The day I stopped looking for methods changed — the steps for people who can’t win to create their own way
“Another new method, saved.”
“Even though I’m studying, my account balance keeps decreasing.”
“Even if I lose, I can’t explain what went wrong.”
If you have a hunch,
please give me a little time.
The reason I could not win wasn’t
the number of methods.
For years, I had been chasing the wrong target,
the whole time.
It isn’t just you who can’t win
First,
allow me to tell you one thing.
According to data published by foreign financial authorities,
personal trading accounts
have a loss rate of seven to nine成
or more.
In other words,
losing isn’t something special;
it's rather “normal.”
However,
I’m not saying this to make excuses.
I myself have over 20 years of FX experience.
Before that,
I worked as an engineer for about 20 years.
I thought I was strong at reasoning things through.
I can also create tools and automated EAs.
I’ve developed more than 200 tools and EAs.
I participated in many high-priced seminars as well as methods.
Even so,
the period I couldn’t win was really long.
Whenever I found a new “holy grail,”
I’d think, “This time for sure,”
and if results didn’t appear in a few weeks,
I’d search for the next one.
In that cycle, I even developed a posi- posi- disorder.
Just opening the chart and not having any position felt unsettled.
When I started losing,
to recover I would break my own rules further.
Back then,
I was trying to find a method...
I was just running away.
Confidence only comes after you win
Many people who sell a method
say this:
“With this method, you can be confident before you enter.”
I, too,
believed that line and
paid money many times.
But,
now I clearly understand.
The order is reversed.
“Pre-entry confidence”
is something that finally appears after you have a track record of success.
If you’ve never won with a method, you cannot have confidence.
Therefore, what you should search for isn’t the “method,”
but the “track record” that shows you have made the method your own.
And that track record cannot be bought from others.
You have to accumulate it yourself, step by step.
Reading this far, you may wonder if you will feel zero momentum until you win.
That isn’t the case.
The confidence itself comes after you win.
However, the sense that you are getting closer to the core can be seen in numbers even while you are not winning.
If you move forward step by step,
even if you aren’t yet winning,
you can gradually get closer to your own “winning form.”
And you can verify that progress by numbers, which is the next procedure I will share.
Why you can study a lot yet never accumulate
The reason is simple.
Every time you change the method,
all prior validation resets to zero.
Trying 100 methods ten times each
does not become “1000 experiences.”
It’s more like “10 experiences across 100 types.”
None of them become data you can judge for yourself.
The common practice of chasing the holy grail
is to look at past charts and
select a method that “was winning under this shape.”
and there is no reason why it would win.
Because there is no reason,
when you lose, you don’t know what to fix.
“Environment recognition was weak.”
“Mental state was poor.”
These vague reflections
end up finishing without real improvement.
If you continue like this for years,
you’ll keep stumbling in the same place.
The day I stopped looking
The turning point came after a losing trade.
As usual, I searched for the cause of the loss
and tried to find a new method,
when suddenly
my hand paused.
“This—
I did the exact same thing last year as well.”
That day, I stopped looking for methods.
Instead,
on a blank sheet I wrote out
“When do I win?”
That’s all.
From there,
things began to change gradually.
From now on, I will convey, in order, the procedures that changed.
There is not a single new method involved.
And,
as a bonus for those who read this to the end,
I will give away the analysis tool I use called “TradeAna” for free.
It automatically turns into numbers the market conditions at the times I entered in the past.
By lining up and comparing those numbers,
you can identify your own winning conditions
and the conditions to avoid because they are prone to losses.
In other words, you will be able to find your own filter more easily.
I, myself,
using this tool,
discovered several patterns that tend to make me lose and incorporated them into my entry criteria.
