【9/8 Tue】Dollar-Yen Morning Fixed Observation｜The Star is 08:30 Monthly Labor Survey Cash earnings total (YoY)★★
This is the morning record for September 8 (Tue). Today's main item is 08:30 Monthly Labor Survey: Total Cash Earnings (YoY)★★. The USD/JPY current price is 154.16 yen, with an expected range seen at 153.51 to 155.73 yen.
The answer comparison for the previous business day was a miss. Below are the indicators, charts, and scenarios in order.
First 60 seconds | Today's Economic Indicators
Today's Economic Indicators (9/8 8:30 to next 8:29 JST)
| Time (JST) | Country | Indicator | Importance | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 |  | Monthly Labor Statistics Total Cash Earnings (YoY) | ★★ | 3.8% | 3.4% |
| 08:50 | | Bank Lending (YoY) | ★ | 5.5% | 5.4% |
| 08:50 | | Current Account Balance / Current Account | ★ | 2.48T | 1.40T |
| 08:50 | | GDP Deflator 2nd Preliminary (YoY) | ★ | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| 08:50 | | GDP 2nd Preliminary (Quarterly) | ★ | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 14:00 | | Economy Watchers' Survey Current Situation DI | ★ | 46.3 | 45.7 |
| 15:00 |  | Germany Trade Balance | ★ | 16.0B | 15.4B |
| 15:45 | | France Trade Balance | ★ | -6.0B | -5.8B |
| 19:00 |  | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | ★ | 99.4 | 99.8 |
| 22:15 |  | BOE Monetary Policy Report Parliament Testimony | ★★ | — | — |
| Next: 04:00 | | Consumer Credit Balance | ★ | 11.9B | 14.2B |
Today This Is What Moves
Today's focus is the 08:30 Monthly Labor Survey: Total Cash Earnings (YoY). With an expected 3.8% and a previous 3.4%, the market seems to have priced in a partial acceleration in wage growth. If the forecast is exceeded, the yen tends to strengthen; if it misses, the yen tends to weaken. Since wage growth is often linked to the Bank of Japan's policy judgments, this indicator also tends to affect USD/JPY. Because this is a ★★ level indicator, the actual price range may be relatively limited.
USD/JPY Current Position
Current Price154.16 (Previous close 154.34 / Day-on-day -1.89)
Expected Range153.51 (Pivot S1) to 155.73 (Pivot R1)
Main ScenarioRange-bound between 153.51 and 155.73. Direction will await Japanese indicators after 08:30.
AlternateBreak above 155.73 to test 157.12 / Break below 153.51 to 152.67
Daily Chart: Environmental Recognition
The daily chart is in a consolidation with MA lines interwoven; three moving averages are tangled with no clear direction. The current price 154.16 is below the MA20 at 158.73. As resistance, lines are drawn at 157.66 and 160.03. The 20-day low is 154.06 (9/7), just after a test of this level. For a rebound from 158.97 to 154.06, the retracement levels would be around 155.93 (0.382) and 156.51 (0.5). On the downside, there are no mechanically detected support candidates yet.
4-Hour Chart: Key Lines
The 4-hour chart shows a downtrend with MA200 > MA75 > MA20, and the current price is below MA20 at 156.16. Resistance is at 156.71, with 158.60 further above. On the downside, there are no mechanically detected support candidates. ATR14 is 67 pips, so even to rebound there remains distance to the low- to mid-156s.
Connecting Indicators and Charts
Today, at 08:30, the Monthly Labor Statistics' Total Cash Earnings (YoY) is due, and at 22:15 the BOE Monetary Policy Report Parliament Testimony is scheduled. The Pivot P is at 154.89 and the current price is below it. Range boundaries are Pivot S1 at 153.51 and Pivot R1 at 155.73, and if R1 is breached, 157.12 becomes observable; if S1 is broken, the direction toward 152.67 is likely to be considered.
In the Video | USD/JPY Morning Fixed Observation
Answer for the Previous Business Day
It was a miss. The closing price 154.34 closed below the expected range of 155.43–156.89. A 222-pip bearish candle appeared where the range had been, so the range expectation was straightforwardly violated.
Yesterday's USD/JPY closed at 154.34, down 1.89 yen from the previous day, with a range of 222 pips. Compared to the average range of 117 pips, it was considerably larger, so we should watch whether there is any remaining movement the next day.
Verification Data
The average range for USD/JPY during Tokyo hours (9–15) over the past 156 instances is 58 pips, and the daily average range is 117 pips. If you consider Tokyo time accounting for about half of the day, chasing only the initial movement after indicators may require some caution.
Today matches the pattern of updating the 20-day low. The bullish day-after pattern after updating the 20-day low (over the past 10 years, 232 cases) has a bullish day rate of 57%, with an average move of +5 pips, and the direction is roughly even, so it seems safest to treat it as balanced.
Today's Question
Which will be tested first, 155.73 or 153.51?
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Materials published by FX Method Research Institute on GogoJungle
※ The verification uses USD/JPY hourly data with past data from January 2016 to March 2026. It does not indicate future performance.
Indicator data: customized edits based on Forex Factory / Tradays. Price: Dukascopy (Bid) (as of 2026-09-08 09:00)
※ This is the personal view of Tsutsumi. Please make investment decisions on your own.