★ Common trait of people who go bankrupt even with a 60% win rate [Free 30-second assessment]
Even with a 60% win rate, your funds can still decrease.
The cause is not the “win rate,” but the moment losses cluster together.
I made a free tool that lets you check that in 30 seconds.
Continuing by feel makes it impossible to know when funds will run out.
▼ Free profit and loss calculator tool (free, no registration, results in 30 seconds)
The numbers you enter are not transmitted anywhere.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/85729
■ You can’t tell profitability by win rate alone
The win rate at which you become profitable varies with the payout.
With a 1.80x payout you’re profitable at 55.6% or higher, with 1.90x payout at 52.6% or higher, and with 2.00x payout at 50.0% or higher.
Even the same 55% win rate can be profitable with 1.90x payout and unprofitable with 1.80x payout.
Most people continue without knowing their own payout breakeven point.
If you know the breakeven point, it’s easier to decide whether to keep going.
■ What really matters is the “mid-course drop”
Even with a 60% win rate, a run of 5–7 losses can occur in 100 tries.
If you’re risking 10,000 yen per entry, that could temporarily wipe out 50,000–70,000 yen.
Even if you end up net positive, if your funds run out along the way, that’s the end.
What you should look at is not the “win rate,” but the “number of attempts × expected value” and the mid-course drop.
■ This is recommended for people like this
People who know their win rate but whose funds fluctuate unpredictably.
People who decide entry amounts by intuition.
People who choose a broker without comparing payouts.
■ You can run 1,000 trials at once
This tool was created by a developer who publishes all entries in daily live streams.
The developer himself uses this approach to judge daily entries.
Press the randomization button to swap only the sequence of wins and losses and graph the movement of funds.
It can calculate up to 1,000 trials at once and show the rate of insolvency all at once.
(Demo video here)
▼ You can check with your own numbers in 30 seconds (free, no registration)
Just enter funds, entry amount, payout, number of entries, and number of wins.
The numbers you enter are not transmitted anywhere.
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/85729
■ How to use it in 3 steps
Using it is simple.
1. Enter your most recent month’s “number of attempts” and “wins” as they are.
2. Press Randomize 10 times to see the width of the “largest drop.”
3. Lower your entry amount to a level you can endure for that amount.
With this alone, you can tell whether you’re “thinking you’re winning” or actually profitable.
■ How to obtain
Download the ZIP from the Gogojump product page (free), unzip, and open the HTML inside.
Works as-is on PC (Windows/Mac) and Android.
For iPhone, please open using the included “How to use.txt” steps.
No special installation required.
※ The calculation results are indicative. Actual profit and loss depend on the broker’s payout, execution, and rule interpretations.
※ This tool is a calculation tool and does not guarantee trading instructions or profits. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.
Please tell us your impressions after using it in the article’s comments.
▼ Once more from here (free, no registration, results in 30 seconds)
The numbers you enter are not transmitted anywhere.