【9/9 Wed】Dollar/Yen Morning Fixed Observation｜Star is Lagarde's remarks at 02:00 JST tomorrow ECB President Christine Lagarde★★★
This is the morning record for Wednesday, September 9. Today's centerpiece is the speech by Christine Lagarde, ECB President, at 02:00 tomorrow★★★. The current USD/JPY price is 153.73 yen, with an expected range of 153.09 to 154.63 yen.
The answer for the previous business day was a △. Below are indicators, charts, and scenarios in order.
First 60 seconds｜Today’s economic indicators
Today's economic indicators (9/9 8:30 to 9/10 8:29 JST)
| Time (JST) | Country | Indicator | Importance | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:50 |  | Money stock M2 (YoY) | ★ | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 15:00 | | Capital goods orders, preliminary (YoY) | ★ | — | 50.4% |
| 15:45 |  | France industrial production (MoM) | ★ | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 18:42 | | Germany 10-year bond auction | ★ | — | 3.26|1.1 |
| 21:15 |  | ADP weekly employment | ★ | — | — |
| 21:16 | | ADP weekly employment | ★ | — | 11.8K |
| Tomorrow 02:00 | | Lagardé appearance ECB President speech | ★★★ | — | — |
| Tomorrow 02:00 | | Nagel, Bundesbank President speech | ★★ | — | — |
| Tomorrow 02:01 | | 10-year bond auction | ★ | — | 4.68|2.5 |
| Tomorrow 05:30 | | API Weekly Crude Inventory | ★ | — | — |
| Tomorrow 08:01 |  | UK Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance | ★ | -30% | -30% |
Today’s movers
The most important is Lagarde ECB President’s speech at tomorrow 02:00. With the ECB policy interest rate (expected 2.65%, previous 2.40%) due the next day at 21:15, the focus is on whether the tone of monetary policy can be inferred beforehand. A hawkish interpretation would push the euro higher; a cautious stance would push euro lower, and if the euro-dollar moves drive the dollar overall, it could ripple into USD/JPY. Liquidity is thin in the late night, so caution is warranted^^;
USD/JPY — current position
Current price153.73 (previous business day close 153.96 / change -0.38)
Expected range153.09 (Pivot S1) ～ 154.63 (Pivot R1)
Primary scenarioConsolidation in the 153.09–154.63 range. Direction awaits moves during overseas hours
AlternativeBreak above 154.63 to test 155.29 / break below 153.09 to 152.23
Daily chart environment
The daily chart is in a range with moving averages crossing, without a clear directional trend. The current 153.73 is below MA20 at 158.46. Useful upper targets identified by rule: 157.66 and 160.03, while there are no clear lower targets via automatic detection. The 20-day low just updated to 152.89 (9/8), and the pullback from 158.97 to 152.89 would have a 0.382 level near 155.21. ATR14 is 126 pips.
Key line on the 4-hour chart
The 4-hour chart shows a downtrend with MA200 > MA75 > MA20, and the current price is below MA20 at 155.03. Upper targets are 156.71 and 158.60; there is no mechanical lower target yet. The pullback from 160.39 to 152.89 reaches a 0.382 level around 155.76, and the 4-hour ATR14 is relatively calm at 72 pips.
Connecting indicators and charts
Today, on the fact sheet, there are no highly anticipated indicators scheduled. On days like this, reactions at the edges of the range tend to be observed calmly. The pivot is at P (153.76), roughly at the current price, with R1 at 154.63 and S1 at 153.09. The clue may come from which edge is touched first during overseas hours.
In video too｜USD/JPY Morning Fixed Observation
Answers from the previous business day
△. The lower bound of the range was briefly breached, but the close at 153.96 returned inside the range. Since the lower bound could not be picked up cleanly, it is conservatively rated as △^^;
Yesterday’s Monthly Labor Statistics: total cash earnings (YoY) came in at 4.7% vs. a forecast of 3.8%. Within 15 minutes after the release, it moved 17.8 pips, and within 60 minutes, 50.1 pips downward. USD/JPY closed at 153.96, down 0.38 yen from the previous day’s close, with a price range of 153 pips and a bearish candle.
Validation data
The average USD/JPY range during Tokyo hours (9–15) on Wednesdays over the past 155 occurrences is 59 pips, and the daily average range is 134 pips. So roughly half of the day is in Tokyo hours, and the rest during Europe and America. Today, since the main event is deep into the night, we’ll see whether this distribution holds.
The陽線 (bullish) rate on the day after updating the 20-day low (over the past 10 years, 232 occurrences) was 57%, with an average move of +5 pips. The direction is almost evenly split, and not a figure that can claim clear edge.
Today’s question
Between 154.63 and 153.09, which one do you think will be tested first?
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Materials published by FX Method Research Institute on GogoJungle
※ The validation uses USD/JPY hourly data from January 2016 to March 2026. It does not indicate future performance.
Indicator data: edited from Forex Factory / Tradays; Price: Dukascopy (Bid) as of 2026-09-09 09:00
※ This is Stemi’s personal view. Please make your own investment decisions.