NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: September 10, 2026 06:14 JST / Night Session Close

Current Value: 64,360 JPY

Subject: For intraday session (Thu, 9/10)

Conclusion

In conclusion, the night of 9/9 fell from 65,340 to 64,150 by 1,190, closing at 64,360. The 1H trend indicator switched from a range to a downtrend, and the 4H reversal price also shifted down from 66,780 to 65,790. Both 4H and 1H show a downward wave, with 15m in a downtrend, and all timeframes’ moving averages are aligned higher than the price. On the options side, there are no thick support levels below the current price that would slow the downside; 64,500 is −7.61, and 64,000 is −10.41, becoming more negative the lower you go.

If price stalls in the 64,620–64,820 zone (15m support-turned-resistance with a rising 15m low), expect a retreat sell; if price retraces to 64,850–65,030 (1H reversal price and 15m retest high) and stalls again, consider selling again. If the price clearly breaks and closes above 65,040 (15m close) and sustains, switch to a breakout-following buy targeting the 65,340 direction. If price breaks below 64,110 on a 15m close, the downside target becomes 63,710 and 63,090. A rebound in 64,150–64,350 or 63,760–63,960 would be a lower-side rebound long, but due to weak downside momentum, risk protection should be prioritized.

4H Analysis

4H is range-bound in a downtrend. After hitting 66,780 on 9/8, it failed to sustain the pullback and fell 2,620 to 64,360. The reversal price moved down from 66,780 to 65,790, with the earlier support at 63,710 now 650 above the current price. The retrace high remains undefined. The latest candle opened at 64,170 and closed at 64,360 with a +0.30% gain, staying within a small rebound from the low.

Both the 20EMA (around 65,300) and the 20SMA (around 65,650) are turning downward; the price sits below the 120EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent around 65,500) and the 200EMA (around 65,850), i.e., below all major MAs. Since a major rally has already breached the 20EMA/20SMA together, a move to lower after a breakout of the prior high remains a warning until a new high is broken. If price closes below 63,710, the lower bound of the range is breached.

1H Analysis

1H is in a downtrend and downwave. The trend shift from range to down has occurred. Price fell 1,640 from 65,790 to 64,150, closing at 64,360. The support at 65,740 has already been broken on a closing basis, and the retrace high remains high at 65,790. The reversal price is 64,980, about 620 above the current price.

The 20EMA (around 64,650), the 80EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent; around 65,100), and the 480EMA (daily 20EMA equivalent; around 65,600) are all downward; price sits below all of them. The band 64,650–65,100 is likely to act as a resistance band with converging MAs. If price recovers beyond 64,980 on a close, the 1H wave could resume higher, but until then a retracement-laden environment favors selling on rallies.

15m Analysis

15m shows a downtrend with an upward wave. It fell from 65,340 to 64,320, retraced to 64,980, then fell again to 64,150 and recovered to 64,360 at close. The retrace high was stepped down from 65,340 to 64,980, and the support at 64,810 has already been broken on a close. The reversal price is 64,150, about 210 below the current price.

The 20EMA (around 64,300) is downward, with price just above it; the 80EMA (1H 20EMA equivalent; around 64,700) and the 320EMA (4H 20EMA equivalent; around 65,150) are also downward and sit above the price. The MA slopes are aligned in a short-side direction, so early long entries on dips beneath the 20MA should be avoided. The zone 64,620–64,820 is likely to cap the upside, while a break below 64,150 would turn the short-term wave downward again.

MTF State

• 4H: Range / Downward wave. Reversal price 65,790; pullback low 63,710; retrace high not formed. Reversal price shifted from 66,780 to 65,790. All MAs point downward and price sits below them.
• 1H: Downward / Down wave. Reversal price 64,980; pullback low 65,740 (X); retrace high 65,790. Trend indicators switched from range to down.
• 15m: Down / Upward wave. Reversal 64,150; pullback low 64,810 (X); retrace high 64,980. Retrace high lowered from 65,340 to 64,980.
• MTF Overlap: 64,980 is an A-rank that perfectly matches 1H reversal price and 15m retrace high; 64,150 is B; 63,710 is the 4H pullback low but is a higher-timeframe node. 65,790 matches 4H reversal price and 1H retrace high but is out of the day’s range. No S-rank condition is met this time.
• Consistency: All 4H, 1H, and 15m point downward. The 15m reversal price sits 210 below the current price, and the 4H pullback low sits 650 below the current price.

Key Prices

• Above 66,500: Net GEX indicates a thick deceleration zone with +8 or more. Outside the day's range.
• 66,090: Final target of setup ① T2.
• 65,790: Level where 4H reversal price and 1H retrace high coincide. A close above this level would alter the higher-timeframe structure. Target of setup ① T2.
• 65,340: Night high on 9/9. ① T1.
• 65,303: Zero Gamma (the boundary where price behavior changes). Current price is well below this.
• 65,250–65,000: A band where price action tends to amplify. 65,000 is building a Put Wall (strong demand at low prices), but Net GEX is −3.95, i.e., negative.
• 65,040–64,980: 1H reversal price and 15m retrace high coincide in A-rank. Break price for setup ① and Zone 2 for setup ③.
• 64,820–64,620: Zone including the 15m pullback low 64,810 (closed below; resistance turned). Zone 1 of setup ③ and Zone 2 of setup ② T1.
• 64,500: Net GEX −7.61. If breached, downside accelerates.
• 64,360: Current price / Night close.
• 64,350–64,150: Zone including 15m reversal price 64,150 and the night’s low. Zone 1 of setup ② and T1 of setup ③.
• 64,110: Break price for setup ④. Neutralizes Zone ②.
• 64,000: Net GEX −10.41, the largest negative near current price. Breach could accelerate and add volatility.
• 63,960–63,760: Zone ② Zone 2. Above 4H pullback low 63,710.
• 63,710: 4H pullback low. If this is broken on close, it marks third wave in major counts. Target for setup ③ T2 and setup ④ T1.
• 63,500 / 63,000: Net GEX −4.10 / −7.51. The deeper price goes, the more negative it becomes.
• 63,090 / 62,100 / 60,000: Targets under major counts.

Wave Count Perspective

Trade Ideas

MTF Overlap Rank Interpretation: S = 4H, 1H, and 15m reversal prices coincide at the same level (within ±50–100 yen). Breakouts/declines can be traded in real time without waiting for a close. A = 1H and 15m coincide, allowing real-time primacy. B = 15m alone; wait for a test or 15m close confirmation before entering. Option alignment acts as a corrective to adjust rank (supportive wind if B→A or A→S; headwind if A→B or B→hold).

① Breakout Follow-Through (Long)

• Watch Line: 64,980–65,040 (1H reversal price and 15m retrace high).
• MTF Overlap: Perfect match A-rank. Break above close indicates 1H wave turns higher, but note that both 4H and 1H are in a downwave, so it is a breakout against the higher-timeframe trend.
• Setup Condition: Clear breakout above 65,040 on a 15m close and sustained.
• Initial Entry: Do not chase on the breakout; wait for a retest and enter on a 2m or 5m rally, or after a brief pullback and upturn on 2m/5m.
• Confirmation: Maintain 64,870 and watch for higher lows on the 15m.
• Positioning & Add-ons: Reclaim 65,150 on a 1H close; add on the first 15m pullback after confirmation.
• Invalidation: If 64,870 fails on a 15m close and retest fails. Full exit at 64,110.
• Target: 65,340 → 65,790 → 66,090. Only after reclaiming 65,790 on a close does the higher-timeframe structure change.
• Option Alignment: There are no thick resistance levels above up to 66,500, so a breakout could extend higher (supporting wind) → Rank A to S. However, against higher-timeframe direction, wait for a clear retest before acting.
• MFE Protection: If price moves +200 yen, exit at break-even or small profit; +300 yen to secure at least +100 or use a trailing stop. Consider bringing forward entry near 65,340.

② Downside Rebound Long

• Watch Zone 1: 64,150–64,350 (15m reversal price and night low included; current price just above). Zone 2: 63,760–63,960 (above 4H pullback low 63,710).
• MTF Overlap: Zone 1 is B-rank with favorable Option alignment; Zone 2 is also B, but 63,710 is a major higher-timeframe node. With both 4H and 1H in down waves, treat as a counter-trend long and avoid over-committing.
• Setup Condition: In-zone price action shows overbought-down momentum slowing, with a price low forming and a stop of the downside. One shadow or a single bullish candle is not sufficient. Since the 20MA on 15m is downward, avoid aggressive buy wins beneath it.
• Initial Entry: When 15m transitions into an up wave, or when 2m/5m show a rising trend → pullback → renewed rally.
• Confirmation: The formed low is not broken and 15m shows higher lows ongoing.
• Position & Add-ons: Reclaim and hold 64,620 on 1H close. Since 64,600 is also T1, if not reached, exit with the initial position only.
• Invalidation: Break clearly below 64,110. From a deep pullback zone, expect 63,710. Full exit at 63,560.
• Scenario Shift: If price clearly breaks 64,110, move to setup ④. If price breaks above 64,040 and sustains, switch to setup ①.
• Target: 64,600 → 64,810 → 64,980. If 64,980 is closed above, carry over to setup ①.
• Option Alignment: Below, there are no thick deceleration levels; 64,000 (−10.41) and 64,500 (−7.61) can accelerate downside if breached (headwinds) → B hold. Zone 2 also shows large negatives (−7.51) → B hold.
• MFE Protection: If price moves +200, exit at break-even or small profit; +300 to secure at least +100 or trailing. Require all partial profits leave door to break-even as price approaches 64,150.

◎ ③ Sell on Retracement (Short)

• Watch Zone 1: 64,620–64,820 (includes 64,810 resistance-turned-support). Zone 2: 64,850–65,030 (includes 64,980 where 1H reversal price and 15m retrace high coincide).
• MTF Overlap: Zone 1 is B-rank but Option alignment is favorable making it A; Zone 2 is A-rank and can lead in real-time declines. All of 4H, 1H, and 15m align downward, so this is a retracement-sell in the same direction as the higher timeframes.
• Setup Condition: After price retraces to the zone, the pace of ascent slows, confirm retrace high formation or downward wave reversal. Do not rely on a single long upper wick or a single bearish candle.
• Initial Entry: When 15m reverses to a downward wave, or when 2m/5m show a downtrend → a run-down → further decline occurs, enter.
• Confirmation: The retrace high does not get updated and 15m continues to make lower highs.
• Add-ons/Re-entry: The breakout of Zone 1’s invalidation 64,870 lies inside Zone 2, so treat as re-entry rather than add-on; re-enter if downward turn occurs again in Zone 2.
• Invalidation: Break clearly above 64,870 in Zone 1 or break 65,110 in Zone 2. Full exit at 65,310.
• Scenario Shift: Clear break above 65,040 and sustain would switch to setup ①; break of 64,110 would switch to setup ④.
• Target: 64,150 → 63,710 → 63,090. Extend beyond 63,710 would carry over to setup ④.
• Option Alignment: Below current price, there are no thick deceleration levels; 64,500, 64,000, and 63,000 see increasing negative pressure the deeper price goes (favorable wind) → Zone 1 B→A, Zone 2 A hold. However near 64,000 price movement tends to be choppier.
• MFE Protection: If price moves +200, exit at break-even or small profit; +300 to secure at least +100 or trailing. Ensure partial profit is taken near 64,150.

④ Breakout Follow-Through (Short)

• Watch Line: 64,110 (15m reversal price 64,150 and the night low below).
• MTF Overlap: 64,110 is B-rank but Option alignment is favorable making it A. This aligns with a breakout that matches the downward momentum of 4H and 1H.
• Setup Condition: Clear lower break of 64,110 on a 15m chart and remain below.
• Initial Entry: Do not chase immediately after the breakout; wait for a pullback on 2m/5m or a new down-turn after a brief upside correction to re-enter.
• Confirmation: Price does not recover above 64,290 and 15m shows a lower high with a pullback to confirm.
• Add-ons/Increase: Break 63,660 on a 1H close (below 4H pullback low 63,710); add on the first pullback following confirmation.
• Invalidation: Price recovers above 64,290 on a 15m close. Full exit at 64,620.
• Target: 63,710 → 63,090 → 62,100. Extend beyond 63,710 only after confirming close below it.
• Option Alignment: Below current price, there are no thick deceleration levels; the deeper the price goes, the more negative pressure (favorable wind) → Zone 1 B→A, Zone 2 A hold. However, near 64,000 price action can be volatile, so wait for a clear close break before entering.
• MFE Protection: If price moves +200, exit at break-even or small profit; +300 to secure at least +100 or trailing. Move forward to balance near 64,000 and exit fully when 63,710 is reached.

Current Action

• Most Important Line 1: 64,620–64,820 — zone including the 64,810 15m low turned resistance, currently 260–460 above the current price. If it stalls, refers to setup ③. A clear break above then targets 64,850–65,030, and breaking 65,040 sustained targets setup ①.
• Most Important Line 2: 64,150–64,110 — below the 15m reversal price and the night’s low. If price stops at 64,150, setup ②. If price clearly breaks 64,110 on a 15m close, switch to setup ④ and consider 63,710.

Entry price, trigger, and stop losses are set based on the chart shape at the close (reversal prices, support lows, and retrace highs of each timeframe). If the structure changes over time, unless the higher-timeframe structure changes, adjust entry prices using the lower-timeframe wave reversal prices to better reflect actual conditions, and adopt the option with the best fit.

※1H trend shift from range to down has occurred, and all of 4H, 1H, and 15m point downward. The long-side setups (① and ②) are against higher-timeframe direction, so protect early and avoid chasing.

※On the options side, there are few thick levels that slow from current price in either direction. Below, 64,500 is −7.61; 64,000 is −10.41; the lower you go, the more negative it becomes. The SQ is on 9/11 with two business days left, but current price sits 640 below the 65,000 Put Wall, making pull effects hard to realize.

※This report is for information purposes and not investment advice; please make your own investment decisions and bear responsibility for them.