[Quick Reference] With a 60% win rate, you can win 62,000 yen in 100 plays. The break-even point changes based on the payout multiplier
Hello, I am Nikotama.
When I look at introductions to sign tools, there are numbers showing win rates everywhere. When I recorded signals for my own indicator 220 times in August, the first number I saw was a win rate of 62.7%.
After that, I wondered, “how much will this actually increase,” and hit the calculator, only to realize it increases less than I expected. Binary options have a payout multiplier that is less than 2, so just looking at the win rate can distort the perception.
This time I will summarize that calculation.
■ A win rate that neither increases nor decreases is the reciprocal of the payout
If you bet 10,000 yen per round and hit, you get a payout of 1.77 times. The amount left is a 7,700 yen gain, and if you miss, a 10,000 yen loss.
From reversing this, the exact win rate that neither increases nor decreases is 1 ÷ 1.77,56.5%This line, as long as you stay below it, will decrease reliably the more times you play.
In terms of how to read the table: for example, with a payout of 1.77 and a win rate of 60%, you would be up 62,000 yen over 100 rounds. Moving 100 rounds, i.e., 1,000,000 yen worth, results in a 62,000 yen gain.
A 60% win rate is already quite good for a sign tool. Even so, it only yields about this much.
Another thing the table shows is that the difference in payout has a bigger effect than you might think. With the same 60% win rate, 1.77x payout yields 62,000 yen, while 1.85x yields 110,000 yen. Increasing the win rate by 1% is hard, but you can choose higher-payout trades on the same day.