[FX Seminar] Decide the “rising market” from the “non-rising market”
It is better to decide on “markets not to enter”
Hello, this is Leo.
When trading,
“Which method should I use to win?”
are common questions I hear.
However, I think
as deciding where not to enter
to me.
In reality, many of the reasons you lose in trading come not from the method itself but from
excessively forcing entries
and so on.
There aren’t opportunities every day
On weekdays, the FX market generally moves every day.
If you open a chart,
・Signs appear
・Price nears support/resistance lines
・Short-term trends develop
Then you may feel
“I have to trade something”
or
that urge arises.However,
.
.
If directions are mixed, don’t force a trade
For example,
4-hour chart: falling
1-hour chart: ranging
15-minute chart: rising
Suppose the market is in this state.
In this situation,
“Should I buy or sell?”
deciding forcefully makes for a very difficult trade.
In such times, instead of forcing a direction,
is an option.
Don’t touch markets you don’t understand
When you’re new to trading, you tend to think you must be able to analyze any market.
But, I don’t think you need to trade every market.
I would prioritize scenes like these, for example.
✓ Stop-loss level is clear
✓ There is room to let profits run
Conversely,
Stop-loss level is fuzzy.
There is no distance to target take profit.
In this state, there’s no reason to enter.
.
Even this alone can significantly change trading results.
More entries ≠ better trading
When you stare at a chart for long, you naturally want to trade something.
But more entries do not necessarily increase profits.
For example,
Enter at somewhat marginal points.
Enter only when the conditions are clearly met.
I would choose the latter.
In trading, you should look at expected value, not the number of trades.
Situations in which I skip entering
For me, I won’t force-enter in markets like the following.
✓ Distance to recent highs/lows is short
✓ Profit target cannot be reached relative to stop loss
✓ Just before important economic indicators
✓ In the middle of a high/low, halfway
✓ Chasing right after a sharp rise or fall
Of course, you can still win in such markets.
But what’s important is
but whether it is the market you should take
.
If RR is poor, don’t enter even if direction matches
This is quite important.
For example, even if you think the direction is correct,
Take until stop-loss:30 pips
In this state, I would find it difficult to enter.
Even if direction is correct, because the potential reward is too small relative to the loss from one failed trade.
On the other hand,
Take until take-profit:30 pips
In such a scenario, even with a slightly lower win rate, you will more easily retain overall profitability.
Where to place the stop loss?
How far can you aim for profit?
Looking at these questions, only then should you consider entering.
Waiting is also trading
Open the chart and do nothing for an hour.
Today, you didn’t enter even once.
You don’t have to think of this as
“a day when you could not do anything.”
If you didn’t enter because the conditions weren’t met, that’s a proper decision.
In FX, pressing the button is not the only job.
Watching the market,
deciding “today is different”
is also important.
Rather than aiming to win, reduce unnecessary losses
When trying to improve trading, many people
・Use new indicators
・Try to improve entry accuracy
And of course, sometimes that is necessary.
But before that, look back at your past trades and
how many times did you actually need to enter?
For me, in trading
“how can I reduce unnecessary losses”
than “how can I win more.”
What matters in trading isn’t memorizing many entry points.
This is very important.
If you don’t know the direction, don’t enter.
If RR is poor, don’t enter.
If you don’t know the stop loss level, don’t enter.
Don’t chase markets that have already run.
Just this alone will significantly cut unnecessary trades.
Trade only in markets you understand.
Even if that is simple, I think it’s enough.
“Leo FX college”
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