NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: September 11, 2026 06:01 JST / Night Settlement

Current Value: 63,870 JPY

Conclusion

In summary, the night session on 9/10 fell from 64,920 to 63,790 by 1,130 points and closed at 63,870. The daily chart shows a large bearish candlestick with a −2.02% decline, and all timeframes — daily, 4H, 1H, and 15m — are aligned downward. The 4H reaction low at 63,710 is only 160 points below the current price, and if this level is broken with a close, the lower bound of the 4H range will be breached, making the third wave of the wave count take hold in earnest.

If price stalls around 63,950–64,150 (15m turning price / 15m retracement high) and fails to push higher, expect a rally to be sold; if price retraces to 64,200–64,400 (1H turning price) and stalls again, re-shorting becomes likely. If 64,410 clearly breaks and holds on a 15m close, trend-following buying may resume toward the 64,700 direction. On the downside, breaking 63,660 on a 15m close would imply a breakout-following sell toward 63,250 and 63,090. A rebound within 63,710–63,910 would be a lower-priced rebound long, but given all timeframes are downward-sloping, protection should be prioritized in a counter-trend setup.

4H Analysis

4H is range-bound with a down-move. The decline from 66,780 on 9/8 by 2,910 points continues, with the turning price at 65,300 and the minor low at 63,710 just 160 below the current price. The retrace high remains unformed.

Both 20EMA and 20SMA are pointing down, and the price sits below all major MAs including the 120EMA (daily equivalent of 20EMA) and 200EMA. This is a classic downtrend where both the 20EMA and 20SMA breached from a strong up move, and prices continue to make lower highs beneath the MAs. If 63,710 is breached on a close, the range lower bound collapses and a downtrend is confirmed. Until then, a recovery above 65,300 on a close keeps the wave structure downward.

From the larger context of the daily chart, the downtrend remains. The daily low at 62,350 has already been closed below. The recent daily candle is a large bearish candle at −2.02% with short wicks on both ends, and the daily turning price at 66,780 sits 2,910 above the current price, indicating that near-term selling remains favored.

1H Analysis

1H is in a downtrend with a down-movement. After retracing to 65,300 within 9/10, price fell to 63,790 by 1,510 points and closed at 63,870. The minor high of 65,300 is still above the current price, and the turning price is at 64,340, 470 points above the current price.

Both 20EMA and 80EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent) and 480EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent) are all pointing downward, with price below all of them. The zone 64,340–64,700 acts as a band where moving averages cluster and resistance forms. If 64,340 is recovered on a close, the 1H wave would turn upward; until then, expect selling on rallies.

15m Analysis

15m is in a downtrend with a down-move. Price fell from 64,920 to 63,790, retraced to 64,120, and closed at 63,870. The intraday low 64,170 has already been breached on a close, and the retrace high 64,120 sits below the low. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows continues. The turning price is 63,950, which is 80 points above the current price.

The 20EMA near 63,980 is downward, and price sits just below it; the 80EMA (1H 20EMA equivalent around 64,300) and the 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent around 64,900) are also below price, forming a downward alignment. The slopes of the MAs align with the short side, so early long entries below the 20MA should be avoided. On the upside, the band around 63,950–64,150 is the first resistance; breaking below 63,790 brings 4H minor low 63,710 into sight on the downside.

MTF State

• Daily: Downward / Downward-move. Turning price 66,780; minor low 62,350 (X); retrace high 73,760. The most recent intraday move started at 64,930, fell to 63,770, closing at 63,870 for a −2.02% large bearish candle. Consider this in the broader context.
• 4H: Range / Downward-move. Turning price 65,300; minor low 63,710; retrace high not formed yet. The minor low is only 160 points below the current price. Note: JP225 CFD chart used; CFD basis turning price 65,355.5; minor low 63,698.5.
• 1H: Downward / Downward-move. Turning price 64,340; minor low 65,740 (X); retrace high 65,300. From 65,300, price fell to 63,790.
• 15m: Downward / Downward-move. Turning price 63,950; minor low 64,170 (X); retrace high 64,120. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows continues.
• MTF Overlap: 63,710 is the 4H minor low, only 160 points below current price, making it a crucial higher-timeframe node. 63,950–64,120 is Zone B; 64,200–64,340 is also Zone B. 65,300 is a high-rank A-equivalent as the 4H turning price and the 1H retrace high coincide, but it is outside today's range. There is no S-rank level established today.
• Consistency: All timeframes (Daily, 4H, 1H, 15m) are aligned downward. Slightly above is 80–280 yen with 15m turning price and retrace high; 160 yen below is 4H minor low.

Important Prices

• 73,760 JPY: Daily retrace high.
• 66,780 JPY: Daily turning price. September 8 high.
• 65,300 JPY: 4H turning price and 1H retrace high coincide. If resolved with a close above, the structure on higher timeframes changes. End of T2 for scenario ①.
• 64,920 JPY: Night session high on 9/10. End of T2 for scenario ①.
• 64,700 JPY: End of T1 for scenario ①.
• 64,660 JPY: Complete retreat for scenario ③.
• 64,410 JPY: Break price for scenario ①. Above 64,340 of the 1H turning price.
• 64,400–64,200 JPY: Zone 2 of scenario ③. Includes 64,340 as 1H turning price.
• 64,170 JPY: 15m minor low (already breached on close = resistance turned).
• 64,150–63,950 JPY: Zone 1 of scenario ③. Includes 64,120 retrace high and 63,950 turning price.
• 63,870 JPY: Current price / night close value.
• 63,910–63,710 JPY: Zone 1 of scenario ②. Includes night low 63,790 and 4H minor low 63,710. Current price lies inside this band.
• 63,710 JPY: 4H minor low. Only 160 points below current price. If closed below, the 4H range lower bound breaches. End of T1 for scenario ③.
• 63,660 JPY: Break price for scenario ④. Neutralizes Zone ②.
• 63,250 JPY: Level watched on the daily chart. End of T2 for scenario ③ and scenario ④'s T1.
• 63,090 JPY: Primary target of the main count. End of T2 for scenarios ③ and ④.
• 62,350 JPY: Daily low minor low (breached on close). End of T2 for scenario ④.
• 62,100 / 60,000 JPY: Targets beyond the primary count.
• 56,400 JPY vicinity: Projected measure on daily chart based on the calculated price range.

Perspective on Wave Count

Trading Ideas

MTF Overlap Rankings Interpretation: S = Turning prices of 4H, 1H, and 15m coincide at similar levels (within ±50 to 100 yen). Do not wait for a close; be ready to act on real-time break or pullback. A = 1H and 15m coincide. Allows real-time lead. B = 15m alone. Enter after a retest or confirmation of a close on the 15m. Note: Option data is not available here, so the usual Option-consistent rank adjustments are not applied.

① Break Follow-Through (Long)

• Watch line: 64,340–64,410 (above 64,340 1H turning price).
• MTF overlap judgment: 1H is a standalone B rank. Wait for retest or 15m close confirmation. Clearly a breakout that contradicts all timeframes.
• Setup criteria: clearly break and hold above 64,410 on a 15m close.
• Initial entry: do not chase on the breakout bar; enter after a retest on 2m or 5m, or on a subsequent bottoming/turning move when 2m/5m re-ascend.
• Confirmation: hold 64,240 and see if a higher low forms on 15m.
• Consolidation/Add condition: recover to 64,520 on a 1H close. Add on the first 15m pullback after confirmation.
• Invalidation: fail to hold 64,240 on a 15m close and retest fails. Full retreat to 63,660.
• Targets: 64,700 → 64,920 → 65,300. Realistic scope today includes up to T1 and first T2.
• MFEs protection: exit at +200 for a breakeven or small profit, or +300 for at least +100 and/or trailing. Since price is moving against you, move to breakeven at +200 if reached.

② Downside Rebound Long

• Watch Zone 1: 63,710–63,910 (Night low 63,790 included; 4H minor low 63,710 included; current price inside). Watch Zone 2: 63,150–63,350.
• MTF overlap judgment: Zone 1 involves a 4H minor low and is a heavy node on higher-timeframes, but all timeframes are in a down-move, so treat as a counter-trend with B rank. Zone 2 is also B.
• Setup criteria: within zone, 15m down-move slows, and a bottom is formed or downside momentum halts. A single long wick or bullish candle alone does not satisfy conditions. Because 20MA on 15m trends downward, avoid premature entries below it.
• Initial entry: when 15m switches to an up-move, or when 2m/5m show an uptrend, a pullback, and a renewed upmove.
• Confirmation: do not update the formed low; check that 15m low keeps rising.
• Consolidation/Add condition: recover to and hold 64,350 on a 1H close (recovery of 64,340 turning price). Since 64,340 is also T2, if not reached, exit with the first-half position.
• Invalidation: clearly break below 63,660. Deep pullback to 63,140. Full retreat to 62,950.
• Scenario switch: if 63,660 is clearly broken, move from ② to ④.
• Targets: 64,120 → 64,340 → 64,620. Given price is in the low range, upside is limited; avoid chasing aggressively.
• MFE protection: exit at +200 for breakeven or small profit, or +300 for at least +100 and/or trailing. When 63,710 is reached, definitely take partial profit and move to breakeven.

③ Rebound Sell (Short)

• Watch Zones 1: 63,950–64,150 (15m turning price, 15m retrace high, and 64,170 a resistance-transformed minor high included). Watch Zone 2: 64,200–64,400 (includes 64,340 turning price).
• MTF overlap judgment: both zones are B rank; wait for retest or 15m close confirmation. Direction is downward across all higher timeframes in alignment with the overall downtrend.
• Setup criteria: after returning to the zones, the upward speed slows, and you confirm a retrace high formation or a downward-move reversal. A single long wick or a single bearish candle is not enough.
• Initial entry: when 15m turns to a down-move or when 2m/5m show a downturn → a pullback → renewed decline.
• Confirmation: the retrace high does not exceed, and 15m continues to form lower highs.
• Add/Reload criteria: invalidation for Zone 1 is 64,190, which sits just below Zone 2 lower bound 64,200; treat as re-entry rather than add, and re-enter if Zone 2 again turns down.
• Invalidation: Zone 1 64,190 and Zone 2 64,460. Full retreat 64,660.
• Scenario switch: if 64,410 is clearly broken and held, switch to ①; if 63,660 breaks clearly, continue selling and switch to ④.
• Targets: 63,710 → 63,250 → 63,090. Since the distance to T1 is only about 340 yen, take partial profits at T1 and confirm closing below 63,660 before extending to T2.
• MFE protection: exit at +200 for breakeven or small profit, or +300 for at least +100 and/or trailing. Upon reaching 63,710, definitely take partial profit and move to breakeven.

④ Break Follow-Through (Short)

• Watch line: 63,660 (below 63,710 4H minor low).
• Leading signal: 63,760 close below (below the night low 63,790) on 15m. Not a standalone condition.
• MTF overlap judgment: 63,710 is a 4H minor low and a higher-timeframe node; breaking below implies the 4H lower boundary is breached. It is B rank, but due to higher-timeframe involvement, it is treated as A rank. However, due to lack of option backing, wait for a clear 15m close breakdown before entering.
• Setup criteria: clearly break below 63,660 on 15m and remain on the downside. Breakaways that only pierce the wick are not valid.
• Initial entry: do not chase immediately after the break; wait for a pullback on 2m/5m to re-enter after a new down move.
• Confirmation: price fails to recover 63,840, or 15m shows a falling retrace high.
• Consolidation/Add criteria: break 63,230 on 1H close. Add on the first rebound after confirmation.
• Invalidation: recover above 63,840 on 15m close. Full retreat 64,140.
• Targets: 63,250 → 63,090 → 62,350. Extending to 62,350 should be done only after confirming 63,090 is closed below.
• MFE protection: exit at +200 for breakeven or small profit, or +300 for at least +100 and/or trailing. Rebound after breaking is common, so move to trailing at +300.

Current Action

• Most Important Line 1: 63,790–63,660 — including night low and 4H minor low 63,710; current price is 80–210 yen below this band. If price breaks lower, it becomes line ②. If 63,660 is clearly broken on a 15m close, the 4H range lower bound breaches and switch to ④ becomes visible, with 63,250 and 63,090 in sight.
• Most Important Line 2: 63,950–64,150 — 15m turning price and 15m retrace high. If it stalls, line ③. If clearly broken upward, next target is 64,200–64,400, and if 64,410 is broken and held, move to ①.

Entry price, trigger, and stop loss are set based on the chart shape at close (each timeframe’s turning price, minor low, and retrace high). If the structure changes over time, unless there is a higher-timeframe structural change, adjust entry price using the lower-timeframe turning prices (e.g., 15m) to better reflect the actual conditions, and adopt the option that better fits the reality compared to the initial value.

※This report is for information purposes and is not investment advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.