【9/10 Thu】Dollar-Yen Morning Fixed Observation｜Starring 21:30 U.S. Core PPI (Month over Month)★★★
This is the morning record for September 10 (Thu). Today's star is 21:30 U.S. core PPI (month-over-month)★★★. The USD/JPY current price is 153.34 yen, with an expected range of 152.43 to 154.01 yen.
The answer for the previous business day was △. Below, I will lay out indicators, charts, and scenarios in order.
First 60 seconds | Today’s Economic Indicators
Today’s Economic Indicators (Sep 10, 8:30 JST to Sep 11, 8:29 JST)
Today is a Gotō day.There tends to be more dollar buying pressure toward the 9:55 NYC/London fix.
| Time (JST) | Country | Indicator | Importance | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:15 |  | Trump, U.S. President, remarks | ★★ | — | — |
| 15:00 |  | Germany CPI flash (MoM) | ★ | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 17:00 | | Italy Industrial Production (MoM) | ★ | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 21:15 | | ECB Policy Rate | ★★★ | 2.65% | 2.40% |
| 21:15 | | ECB Statement | ★★★ | — | — |
| 21:30 | | Core PPI (MoM) | ★★★ | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 21:30 | | Producer Price Index (PPI) (MoM) | ★★★ | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 21:30 | | Initial Jobless Claims | ★★ | 205K | 206K |
| 21:45 | | ECB President Press Conference | ★★★ | — | — |
| 23:00 | | Existing Home Sales | ★ | 3.98M | 4.06M |
| 23:00 | | Wholesale Inventories (MoM) | ★ | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| 23:30 | | EIA Natural Gas Storage | ★ | 35B | 30B |
| Next day 01:00 | | EIA Crude Oil Inventories | ★ | -1.4M | -4.5M |
| Next day 02:01 | | 30-year Bond Auction | ★ | — | 5.22|2.4 |
Today’s Movers
Today at 21:30 U.S. core PPI is forecast 0.3% versus prior 0.2%, and PPI at the same time is forecast 0.4% versus prior 0.0%. The market seems to assume domestic price pressures are rebounding. If the data beat expectations, the dollar may rise; if it misses, the dollar may drop. With CPI tomorrow, this is a gauge of how much domestic prices may spill over into CPI. Since it’s a Gotō day, it’s wise to keep in mind the 9:55 NYC/London fix as well.
USD/JPY: Current Position
Current Price153.34 (Previous close 153.50 / -0.46 from the previous day)
Expected Range152.43 (Pivot S2) to 154.01 (Pivot R1)
PrimaryRange between 152.43 and 154.01. Direction awaits U.S. indicators after 21:30
AlternateBreak above 154.01 to test 154.52; break below 152.43 to 151.18
Daily Chart: Environment
The daily chart is in consolidation, with MA lines interwoven (no clear sequence). Three moving averages are mixed, giving no clear directional bias. The current price 153.34 sits below MA20 (158.17). Resistance identified by rules is 157.66 and 160.21; on the downside there is no clear support. The 20-day high is 160.39 (Sept 2), low 152.89 (Sept 8). For the retracement from 158.97 to 152.89, 0.382 is 155.21 and 0.5 is 155.93. ATR14 is 125 pips.
4-Hour Chart: Key Lines
The 4-hour chart shows a downtrend with MA200 > MA75 > MA20, a so-called Perfect Order. The present price is below MA20 (154.31). Upper resistance is at 156.71 and 157.96, both quite distant from current levels. There is no lower support detected, and ATR14 sits at 65 pips, steady.
Connecting Indicators and Charts
At 10:15 there are remarks by President Trump; at 21:15 the ECB policy rate and statement; at 21:45 the President's press conference; at 21:30 U.S. core PPI and PPI, and Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. During the day, price action tends to be small around pivot P (153.47), with the expected range around Pivot S2 (152.43) to R1 (154.01). If prices break 154.01 after the indicators, 154.52 may come into play; if they break 152.43, downward pressure toward 151.18 is more likely.
In the Video Too | USD/JPY Morning Routine
Answer for the Previous Business Day
△. Yesterday I anticipated a range of 153.09 to 154.63, but the price briefly breached the lower end. Yet the close at 153.50 remained inside the range, so the verdict is △.
Yesterday’s USD/JPY closed at 153.50, down 0.46 from the previous day, with a range of 104 pips. Although Lagarde’s ECB remarks did not yield the expected price moves, within an hour there was a 13.5 pips move downward; the trend was downward.
Validation Data
The average USD/JPY range one hour after U.S. PPI release (past 36 times) is 52 pips, and the probability the initial direction continued after one hour is 75%. The move size itself isn’t dramatic, but the initial move tends to continue more often than expected.^
The positive-bar rate the day after three consecutive bearish candles in the past 10 years (244 cases) is 56%, with an average move of +9 pips. It’s practically a five-minute timeframe; there isn’t a strong tendency for further declines. Since the average move is small, it’s hard to expect a large rebound.
Today’s Question
Which will be tested first, 154.01 or 152.43?
If you’d like, please tell me with a like or a comment.
FX Methods Institute published on GogoJungle
Notes: The validation uses USD/JPY hourly data from January 2016 to March 2026. This does not guarantee future performance.
Indicator data: based on Forex Factory / Tradays with custom edits. Price: Twelve Data (as of 2026-09-10 09:00)
Note: This is Stemming’s personal view. Please make investment decisions on your own.