[September 8 Edition・Morning Edition] Launch FX Major 4 Stocks Daily Market Analysis & Trade Scenarios
?️ 【September 8, 2026 Morning Edition】ロンチFX Major 4 Stocks Daily Market Analysis & Trade Scenarios
undefined undefinedGood morning, this is Ronchi FX. Here is the morning edition for Tuesday, September 8.
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Yesterday was a historic day. The yen briefly strengthened to the 154 yen level against the dollar, reaching roughly a six-month high since late February. In addition to expectations for a faster pace of Bank of Japan rate hikes, Finance Minister Takenaka's remark that the exchange rate would remain alert, and easing tensions in the Middle East leading to a reversal of “safe-haven dollar buying,” clearly broke through the “155 yen wall” that had resisted two yen-buying interventions. A strategist at BofA Securities also noted that we may be entering a phase where excessive yen depreciation is corrected.
On the other hand, the stock market moved in the opposite direction. The Nikkei Stock Average rose by 1,378.90 points (2.12%) to 66,399.84, supported by semiconductor-related buying driven by the surge in U.S. hyperscale stocks, which offset the strong yen.
Today's main focus is the 8:50 release ofGDP for the 2Q revised value (second estimate)The first estimate showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of +0.3% (annualized +1.1%), below the consensus forecast of +2.2% (annualized). If revised up, it could support expectations for further BOJ rate hikes; if revised down, it could increase market uncertainty.
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※ The analyses in this article are intended for information purposes and are not investment advice. Please make your own final investment decisions.
? This Week's Theme
There are two main candidates for this week's highlights. The CPI and PPI on 9/11 (the last major indicator before the BOJ meeting on the 18th next week, which could sway expectations for rate cuts or hikes by the Fed) and this week's GDP revision value released today, ahead of the BOJ meeting, along with various economic indicators. We want to determine in the first half of this week whether yesterday’s rapid yen appreciation signals a trend reversal or just a temporary adjustment.
? Recap of the previous scenario (Morning Edition, 9/7)
In the 9/7 morning edition, we suggested a scenario of “buying on dips if the yen holds around around 155.30 (S1).” The result, however, easily breached S1 and yen strengthened to the 154 level. After breaking below S1, one should have shifted to a bearish stance earlier, and the wider-than-expected range is a clear point of regret. Meanwhile, the scenario for the Nikkei 225 to “buy on continued rise above 65,300” worked as the index reached 66,668.