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カタナ
09/07/2026 17:32
Release： 09/07/2026 17:32
Update： 09/07/2026 17:32
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Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s up to the present, I have remained involved in the financial markets, experiencing various aspects of equity, bond, foreign exchange, and derivative markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company, where I worked in market-making for domestic and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for client-facing activities, gaining practical experience with interest rate, currency, and credit risks. Later, at a foreign securities company, I engaged in marketing to hedge funds and the formation of new funds, contributing to investment strategies on the institutional investor side, product design, and risk management. After going independent, I have continued systematic trading in which discretionary judgment alone is not relied upon, with the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena. Currently, I combine Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility to pursue reproducible trading judgments. Drawing on many years of market experience and practical futures trading perspectives, I focus on market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market outlooks. Markets are always changing, but I believe the important thing is not to “guess the forecast” but to preemptively organize, in advance, “at which points and under what conditions will I act, and how.”
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NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory | Watching for pullback from 66,360–66,560 and break below 65,840 [9/8]

Date: September 8, 2026 06:02 JST / Night Position

Current value: 66,070 yen

1. Today's Conclusion — Read in 30 seconds

Basic stance: prioritize selling near the upper end of the range. However, if it recovers to 66,170, buying the dip is also valid.
Night of 9/7 rose to 66,490 then fell 610 to 65,880, ending at 66,070. On the 4H chart it shifted from downtrend to range, on the 1H chart it shifted to up, while the 15m narrowed. The current price of 66,070 lies between the 1H turning price of 66,170 and the 15m turning price of 66,050. It has reversed toward POSITIVE GAMMA, making it prone to rebound rather than a clean breakout. If it stalls between 66,360–66,560, prioritize scenario ③; even if it rises to 66,600–66,780, if it cannot be sustained, consider re-entering short. If it clearly breaks above 66,710 and sustains it, move to scenario ①; if it clearly breaks below 65,840, switch to scenario ④. If it forms a rebound structure at the downside around 65,880–66,080 or 65,620–65,820, then consider scenario ②.

Primary③ Range upper limit reversal short：First watch zone 66,360–66,560, Second watch zone 66,600–66,780
Counter② 1H dip buy：First watch zone 65,880–66,080, Second watch zone 65,620–65,820
Upside switch① Breakout follow-long：Clear breakout and maintenance above 66,680–66,710
Downside switch④ Breakout follow-short：Break below 65,840

2. Today's 3 Important Levels

LevelMeaningToday’s Decision
66,360–66,56015m pullback high at 66,490 and 4H range upper bound at 66,560If it stalls, target is the first watch zone
66,050–66,17015m turning price and 1H turning price overlap in A-rank zoneIf it recovers to 66,180, confirm long; if it breaks below 66,050, expect short-term down move
65,840Break price below the night low of 65,880 on 9/7If clearly broken, move to scenario ④

3. Today's 4 Scenarios

MTF Overlap Rank：S = 4H・1H・15m overlap, A = 1H・15m overlap, B = 15m alone. Option alignment determines rank adjustments. Do not enter solely on reaching watch zones; wait for 15m wave turn and re-acceleration in 2m/5m to confirm entry.

① Breakout follow (long)

  • Watch：66,680–66,710.
  • 条件成立：Clear breakout above 66,710 on a 15m close and sustain it.
  • Entry：Enter long after the breakout and a test rebound confirmed on 2m–5m charts.
  • Exit/Switch：If 66,500 is broken on a 15m close and test fails, exit. If 66,040 is broken, scenario ① ends. If 66,710 breakout cannot be sustained and price falls below 66,560, shift to prioritizing scenario ③.
  • Targets：67,180 → 67,910 → 69,300.
  • Option：66,750 Net GEX +12.89; 66,500–66,750 a strong deceleration zone. POSITIVE GAMMA faces headwinds; after breakout, consider extending higher once 66,750 is confirmed.

② 1H dip buy (long)

  • Watch：First watch zone 65,880–66,080, Second watch zone 65,620–65,820.
  • 成立：In each zone, 15m declines slow, forming a low and price stops falling.
  • Entry：15m upturn, or 2m/5m upturn → pullback →再上昇.
  • Exit/Switch：First watch zone breaks clearly below 65,860 and exit. However, scenario ② continues; monitor re-entry setups in the second watch zone. If 65,580 breaks, exit second watch zone. If price clearly breaks below 65,840 and stays below, end scenario ② and move to ④. Full exit at 65,380.
  • Targets：66,490 → 66,680 → 67,180. In 66,490–66,560, partial profit-taking preferred.
  • Option：66,000 (−4.80) and 65,750 (−5.21) tend to accelerate downside if broken. In second watch zone, 65,500–65,250 is an amplification band.

◎ ③ Range upper limit reversal short

  • Watch：First watch zone 66,360–66,560, Second watch zone 66,600–66,780.
  • 成立：In each zone, upward momentum slows, a pullback high or 15m downtrend turn confirms. The upper bound of first zone, 66,560, is the 4H range upper limit.
  • Entry：15m downtrend turn, or 2m/5m turn to decline → a pullback → renewed decline.
  • Exit/Switch：First watch zone crosses 66,610 to exit temporarily. However, scenario ③ continues; monitor for sell setup again in second watch zone. If price moves above 66,830 to exit, otherwise if 66,710 clearly breaks and maintains, scenario ③ ends and move to ①. If 65,840 clearly breaks, don't chase; move to ④. Full exit at 67,010.
  • Targets：66,050 → 65,880 → 65,610. From there, continue into scenario ④.
  • Option：Overlap with strong positive gamma band between 66,500–66,750; in POSITIVE GAMMA environment, pullbacks tend to slow. If price is drawn toward around 66,500 before the SQ, beware of sideways consolidation.

④ Breakout follow-short

  • Watch：65,840. Preceding sign is a 15m close below 66,050.
  • 成立：15m clearly breaks below 65,840 and stays below.
  • Entry：Do not chase immediately after breakout; confirm further downside from a pullback on 2m–5m.
  • Exit/Switch：If 65,990 is recovered on a 15m close, exit. If price moves above 66,190, scenario ④ ends. If 65,840 does not hold and returns to 66,050, reassess scenario ②. Full exit at 67,010.
  • Targets：65,610 → 65,380 → 64,840.
  • Option：Strong negative GEX in 66,000–65,750; amplification bands also exist at 65,500–65,250. However overall environment can revert due to POSITIVE GAMMA; watch for pullback toward the 66,500 area before SQ.

4. MTF State List

LegStructureWaveTurning PriceMA State
4HRangeRising65,61020EMA rising, 20SMA, 120EMA, 200EMA neutral
1HRisingFalling66,17020EMA flat, 80EMA/480EMA rising while price falls
15mRangeRising66,05020EMA flat, 80EMA/320EMA rising

Consistency:The trend is turning upward, but the 4H, 1H, and 15m waves are not aligned in a single converging pattern. The current price 66,070 lies between the 1H turning price 66,170 and the 15m turning price 66,050. Up ranges are 66,360–66,560; down range, 65,840 is important.

5. Alignment with the Option Map

  • 66,750：Net GEX +12.89, near the current price. Combined with 66,500 (+9.96), it forms the strongest deceleration zone.
  • 67,000：Call Wall. Rises from 65,000 upward BUILDING.
  • 66,000：Net GEX −4.80.
  • 65,750：Net GEX −5.21, strongest downward amplification.
  • 65,697：Zero Gamma. Current value on the upside is the side likely to slow down.
  • 62,000：Put Wall. Building from 60,000 upward.

Option information is not the primary driver of direction, but is used as acceleration/deceleration/reaction candidates for MTF scenarios.

Wave Count Perspective

MajorOn daily chart, a rebound after a pullback is viewed as an upward wave (second wave) within a downtrend. The 4H chart also broke below the intraday low on 9/2, and unless the rebound high of 66,560 is surpassed, expect the third down wave. Downside targets: 63,090, 62,100, 60,000.

AlternativeIf a close above 66,560 is established, that is a trend reversal. After breaking 67,180, if a retest near 66,560 confirms support-turned-resistance, then target 69,300.

ProgressThe current price 66,070 shows a 82.8% retracement from the down move 66,560 → 63,710. The high of 66,680 on 9/7 is above the full retracement, but the 4H close has not recovered 66,560, so the branch is not confirmed.


6. 4H Details

The 4H is range-bound with an up move. It rose to 66,680 intraday on 9/7 but could not recover the pullback high of 66,560 by 4H close. Breaks via wicks only are not considered; keep the 66,560 upper limit. Downside: if it closes below 65,610, the wave turns down.

The 20EMA slopes upward near 65,700, and the 20SMA is near 65,850 with price below. 120EMA around 65,750 and 200EMA around 66,000; prices have returned above major MAs.

7. 1H Details

The 1H shows an uptrend with a down wave. After climbing to 66,680, it pulled back to 65,880 and closed at 66,070. The turning price is 66,170, 100 yen above the current price. If price recovers to 66,170 by the 1H close, the wave will return to the upside; if it fails to recover and breaks 65,880, the pullback deepens.

The 20EMA is around 66,120 and flat, with the 80EMA around 65,850 and the 480EMA around 65,600 rising as price falls.

8. 15m Details

The 15m is range-bound with an up move. It fell 610 from 66,490 to 65,880, then retraced to 66,170, closing at 66,070. Rebound high 66,490, turning price 66,050. Highs and lows are sliding with shrinking range.

The 20EMA around 66,050 is flat, the 80EMA around 66,000 and the 320EMA around 65,500 are rising; price is above major MAs. A break below 66,050 returns to a short-term downmove; the next turning points are 65,880 down and 66,360–66,490 up.

9. Additional Important Prices

PriceMeaning
69,300Alternative count final target
67,180Upper rebound high / ①T1
67,010③ Full exit. 67,000 Call Wall BUILDING
66,780–66,600③ Second watch zone
66,750Net GEX +12.89
66,710① Break breakout reference
66,5604H pullback high / range upper
66,49015m pullback high
66,360–66,560③ First watch zone
66,170–66,050Overlap of 1H and 15m turning prices in A-rank zone
66,070Current price
66,000Net GEX −4.80
65,880–66,080② First watch zone
65,840④ Breakout reference
65,750Net GEX −5.21
65,697Zero Gamma
65,620–65,820② Second watch zone
65,6104H turning price
65,500–65,250Amplification band
64,6601H lower price
63,7104H lower price
63,090 / 62,100 / 60,000Main downside count targets

10. Current Action Points

  • 66,360–66,560：③ First watch zone. If it stalls and turns downward, go short.
  • 66,600–66,780：Second watch zone after exiting the first watch zone.
  • 66,680–66,710：If it clearly breaks above and sustains, scenario ③ ends and move to ①.
  • 65,880–66,080：First watch zone. If 66,180 is recovered on a 1H close, becomes the main position.
  • 65,620–65,820：Second watch zone after exiting the first.
  • 66,050–65,840：If breaks below 66,050 in 15m, wave down; if breaks below 65,840, exit scenario ② and move to ④.

In the pre-report, fixed entry prices or RR are not set; instead, use the 15m wave turns and re-acceleration patterns formed within watch zones to decide entries in real time. If you exit in the first watch zone but the overall scenario remains viable, re-check the criteria in the second watch zone to re-enter.

※ The intraday high of 66,680 on 9/7 rose above the 4H pullback high of 66,560, but the 4H close did not recover. Wicks-only breaks are not considered valid; keep the 4H range upper limit at 66,560.

※ Gamma environment has flipped from NEGATIVE GAMMA to POSITIVE GAMMA. Price movement tends to dampen and range, so be wary of runs that don’t complete after a breakout. September SQ is on 9/11 with 4 trading days left.

※ This report is for information purposes and does not constitute trading advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.