[9/11금] Dollar-Yen Morning Fixed Observation｜The star is the U.S. CPI at 21:30 (MoM)★★★
This is the morning record for Friday, September 11. Today's main feature is 21:30 U.S. CPI (month-over-month)★★★. The current USD/JPY is 154.38, with an expected range of 153.58 to 155.51.
The answer for the previous business day was incorrect. Below, I will lay out the indicators, charts, and scenarios in order.
First 60 seconds | Today’s economic indicators
Today’s economic indicators (9/11 8:30 — 9/12 8:29 JST)
| Time (JST) | Country | Indicator | Importance | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:50 |  | BSI Manufacturing Index | ★ | 2.5 | -1.8 |
| 08:50 | | Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) | ★ | 7.4% | 7.2% |
| 15:00 |  | Monthly GDP (QoQ) | ★★★ | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 15:00 | | Construction Output (QoQ) | ★ | 0.1% | -0.1% |
| 15:00 | | Trade Balance | ★ | -22.6B | -23.0B |
| 15:00 | | Services PMI (3 months/3 months) | ★ | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| 15:00 | | Industrial Production (QoQ) | ★ | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| 15:00 | | Manufacturing Production (QoQ) | ★ | 0.2% | -0.5% |
| 17:00 |  | Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate | ★ | 5.4% | 5.3% |
| 17:30 | | NY Fed Manufacturing Inflation Expectations | ★ | — | 4.0% |
| 21:30 |  | CPI (MoM) | ★★★ | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 21:30 | | Core CPI (MoM) | ★★★ | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 21:30 | | Core CPI (YoY) | ★★★ | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| 21:30 | | CPI (YoY) | ★★★ | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 23:00 | | Lagarde ECB President Speech | ★★★ | — | — |
| 23:00 | | University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index – Preliminary | ★★ | 51.0 | 51.0 |
| 23:00 | | Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations – Preliminary | ★★ | — | 4.3% |
| Next 03:00 | | Monthly Budget Balance | ★ | -221.1B | -432.3B |
This is what moves today
The 21:30 U.S. CPI MoM forecast is 0.4%, with the previous at 0.1%, and the market seems to have largely priced in some acceleration of the rise. If the result exceeds expectations, the dollar tends to rise; if it misses, it tends to fall. Since the core YoY is expected at 2.4% versus 2.5% previously, the direction could split between the headline and core, allowing for some back-and-forth. This is the most important inflation indicator that directly affects the Fed’s rate decision, so its impact on the USD/JPY can be significant.
USD/JPY current position
Current value154.38 (Previous close 154.42 / Daily change +0.91)
Estimated range153.58 (Pivot S1) ~ 155.51 (Pivot R2)
Main scenarioRange-bound between 153.58 and 155.51. Direction depends on indicators after 21:30.
AlternativeBreak above 155.51 to test 157.66 / Break below 153.58 to 152.89
Daily chart environment
The daily chart is in a congestion with MA20, MA75, and MA200 crossing, showing no clear direction. Current value 154.38 is below MA20 at 157.91. The upper targets are 157.66, then 160.21 per the rule. The 20-day high is 160.39 (9/2), low is 152.89 (9/8). In the pullback from 158.97 to 152.89, the retracements are around 0.382 at 155.21 and 0.5 at 155.93. There is no obvious mechanical support on the downside, and ATR14 is 129 pips.
4-hour chart notable lines
The 4-hour chart shows a downtrend pattern with MA200 > MA75 > MA20, indicating a retracement in a downtrend. The current value is above MA20 at 153.85. On the upside, 157.96 and 158.57; on the downside, a support around 152.91. For the rise from 152.89 to 154.67, roughly 0.382 around 153.99 and 0.5 around 153.78. ATR14 is 59 pips.
Connecting indicators and charts
Today, the 21:30 U.S. CPI (MoM) is likely the most active move. At 15:00, U.K. Monthly GDP (MoM) and at 23:00, Lagarde ECB President’s speech are also in the lineup. Until then, expect a lot of back-and-forth within 153.58–155.51, with movement centered around Pivot P (154.12). The upper bound is Pivot R2, the lower bound Pivot S1 as justification.
Also in the video | Dollar-Yen Morning Fixed Observation
Answer for the previous business day
It was incorrect. The close at 154.42 exceeded the expected range of 152.43–154.01 to finish higher. Since the upside move could not be fully captured, I record it as a miss.
Yesterday, U.S. core PPI (MoM) came in at 0.2% versus 0.3% expected. After the release, the USD/JPY moved by 43.5 pips in 15 minutes and 47.4 pips in one hour, with a shift from up to down after one hour.
Verification data
Average USD/JPY price range one hour after the U.S. CPI release (34 occurrences in the past) was 87 pips, and the direction in the first move continued after one hour 97% of the time. 97% is a very high figure, indicating a tendency to follow the initial move. It’s tough to trade in real life though^^;
Yesterday, a bullish engulfing candle appeared. The next day’s bullish candlestick rate (over the past 10 years, 252 cases) is 55%, with an average change of +6 pips, so the direction is almost evenly split.
Today’s question
Which do you think will be tested first, 155.51 or 153.58?
I’ll publish this week’s answer tomorrow at noon^^
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Thank you for reading this week as well. The tools I use for verification are summarized here.Tsuji @ FX Method Verification Channel
Materials published by FX Method Research Institute on GogoJungle
※ The verification uses USD/JPY hourly data from January 2016 to March 2026. It does not indicate future performance.
Indicator data: edited from Forex Factory / Tradays; Price: Twelve Data (as of 2026-09-11 09:00)
※ This reflects Tsuji’s personal view. Please make your own investment decisions.