[September 7 Analysis Report] Will USD/JPY continue to decline? Focus on EUR/USD around 1.1637

Hello, this is Leo.

This time,summary of FX market analysis as of September 7, 2026will be provided.

What I am particularly watching in the current market is,

these two things.

Looking at the recent momentum, from the previously continuing USD strength and yen depreciation trend,

it seems the balance of power is gradually changing.EUR/USD seems likely to test higher for now

First, EUR/USD.

In the short term,

I am watching for a potential near-term upside from the current level.

as the immediate high zone.

Since it has returned to test the immediate high, in the short term

the key is whether it can decisively break above around 1.1637

This will be a key point.

Breaking around 1.1637 would make the 4-hour chart interesting

What matters for EUR/USD is not simply that the short-term has risen.

If it clearly breaks above this recent high,

will emerge.

If the rise in the short-term timeframes translates into the 4-hour chart momentum,

it will not be a case of “just a temporary uptick,”

but

potentially developing into another larger uptrend.

Dollar strength across the board should be watched higher

Aside from EUR/USD,

and other dollar crosses may show upside momentum in the near future.

Of course,

this does not mean buying every currency pair at the same time.

so it will be prudent to look for pullbacks and higher highs in each pair.

USD/JPY could lead to a significant downside

And another important point is USD/JPY.

Regarding this,

USD/JPY has decisively broken key recent lows.

This is very significant.

Until now,

the idea of “buy the dip on declines in USD/JPY” has worked in this market.

However,

once it breaks a key low,

emerges.

Will this recent break of the low lead to a sizable daily downtrend?

What I am watching is not simply that USD/JPY went down.

What matters is that it broke a crucial low that had supported the rally

you see.

A trend is up as long as higher highs and higher lows are being formed.

Once that crucial low is broken,

Therefore, currently,

I want to focus on selling USD/JPY on rebounds

as the priority.

Be mindful of a yen-buying trend

For USD/JPY,

in addition to technicals, I want to keep an eye on fundamentals as well.If Bank of Japan policy or rate expectations shift,

there is a possibility.

Recently, cross-yen pairs have become harder to buy, which aligns with this trend.

This week also watch US indicators

This week, key US indicators will also be released.

In particular, indicators that could determine the dollar direction could, depending on the results,

therefore,

instead of deciding direction solely on technicals, I will also closely monitor price action around the data releases.

My current outlook

However, don’t chase; wait for pullbacks

Even when the direction is clear, you cannot enter anywhere.

After a sharp drop in USD/JPY, if you simply sell at the low, you may be caught in a strong pullback.

For EUR/USD, around 1.1637 is a recent high and may cause a pause.

Deciding the direction and choosing the entry point are two separate things.

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