2026.9.10 "Nikkei Average Today's Review and Tomorrow's Forecast"
[September 10] Nikkei Rebounds in V-Shape. Can it hold 65,000 yen tomorrow?
On September 10, the Nikkei Stock Average finished trading at65,270 yen 95 sen.
From the previous close of 65,142 yen 78 sen,up 128 yen 17 sen, up 0.20%
Judging by the numbers alone, it was a modest gain, but today’s market should not be settled as a mere “128 yen rise.”
What was most important today is that,
in the morning it fell to 64,186 yen 68 sen, and then roughly recovered by about 1,084 yen to finish in positive territory.
Morning was selling.
Afternoon was covering (buying back).
It formed a fairly clear V-shaped price movement.
I view today’s market as
“Selling pressure is still strong, but there were buyers willing to buy in the low 64,000s, confirming that.”
as of today.
How to view today’s Nikkei average
The early-session mood was not good.
The U.S. stock market fell the previous day.
Furthermore, against the background of tensions in the Middle East, crude oil prices rose, with Brent briefly exceeding $100 per barrel.
higher crude oil
↓
inflation concerns
↓
rising interest rates
↓
weight on the stock market
were in focus.
The Nikkei average also faced selling pressure in the morning and briefly fell to 64,186 yen.
However, the market mood began to change from there.
In the afternoon, there was buying on dips, and the decline of tech stocks narrowed.
The Nikkei quickly reversed and ended higher than the previous day.
Significance of buying in the low-64,000s
Today, what I want to emphasize most is here.
On September 8, it fell to 65,269 yen and ended at a low.
September 9 also could not recover to 65,142 yen.
In other words, the short-term trend was clearly weak.
And today, it finally broke below 65,000 yen.
Usually,
“breaking below 65,000 yen would accelerate selling,”
is a plausible scenario.
In fact, it briefly declined to 64,186 yen.
But from there it recovered about 1,084 yen.
This means
even though it broke below 65,000 yen, selling all the way down was not the only behavior.
In the low-64,000s, value buyers and short-term shorts likely bought.
Therefore, the downside has some comfort compared with yesterday.
However,
it’s still too early to say the bottom is in
to be sure.
Why a bullish turnaround cannot yet be claimed
The reason is simple.
Although the Nikkei recovered today, it remains in the 65,000s.
The Sept. 7 close was 66,399 yen.
The Sept. 8 high was 66,791 yen.
From there, it remains quite a low level.
In other words,
it was bought at the low, but did not return to an uptrend.
Do not confuse this.
Currently, the Nikkei is approaching a range-like state where
“it is bought around the 64,000s, while selling emerges around the 66,000s.”
The FX market remains important
The USD/JPY is hovering around the 153 level.
Since September, the yen has risen significantly, and markets expect a rate hike at next week’s BOJ policy meeting.
A Reuters survey shows expectations that the BOJ will raise the policy rate to 1.25% on September 18.
In this environment, the old notion of “yen depreciation = higher Japanese stocks” is hard to rely on.
Especially if USD/JPY moves toward 152 or 151, export-related stocks such as automakers face headwinds.
Conversely, if it returns to the 154 range, that would be a positive sign for Japanese stocks.
In looking at today’s Nikkei,
whether the USD/JPY can stay around 153 is still crucial
for the outlook.
Tomorrow, September 11, is quite important
Tomorrow is not a typical Friday.
First,it is the SQ calculation day for September expiration of Nikkei 225 futures and options.
Around the SQ, futures and cash trading tend to be more active, and especially at the open prices may swing more than usual.
Therefore tomorrow,
it is important not to determine the day's direction just by the initial moves after the opening price
.
Moreover, overseas markets will focus on U.S. inflation indicators.
Tonight is the U.S. PPI release.
And tomorrow, the U.S. CPI is due.
With crude oil above $100, markets are more sensitive than ever to inflation indicators.