, around 63,000 yen there is buying as well.
Therefore,
is not yet decided.
The price level to watch next has changed.