【Quick Reference】Payout 1.88x, win rate 65%: with 10,000 yen × 100 times, total 222,000 yen. Break-even point is 53.2%.
Hello, this is Nikotama.
When you look at the introduction of the signing tool, the numbers of win rate keep appearing. But there is not much written about “how much you would gain if you bet 100 times with that win rate.” Binary options have payout multipliers below 2, so just looking at the win rate can distort your sense.
I will summarize the calculations.
■ The turning point is the reciprocal of the payout. If the payout is 1.88x, the win rate is 53.2%
Bet 10,000 yen once; if you win, you get 1.88 times. The amount left on hand is a positive 8,800 yen, and if you lose, it is a minus 10,000 yen. Calculating backward, a win rate that neither increases nor decreases is 1 ÷ 1.88,53.2%.
As for how to read the table, with a payout of 1.88x and a win rate65%, over 100 trades you would havea gain of 222,000 yen. With a 62% win rate it would be 165,000 yen, and with 60% it would be 128,000 yen.
In my own records, from May 13 to September 19, out of 669 trades, taking only Thursday signals, there were 89 wins out of 132 trials,67.4%. For GBPUSD hourly chart after 3:00 PM, 32 wins out of 47 trials,68.1%. It sits a little higher than the far right of the table (65% win rate).
Another takeaway from the table is that the difference in payout matters. Even with the same win rate of 65%, 1.77x would yield 150,000 yen, 1.88x would yield 222,000 yen, and 1.90x would yield 235,000 yen. It’s very hard to increase win rate by 1%, but you can choose higher payout trades within the same day.
■ If something doesn’t fit, tell us and we will fix it
Now for the promotional part. Paradise does not just lay out finished products and finish the deal.If something doesn’t suit you after using it, we will hear your requests and fix it.I think that is the biggest difference.
In the past few months, we have been adding things like the following.
・Easy settings: It used to be hard to select each condition, so we reduced it to choose one from six combinations
・CSV of signal history: The emitted signals and outcomes are automatically saved line by line. All the numbers in this article come from this.
・Continuous-signal suppression: Stop the signals during a specified number of bars to avoid a band-walk
・Display in Japan time: Show MT4 server time and Japan time side by side
・CSV of signal history: The emitted signals and outcomes are automatically saved line by line. All the numbers in this article come from this.
・Continuous-signal suppression: Stop the signals during a specified number of bars to avoid a band-walk
・Display in Japan time: Show MT4 server time and Japan time side by side
All of these are things I added because I felt they were lacking when I used them myself. I will do the same thing for requests as well.
There are currently 38判定条件 (judgment conditions) loaded, and it runs with ON/OFF combinations of them. If something is missing, I will add it. Adding conditions, controlling exclusion times, how alerts sound, the position and color of arrows and text, items to leave in the CSV. For adjustments of this scale,We respond to purchasers’ requests without additional fees. Please consult separately if you need me to rebuild something about that scale.
Please send your requests via GogoJungle messages. It’s fine to write something like “I want this condition to trigger a signal only when these two conditions overlap.” I will check feasibility and respond.
→ This is the tool that outputs the numbers in this article:Paradise (MT4 indicator, 38 judgment conditions, 5,000 yen)