The most important thing in binary that no one calculates is "how much it decreases in the middle" 【Free profit and loss calculator tool】
One question for people who continue binary options: "Last month, how many entries did you place, how many did you win, and how much were you up by?" While many can answer the win rate, surprisingly few can instantly state the actual amount. Today I’ll write in numbers the true nature of profit and loss that you don’t notice if you only look at the win rate.
■ A 60% win rate is not a winning win rate
Profitable win rate (breakeven) is determined by the payout.
• Payout 1.80x → 55.6%
• Payout 1.90x → 52.6%
• Payout 2.00x → 50.0%
Even with the same win rate of 55%, 1.90x is profitable while 1.80x is unprofitable.
If you calculate with 10,000 yen per trade and 100 trades:
• 1.90x, 55 wins, 45 losses → +45,000 yen
• 1.80x, 55 wins, 45 losses → -10,000 yen
Just a 0.1 difference in payout can separate the same results into profit and loss.
Because payouts change by service provider and time of day, you must recalculate “whether you become profitable with your own win rate” every time.
■ Even with the same number of wins, the rate at which your funds decline is completely different
Another aspect that most people don’t look at is “how much money declines in the middle.” Even with 60 wins out of 100, the intermediate funds differ greatly depending on whether wins are scattered or losses cluster.
With a 60% win rate, 5–7 consecutive losses can occur within 100 trials (a probabilistic estimate). If you trade 10,000 yen per trade, that’s 50,000–70,000 yen, and with Martingale that amount can be several times larger temporarily.
Even if you end up with a net positive, if your funds cannot withstand the mid-plot downswings, you reach the end there. Look at it not by “win rate” but by “number of trades × expected value per trade” and by “mid-plot declines.” In my own practice of placing entries every day, this perspective changed.
■ It’s not possible by hand, so I made a tool
• Just enter five items: funds, entry amount, payout, number of entries, number of wins
• It instantly shows profit/loss, breakeven, number of wins needed for profitability, and final funds
• Each time you press a button, it randomly shuffles the sequence of wins and losses to graph the movement of funds
• Displays the maximum losing streak, maximum drawdown, and whether a collapse occurs due to insufficient funds
• Calculates up to 1,000 trials at once and shows the rate of collapse
Free, no registration, no installation required. The input numbers are not sent anywhere.
Distributed for free on GogoprintGo (GogoJungle).
■ Quick reference table for breakeven (by payout)
Payout / Win rate to be profitable / Wins required in 100 trades
• 1.70x / 58.8% / 59 wins
• 1.75x / 57.1% / 58 wins
• 1.80x / 55.6% / 56 wins
• 1.85x / 54.1% / 55 wins
• 1.90x / 52.6% / 53 wins
• 1.95x / 51.3% / 52 wins
• 2.00x / 50.0% / 51 wins
If you know your average payout, you can determine profitability by whether your number of wins exceeds this table’s required wins.
■ Profit and loss for 10,000 yen per trade × 100 trades (win rate × payout)
Win rate / 1.80x / 1.90x / 2.00x
• 50% / -100,000 yen / -50,000 yen / ±0 yen
• 55% / -10,000 yen / +45,000 yen / +100,000 yen
• 60% / +80,000 yen / +140,000 yen / +200,000 yen
• 65% / +170,000 yen / +235,000 yen / +300,000 yen
■ Where to obtain the tool
Gogojang product page (free)
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/85729
Unzip the ZIP and simply double-click the HTML inside.
Works on PC (Windows/Mac) and Android browsers.
On iPhone, the buttons do not work in the file preview, so open it using the steps in the included “How to use.txt.”
■ Tips for use
1. First, enter your most recent month’s “number of trades” and “wins” as they are. Your sense of numbers will change.
2. Change the payout in 0.05 increments to see where the profit turns to loss.
3. Press random generation more than 10 times. The width of the “largest drawdown” is your required capital.
4. If a collapse occurs even once, reduce the entry amount and recalculate.
■ Free version vs. full version
The free version is a lightweight edition focused on single-case verification.
The full version (Martingale verification, pyramid verification, overlay graph) is planned for paid release on Gogojungle (price not yet determined).
Note: Calculations are indicative. Actual profit and loss depend on the broker’s payout, execution, and judging rules.
Note: This tool is a calculation tool and does not guarantee trading instructions or profits. Please make your own investment decisions responsibly.