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たろう
09/08/2026 20:20
Release： 09/08/2026 20:20
Update： 09/08/2026 20:20
たろう
Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : -
We have carefully selected and provided from MT4 EA and indicators that we have steadily built, used, and improved for over 10 years, with a sincere belief that they will be helpful to everyone. On X, we write articles that aim for up to the 300% level on lower timeframes based on the upper timeframe +1σ (5MA). We also tweet about FX on X. We feel that the world revolves around the number 300.
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9/9 9:00 AM USD/JPY Situation (Daily -2σ lower band walk continues; Monthly 20SMA ≒ Weekly 100SMA around)

＜9/9 9:00 AM dollar/yen (week) status＞


●Daily -2σ band walk continuing with a linear decline.

(The daily 5SMA ≒ 4-hour 13SMA ≒ 1-hour 50SMA correspond to a wave)

●Price is approaching the monthly 20SMA ≒ weekly 100SMA area, and looking at the weekly chart, the moving averages are densely clustered around this area, making it look like a potential breakout through a linear decline.

●Bearish outlook considers that on the weekly level, a linear decline (the candle bodies staying below 5SMA–10SMA, closing prices stay below) could breakthrough the weekly 200SMA, and whether the monthly close can be confirmed below -1σ is the key point from a bearish perspective.

●On the 4-hour chart, the decline occurs in the black④ downward ABCD wave, which means from point A, the farthest move away from the black 200SMA, then undercutting the black 200SMA leads to an overshoot and decline (this is point B), and a return toward the vicinity of the 200SMA where it turns downward (around point C) a selling-into-rally entry (short) is made, and it falls from point B past point D.

●A soccer player is drawn, but for a soccer player, from the color of C point (the downward-moving average) they receive a pass from point B and carry the ball to point D by passing, shooting, or dribbling.

●For a trader, they would enter a short at the downward-turning point C and take profits somewhere beyond point B past point D.

●Current around 151.5 is the point B for the soccer players made by the blue ① 20SMA, red ② 50SMA, and green ③ 100SMA on the 4-hour chart, and each player is waiting to progress the ball to point D beyond point B via a pass or a shot when the candle reaches their color’s moving average.

●Similar downward ABCD movement is forming on the 1-hour, 15-minute, 5-minute, and 1-minute charts, and just like on the 4-hour chart, I personally plan to re-enter a short at point C and take profits somewhere beyond point B past point D.


＜Finally＞

●>Personally, breaking below the monthly 20SMA ≒ weekly 100SMA, a weekly-level linear decline (waves below the daily 20–50SMA in magnitude), breaking below the weekly 200SMA as well, and a development where the monthly close drops below the monthly -1σ would be desirable.