[September 9 Analysis Report] Cross yen, be careful of the pullbacks on the weekly chart
Be careful
Hello, this is Leo.
This time, we will look at the currently sharply fallingcross-yenpair.
Recently, cross-yen has shifted from a long-standing strong uptrend to a situation where selling has become quite easy.
However,
and being all-in on short positions is a bit dangerous
I think.
Reason is that,there is a weekly pullback candidate ahead.
Cross-yen is currently breaking down on the Daily chart
As of now, on the daily chart, the cross-yen is showing a noticeably broken structure.
Among currencies that have long been in an uptrend, more pairs have broken important lows.
Therefore,
in the short- to medium-term, it is certain that selling could be targeted.
There is no doubt about that.
But,a time frame higher than the dailyis important.
There is a weekly chart above the daily
Even if the daily chart breaks down,
it does not necessarily mean the weekly chart above it is completely broken.In fact,for cross-yen which has risen for so long,
there is still a possibility that it remains within a pullback range
.
In other words,
even if it looks like a selling market on the daily chart,on the weekly chart there is
There are points on the weekly chart that seem likely to react
When viewing each cross-yen on the weekly chart, there are several points that may react below.
・Horizontals that have been watched in the past
・Price ranges of previous highs and lows
・Pullback candidates to large upswings
These kinds of points can be easily overlooked if you only look at shorter timeframes.
However, if the long-term trend is still alive,
.
Carrying too many short positions in the short term is dangerous
Currently the decline is strong, so it is easy to hold shorts.
However, if you carry those shorts into an important weekly-point as-is,
all at once
.
In particular, when the decline continues,
you may think, “it will go down further,”
and want to hold the shorts.
But, if at that timing weekly-buying comes in, it could produce a substantial rebound.
Identify weekly pullback candidates for each cross-yen first
Therefore, in the current market,
↓
② Check weekly pullback candidates
↓
③ Look for short-term timeframe turning near those areas
I think this order is quite important.
Rather than just thinking about selling,
you should consider the question,
“How far can I sell?”
in conjunction with the above.The key is the hourly chart turning
This time, what I consider most important
.
Even if you reach weekly pullback candidates, it does not mean you should buy immediately.
What matters is
whether the hourly chart actually turns to the buy side at that price level
.
weekly pullback buying may start to function. In this case,consider closing short positions temporarily.
even if there is a weekly pullback candidate, there is no buying pressure. In that case,there is a possibility of further decline ignoring the weekly pullback.
It is not "buy because the weekly line is reached"
This is quite important.
Even if there are horizontals or uptrend lines,
it does not guarantee a rebound.
Lines are, after all,
“locations where a reaction might occur.”
Whether actual buying occurs there cannot be known without looking at shorter timeframes.
not
Reaching a line → confirm short-term turning → decision
Two scenarios I am considering now
Reacting at weekly horizontals and uptrend lines, and the hourly chart turns buy. In this case, close shorts and consider switching to buying.
Even if weekly important points are reached, if the hourly chart does not turn, selling pressure remains strong and could lead to a larger decline.
My current view
Currently, cross-yen is still
short-term biased towards selling
in my view.
However, as weekly pullback candidates approach on the higher timeframe, if you continue holding shorts
becomes very important.
Conversely, if the weekly important point is reached and the hourly chart remains in a downtrend,
the weekly pullback candidate itself may break lower, accelerating the decline.
.
Currently, cross-yen is broken on the daily chart and is in a market where selling is easier in the short term.
However, on the higher timeframe weekly chart,
pullback buying points for the long uptrend are approaching.
Therefore, if you are going to carry shorts, be sure to understand weekly horizontals and uptrend lines in advance.
And, what will be most important around those areas is
.
If the hourly chart turns buy, shorts should be closed for now.
If it does not turn, it is possible to ignore the weekly pullback candidate and see further declines.
This time, I want to look at the “weekly line” and the “hourly turning” in combination.
“Leo FX college”
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