[9/7 Month] USD/JPY Morning Fixed Observation | No indicators for today★★★
This is the morning record for Monday, September 7. Today is a trough day with no★★★ indicators. The current USD/JPY is 156.22 yen, and the expected range is seen as 155.43 to 156.89 yen.
The answer for the previous trading day was ○. Below, I will place the indicators, charts, and scenarios in order.
First 60 seconds | Today’s economic indicators
Today’s economic indicators (September 7, 8:30 — next day 8:29 JST)
| Time (JST) | Country | Indicator | Importance | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 |  | Leading Economic Index | ★ | 117.9% | 116.4% |
| 15:00 |  | Germany Industrial Production (MoM) | ★ | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 15:00 |  | Lloyds HPI m/m | ★ | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 17:30 | | Sentix Investor Confidence Index | ★ | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 18:00 | | Employment—Confirmed (QoQ) | ★ | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 18:00 | | GDP Confirmed (QoQ) | ★ | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Next 08:01 | | BRC Retail Sales (YoY) | ★ | 1.2% | 1.0% |
Today’s movers
There are no★★★-level releases today, and indicators show a lull. Moreover, since the US market is closed, liquidity may be thinner and prices could move more easily. The main event is the ECB policy rate decision at 21:15 on 9/10 (Thu), with expectations at 2.65% vs. the previous 2.40%, and the statement and 21:45 press conference are likely to form a continuous set of material. In today’s pre-event cautious mood, I want to watch for remarks from key figures and headlines that may cause fluctuations.
USD/JPY current position
Current Value156.22 (Previous business day close 156.23 / Day-on-day +0.43)
Expected Range155.43 (Pivot S1) ~ 156.89 (Pivot R1)
Base caseConsolidation between 155.43 and 156.89. Direction depends on price action during overseas hours.
AlternateBreak above 156.89 to test 157.56 / break below 155.43 to 154.63
Daily timeframe environment
The daily chart is in a range with MA crossings, showing no clear direction with three moving averages tangled. The current 156.22 is below the MA20 at 158.98. Resistance is at 157.66 and 160.03; support is at 155.13. The 20-day high is 160.39 (9/2) and the low is 155.29 (9/4), with the recent low just updated on Friday. The retracements for the drop from 158.97 to 155.29 show 0.382 at 156.70 and 0.618 at 157.56, both near the 157.66 resistance band.
Key lines on the 4-hour chart
The 4-hour chart displays a descending sequence with MA200 > MA75 > MA20, and the current price is below MA20 at 157.70. The upper and lower lines are drawn mechanically at 158.60 and 155.26. The 0.382 retracement from 160.39 to 155.29 sits at 157.24, aligning with the MA20 in front. ATR was 83 pips.
Connecting indicators and charts
Today, there are no scheduled indicators on the fact sheet. On such days, responses tend to appear when the price reaches the range edges. The pivot is around P (156.09) with R1 at 156.89 and S1 at 155.43. Since the current price is close to P, I expect the price to move away to either side by the overseas session. It’s challenging to judge by discretion, though ^^;
Also in video | Morning fixed-point observation of USD/JPY
Answer for the previous business day
Friday I anticipated a range of 154.41 to 157.66 as the main scenario. In reality, the high was 156.76, the low was 155.29, and the close was 156.23, staying inside the expected range, so the verdict is ○. It was a day that ended without testing either edge.
Friday’s 21:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 162K versus 55K expected, and the following 15 minutes moved up by 73.8 pips, while the 60-minute range moved down by 140.4 pips. The daily close was at 156.23 with a bullish candle, and the range was 146 pips. Following the initial move would have retraced, which can be tough to follow by discretion ^^;
Verification data
On Monday Tokyo time (9–15), the average USD/JPY range over 156 sessions is 62 pips, and the daily average range is 118 pips. Mondays are usually quiet, but over a day there is actually quite a bit of movement ^^
Friday was a day that updated Friday’s 20-day low. The 20-day low breakout the next day yields a bullish rate of 57%, with average movement of +5 pips, suggesting the direction is not heavily biased one way or the other.
Today’s question
Which do you think will be tested first, R1 at 156.89 or S1 at 155.43?
If you’d like, tell me in a like or comment.
The four RCIs shown in this article can be produced with a free distribution indicator.Free 4-line RCI indicator (included with MT4/MT5)
What FX Method Research Institute publishes on GogoJungle
※ The verification uses USD/JPY hourly data from January 2016 to March 2026. It does not indicate future performance.
Indicator data: edited in-house based on Forex Factory / Tradays; Price: Twelve Data (as of 2026-09-07 09:00)
※ This is the personal view of Tsutsumi. Please make your own investment decisions.