9/10 Evening 7:00 PM USDJPY ABCD Analysis (monthly to 1-minute chain status) - Navi+ - GogoJungle | Auto Trading - Market Analysis

In this article,as of 7:00 PM on 9/10,I summarized the USD/JPY monthly-to-1-minute ABCD analysis (the chain status from monthly to 1-minute).

●Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4H, 1H, 15M, 5M, 1M status of support-resistance flips at the 20SMA captured by assigning ABCD to highs and lows can be understood.

●It broke upward around 19:00, butwe assume profit-taking on short positions of the 4H downward CD is taking place,and after this completes,near Weekly 5SMA ≒ Daily 20SMA ≒ 4H 100SMA the moving averages cap price,and one scenario assumes the Daily updates lows via the downward ABCD B→C→D move.On 4H, imagine forming an upward ABCD then a downward ABCD in sequence.

●Below, charts are shown in order from Monthly to 1-Minute, and you should grasp why the above price action is assumed in the process.

●First, a brief explanation of the chart itself.

●The green line is the 20SMA (green eel), the black line is the 5SMA (black eel). When 5SMA > 20SMA, the area between 5SMA and 20SMA is filled green; when 5SMA < 20SMA, it is filled orange, making it clear whether the scene is forming an upward ABCD (green) or a downward ABCD (orange).

●The lower RCI3 oscillator is aligned so that green ▼ corresponds to upward ABCD and orange ▲ to downward ABCD. The overshoot point right after reversal is point B (marked ●), the pullback point is C, and at D the market may or may not be able to update the high or low depending on conditions.

●On the Monthly, from point (A) where candles were capped below the green 20SMA, price broke above the green 20SMA and +1σ to overshoot at (B), then dipped below +1σ and returned toward the green 20SMA, after which it rose to (D) to break above (B),completing an upward ABCDas observed.

●Traders buy (go long) from point (C), butwhen the close at (D) falls below the 23.6% retracement (support) line of the rising CD on the black 5SMA and flips to resistance, more traders start taking profits. Then,when everyone has taken profit, price returns to point (C),margin (collateral) returns to the traders,and the series of trades is complete.

●The basic flow is (A)→(B)→(C)→Long→(D)→Take profit→(C).After margin has returned to traders at point (C),the margin that allows moving price up and down by the (C)→(D) range returns to the traders.

●Assumed trader behavioris:enter at (C),take profit somewhere near (D),and after price returns near (C),depending on market conditions then, enter at the (C) point of a one-step higher moving average,oreven before returning to (C), flip and enter in the opposite direction when a reverse (C) appears on their moving average.

●The chart is still under development, butwith the red dashed box at the bottom and black navigation images, you can grasp the current situation and what traders may do.The triangle+box on the right labeled “Return here” displays the 23.6% retracement support line of the rising CD sotraders can identify the boundary between extending positions or taking profit,and by the position and status of the return to (C) (yellow fill indicates not yet returned), you can see the amount of money in the market and the margin already returned to traders.The light-blue box at (C) lets you gauge the size of margin returned to traders when price revisits (C),and if everyone flips to short, it provides a mechanism to estimate in advance how far price may fall.

●Looking at the current (D)→(C) retracement status,price has returned roughly to the Monthly 20SMA area,and yellow fill still remains.You can see traders who haven’t taken profit yet trying to add to longs to push to new highs.

●If everyone takes profit and returns to (C),the candle body (close) will be below the green 20SMA,so (C) is at a level where traders who haven’t taken profit yet are likely to give up and close profitable positions.

●If you view this profit-taking move from (D)→(C) (the red } section) on the lower Weekly chart, it appears as a downward ABCD.

●On the Weekly,a downward ABCD has completed,reaching the green line (100SMA ≒ roughly the higher timeframe green 20SMA).

●CD is still overshooting lower,and if the overshoot continues and breaks below the green 100SMA,or if the close breaks above the 23.6% retracement (resistance) of the downward CD, it will lead to profit-taking on shorts from (C) and a move toward (C)—these are the two main scenarios.

●Viewing this (C)→(D) drop (the red } section) on the lower Daily chart shows it is in the downward ABCD’s AB phase.

●On the Daily,price is overshooting lower in the downward AB.

●First, the situation is to see how far it can fall while keeping this overshoot,and when the close breaks back above -1σ ending the overshoot, it’s expected to return toward the green 20SMA, then break below (B) and head toward (D).

●The bottom red dashed note “For shorts, wait for the first pullback”meanswe want to target the break below (B) after the first pullback where price, having been above +1σ, breaks below -1σ to overshoot down, then closes back above -1σ—hence this phrasing.

●Also,the overshoot thresholds for Up ▼ and Down ▲ are changed from the standard 1.5σ to 1.0σ,with two display modes: when moves are formed by the green wave (RCI52) andwhen they are formed by the red wave (RCI26)—both are shown. (On this Daily chart,within the green Down ▲,imagine a red pattern of Down ▲ → Up ▼ → Down ▲ inside.ABCD is assumed to be composed of the blue wave within the Up ▼ or Down ▲ context.)

●If you view this (A)→(B) decline (the red } section) on the lower 4H chart, you see a downward ABCD. After this,if the Daily forms B→C and then C→D,on 4H it is expected to go Downward ABCD → Upward ABCD → Downward ABCD.

●After completing a downward ABCD on 4H,price long battled at (D) around the 23.6% retracement (resistance) of the downward CD, between keeping the lower zone or entering the upper zone to return toward (C), then finally broke higher (at 22:00 the 4H close confirmed above the 23.6% retracement (resistance)).

●Iffull-fledged profit-taking occurs, an upward ABCD forms as shown, rising toward (C),with traders’ marginfully returning,and the green 100SMA visible at the top right (≒ higher timeframe green 20SMA area) becomes the Daily traders’ (C), inviting return shorts; in 4H terms, the market then falls by making a downward ABCD and updating lows in two steps.

●Viewing this (D)→(?) section (the red } section) on the lower 1H chart, you can see an upward ABCD.

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●On the 1H chart,you can see it somehow managed to form an upward ABCD.

●Currently, while keeping above the black 5SMA and the 23.6% retracement (support) of the rising CD—i.e., staying in the upper zone—it’s the phase to extend the long positions built at (C).

●Profit-taking depends on the trader; it is assumed to also occur at round numbers, triple tops, Fibonacci, or time-of-day factors.

●Viewing this (C)→(D) section (the red } section) on the lower 15M chart, you can see an upward ABCD.

●On the 15M chart,an upward ABCD formed.

●The 15M close is also holding above the black 5SMA and the 23.6% retracement (support) of the rising CD, suggesting it’s a phase to extend profits as much as possible.

●Viewing this (C)→(D) section (the red } section) on the lower 5M chart, you can see an upward ABCD.

●On the 5M,an upward ABCD has completed, and it is assumed you extend longs built from (C) until price breaks below the black 5SMA or the 23.6% retracement (support) of the rising CD.

●Viewing this (C)→(D) section (the red } section) on the lower 1M chart, you can see an upward ABCD.

●On the 1-minute,an upward ABCD has completed, and it is assumed you extend longs built from (C) until price breaks below the black 5SMA or the 23.6% retracement (support) of the rising CD.

●Ifprice returns up to the 4H downward ABCD point C and then turns into a return short from near the 4H 100SMA, since 4H 100SMA ≒ Daily 20SMA (green eel) ≒ Weekly 5SMA (black eel), the straight-line decline on Weekly short-term MAs can still be maintained.

●Breaking the Weekly 200SMA via a straight-line decline along the Weekly short-term MAs (≒ breaking below Monthly -1σ to form a downward AB) is the key to a full-scale drop, and I strongly want to see a development where the Weekly close falls below the Weekly 200SMA while keeping below the Weekly short-term MAs in a linear decline.