Financial Instruments Business Operator Kanto Finance Bureau Director (Kinsho) No. 1960 / Membership Association Investment Trusts Association, Japan Membership No. 012-02323 Go to GogoJungle Home
icon List
カタナ
09/08/2026 17:34
Release： 09/08/2026 17:34
Update： 09/08/2026 17:34
カタナ
Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s up to the present, I have remained involved in the financial markets, experiencing various aspects of equity, bond, foreign exchange, and derivative markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company, where I worked in market-making for domestic and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for client-facing activities, gaining practical experience with interest rate, currency, and credit risks. Later, at a foreign securities company, I engaged in marketing to hedge funds and the formation of new funds, contributing to investment strategies on the institutional investor side, product design, and risk management. After going independent, I have continued systematic trading in which discretionary judgment alone is not relied upon, with the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena. Currently, I combine Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility to pursue reproducible trading judgments. Drawing on many years of market experience and practical futures trading perspectives, I focus on market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market outlooks. Markets are always changing, but I believe the important thing is not to “guess the forecast” but to preemptively organize, in advance, “at which points and under what conditions will I act, and how.”
Article cover image

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory | 65,280–65,480 Retracement Sell and 64,860 Break Monitoring [9/9]

Date and Time: September 9, 2026 06:11 JST / Night Drawdown

Current price: ¥65,040

1. Today's Conclusion — Read in 30 Seconds

Basic stance: prioritize selling on rebounds. However, beware of a SQ rebound near 65,000.
During 9/8, the 4H rebound high of 66,560 was exceeded on a close to 66,780, but subsequently plunged to 64,920, down 1,860, failing to sustain the breakout. The 4H and 1H are in a range and down move, the 15m is in a downtrend and decline; all major MAs are above the price. The Gamma environment has reversed from POSITIVE to NEGATIVE, and ATM IV and Put Skew are rising. Therefore, if it stalls around 65,280–65,480, prioritize③ the sell on rallies; if it retraces to 65,500–65,700 and stalls again, switch to the second monitoring zone for selling again. On the other hand, around 65,000 there is heavy Call/Put OI at SQ pin levels, so if a rebound structure forms at 64,880–65,080 or 64,560–64,760, consider a long on the downside. If 65,760 breaks decisively and holds, move to position ①; if 64,860 decisively breaks, switch to position ④.

Main View③ Sell on Rallies: First monitoring zone 65,280–65,480; Second monitoring zone 65,500–65,700
Opponent② Downside Rebound Long: First monitoring zone 64,880–65,080; Second monitoring zone 64,560–64,760
Direction Reversal (Down)④ Breakout-following Short: Break below 64,860
Direction Reversal (Up)① Breakout-following Long: Break above and hold 65,740–65,760

2. Today's 3 Major Levels

LevelMeaningToday's Judgment
65,280–65,50015m pivot at 65,300 and 1H pivot/15m rebound high at 65,500If it retraces and stalls, go with ③. If 65,500 is recovered by 1H close, confirm rebound for ②.
64,880–65,080Night low 64,920 and SQ pin at 65,000If it stops falling and reverses, use ② First Monitoring Zone
64,860Break price below the night low 64,920If clearly broken on 15m, move to ④ Break-following Short

3. Today's 4 Scenarios

MTF Overlap Rank: S = overlap of 4H, 1H, 15m; A = overlap of 1H, 15m; B = 15m alone. Use option alignment as a rank modifier. Entries are not made merely upon zone reach; confirm 15m wave reversal or acceleration on 2m/5m before entering.

① Breakout-following Long

  • Monitoring: 65,740–65,760. Check whether the 1H low of 65,740, which has closed below, can be reclaimed.
  • Fulfillment: Clear breakout above 65,760 on 15m close and hold. Also must have recovered 65,500 in A-rank zone.
  • Entry: Do not chase immediately after breakout; instead re-enter on a test with 2m/5m or after a retrace followed by another ascent.
  • Exit/Switch: If 65,590 is broken on 15m close and retest fails, exit. If 64,860 is broken, ① is finished. If you cannot clear 65,760 and revert below 65,500, prioritize ③ again.
  • Target: 66,090 → 66,500 → 66,780. Only upon closing above 66,780 and continuing can you confirm a renewed 4H wave rise.
  • Option: 65,750–65,125 is an amplifying zone where breaks tend to extend; however, near 66,500–66,750 there is heavy positive GEX, so expect slowdowns. Near 66,500, prioritize taking profits/hedge.

② Downside Rebound Long

  • Monitoring: First monitoring zone 64,880–65,080; Second monitoring zone 64,560–64,760.
  • Fulfillment: In each monitoring zone, 15m down move slows, forming a low and a halt to the decline. Since 15m 20MA is downward, avoid early entries below it.
  • Entry: 15m turns into an uptrend, or 2m/5m turn up → pullback → rise again; enter long.
  • Exit/Switch: For longs from First Monitoring Zone, exit if 64,860 clearly breaks. If this level clearly breaks, do not chase buys in Second Monitoring Zone; switch to ④. If using Second Monitoring Zone as a rebound candidate, exit if 64,540 breaks. Full exit at 64,280.
  • Target: 65,300 → 65,500 → 65,740. If 65,760 breaks and holds, carry the extension to ①.
  • Option: 65,000 has the thickest Call OI 4,737 and Put OI 4,409; with SQ remaining 3 trading days, it is favorable for pull. First monitoring zone has favorable wind; 64,500 and 64,000 have large negative GEX, so breaking may accelerate downward.

◎ ③ Sell on Rallies (Short)

  • Monitoring: First monitoring zone 65,280–65,480; Second monitoring zone 65,500–65,700.
  • Fulfillment: Prices return to zones and rise slows; confirm a form of rebound high or 15m downtrend reversal. 65,500 in the second monitoring zone aligns with 1H pivot and 15m rebound high (A-rank).
  • Entry: 15m turns to a downtrend, or 2m/5m turn down → shake out → confirm further fall to short.
  • Exit/Switch: Shorts from First Monitoring Zone exit if 65,530 is breached. If overall ③ does not complete, watch Second Monitoring Zone 65,500–65,700 for renewed short setup. Exit if 65,790 is breached from Second Monitoring Zone. If 65,760 is clearly broken and held, close ③ and switch to ①. If 64,860 is clearly broken, do not chase ③ and switch to ④. Full exit at 65,990.
  • Target: 64,920 → 64,660 → 64,300. If 64,860 is closed below, extend to 64,660 or lower.
  • Option: Both monitoring zones lie within 65,750–65,125 amplifying band, so there is a tendency to accelerate downward. On the other hand, T1’s 64,920 sits just below 65,000 SQ pin and may resist declines; near 64,920 partial profit-taking is advised.

④ Breakout-following Short

  • Monitoring: 64,860. Early signal is a close below 64,990 on 15m.
  • Fulfillment: Clear break below 64,860 on 15m and move below that level. Must clearly break SQ pin at 65,000; wicks-only breaks do not count.
  • Entry: Do not chase immediately after breakout; look for an additional drop after a 2m/5m pullback or a rise followed by another drop to short.
  • Exit/Switch: If price recovers to 65,010 on a 15m close, exit. If 65,310 is breached, ④ is complete. If 64,860 does not hold and 65,000 recovers, reassess the rebound long for ②.
  • Target: 64,600 → 64,300 → 63,710. If 63,710 closes below, extend to 63,090 and 62,100.
  • Option: Negative gamma returns; the lower levels, 64,500, 64,000, and 63,000 have larger negative GEX. Put Skew has shifted to +4.41pt, signaling increased downward hedging demand. Be cautious of acceleration downward after breaking 64,860.

4. MTF State List

LegStructureWaveStrikeMA State
4HRangeDownward66,78020EMA, 20SMA, 120EMA, 200EMA above; price pushed below MA band
1HRangeDownward65,50020EMA, 80EMA downward; 480EMA above
15mDownDown65,30020EMA, 80EMA, 320EMA downward; price above

Consistency:All waves of 4H, 1H, and 15m are aligned downward, and MA are above price. Directionally, returns-on-rebound dominate, but the current price of 65,040 sits just above the thick 65,000 OI. With SQ only 3 trading days away, near 65,000 expect more pin action and ranges rather than a clear direction.

5. Consistency with Option Map

  • 65,000Call OI 4,737 and Put OI 4,409, both near max for near term. Put Wall is STABLE. Potential SQ pin.
  • 65,703Zero Gamma. Current price 65,040 sits on the lower side; currently in Negative Gamma region.
  • 66,500 / 66,750Net GEX +12.05 / +10.04. Strong slowdown zone above. 66,500 is building a Call Wall.
  • 64,500Net GEX −3.73. If breached, downward acceleration tends to intensify.
  • 64,000Net GEX −6.54. Further down, targets 63,000 −8.51, 62,000 −7.70.
  • IV / SkewATM average IV rises from 28.6% to 32.9%; Put Skew flips to +4.41pt. Demand for downside hedging increases.

Option data is not the primary driver for entry direction; use it to gauge acceleration/deceleration and reaction candidates for the MTF scenarios.

Wave Count Perspective

MainOn the daily chart, the retrace after a breakout is viewed as the second wave of a downtrend. The 4H chart also broke its pullback low, so the expectation was for a third wave to form without exceeding 66,560. If the third wave intensifies, it would break 63,710 and target 63,090, 62,100, and 60,000 on the downside.

AlternativeIf 66,560 closes above and holds, consider a trend change; after a break of 67,180, look for a pullback to confirm resistance-turned-support near 66,560, guiding toward 69,300.

ProgressDuring 9/8, price rose to 66,780 on a close above 66,560, and an alternative count briefly formed. Yet before confirming a resistance-support reversal, it fell sharply to 64,920, and the primary count resumed. To adopt the alternative again, 66,780 must be recovered on a close, followed by a pullback that allows another rise.


6. 4H Details

4H is in a range and downward wave. On 9/8, price rose to 66,780 above 66,560 but then plunged to 64,920 and could not sustain the breakout. Consequently, the rebound high is not formed, and the conversion price moved up to 66,780. Although the breakout itself is valid, it was negated before resistance-support reversal confirmed, so higher timeframes reset.

20EMA around 65,650; 20SMA near 65,900 and turning flat. 120EMA around 65,650; 200EMA around 65,950. Price is pushed below the MA band and sits slightly below the middle of the range 63,710–66,780.

7. 1H Details

1H is in a range and downward move. After dropping 1,860 to 64,920 from 66,780, it retraced to 65,610 and closed at 65,040. Trend shows a shift from up to range; the pullback low of 65,740 has been closed below. Conversion price is 65,500.

20EMA around 65,450 and 80EMA around 65,600 downward. 480EMA around 65,850 above price. If 65,500 is recovered by 1H close, the wave will move higher; if not, and 64,920 is broken, further downside tests are likely.

8. 15m Details

15m is a downward trend and decline. After a rebound from 64,920 to 65,610, price faced resistance near 65,500 and closed at 65,040. Rebound highs moved down from 65,610 to 65,500; the support at 65,150 was also broken on close. Conversion price is 65,300.

20EMA around 65,250; 80EMA and 320EMA around 65,500, all downward with price above. Upper rebound band is 65,280–65,480. If price breaks 64,920, the break below 64,860 becomes the next reference.

9. Other Important Prices

PriceMeaning
66,7804H conversion price and 1H rebound high. Intraday high for 9/8
66,750 / 66,500Net GEX +10.04 / +12.05. Thick slowdown zone above
66,090First target
65,760–65,740Break reference. Recovery band of the old 1H pullback low
65,703Zero Gamma
65,500–65,700Second monitoring zone. 65,500 is 1H conversion price and 15m rebound high
65,750–65,125Area where price action tends to amplify
65,280–65,480First monitoring zone. Includes 15m conversion price 65,300
65,150–65,11015m support and the night low of 9/8
65,040Current price and night close
65,000Call/Put OI thickest near-term; probable SQ pin candidate. Put Wall STABLE
64,920Night low and first target
64,880–65,080Second monitoring zone
64,860Break reference
64,560–64,760Second monitoring zone. Former 1H pullback low around 64,660
64,600First target
64,500Net GEX −3.73
64,300Lower targets for ③・④
64,000Net GEX −6.54
63,7104H pullback low. If broken, third wave becomes substantial
63,090 / 62,100 / 60,000Lower targets for main count

10. Current Action

  • 65,280–65,480: First monitoring zone. If it rebounds and stalls and turns downward, take the down move.
  • 65,500–65,700: First monitoring zone exit; second monitoring zone in the first zone after exit. See if another downward reversal occurs at 65,500 A-rank zone.
  • 65,740–65,760: If it clearly breaks and holds above, exit ③ and pursue ① breakout-long.
  • 64,880–65,080: First monitoring zone ②. If 65,000 SQ pin area shows a rebound structure, consider downside rebound long.
  • 64,560–64,760: Second rebound candidate in deep pullbacks; however, if 64,860 is clearly broken, prioritize ④.
  • 64,920–64,860: Watch for another break below 64,920. If 64,860 is clearly broken on 15m close, end ② and move to ④.

In this pre-report, fixed entry prices or RR are not set; use the 15m wave reversals formed in the monitoring zones and the acceleration patterns in 2m/5m to decide actual entries. If you exit in the first monitoring zone but the scenario continues, revisit the second monitoring zone for renewed entry criteria and re-entry decisions.

※ On 9/8 the 4H rebound high of 66,560 was breached on a close but could not be sustained after a drop to 66,780. The higher-timeframe structure resets, and the 4H conversion price moved up to 66,780.

※ Gamma environment reverted from POSITIVE to NEGATIVE. ATM average IV rose to 32.9% and Put Skew to +4.41pt, signaling stronger downward hedging demand. September SQ is on 9/11 with 3 trading days left.

※ This report is for information purposes and does not constitute trading advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.