Episode 16: The more you protect, the weaker ACE becomes
I created a channel
The price touched
I examined the past
And ACE finally
BUY
SELL
do nothing
started thinking about
Once you get this far
what to think next was naturally decided
how to reduce losses
Not how to win, but how not to lose first
When creating an EA
I inevitably think
I want to make it safer
I want to reduce bigger losses
I want to avoid more dangerous situations
Then
If it seems dangerous, just stop
If you’ve held it too long, cut it
If the drawdown grows, run away
If it breaks in the opposite direction, retreat
The more I thought
the defense ideas kept increasing
Add defense, you become stronger
At first, I seriously believed that
one defense is not enough
two defenses are not enough
three defenses are not enough
four defenses
If you can stop many dangerous moments
your performance should improve by that amount
It felt very natural
In reality
When looking at charts with big losses
afterward
“I could have stopped here”
“I could have cut here”
“I shouldn’t have entered here”
There are countless places you can find
Therefore
But the numbers didn’t improve
However
Each time I added a defense
it didn’t turn out as I expected
The big losses decreased
But
profits also decreased
I reduced the number of positions
But
even the positions that later rose sharply disappeared
I forced them to exit early
But
I ended up cutting positions that later would have returned to profitability
Although I was protecting them
the final results weakened
This happened many times
The danger of trying to erase this loss
Backtests show
there are trades that stand out
days of drawdown
large negatives
aren’t closed for a long time
a position that feels uncomfortable to watch
when you see trades like this
you
want to erase them
and
then
you create rules to stop those trades
and indeed
the loss disappears
but
the same rule
elsewhere
eliminates positions that could bring future large profits
Holding longer isn’t necessarily bad
In ACE
there are long-term positions
At first
longer-held positions
I thought they were dangerous
Time passes
there is drawdown
there is swap
so
you should cut after a certain time
But when I tested it
it wasn’t that simple
Among long-held positions
there were some that later rebound greatly
supporting ACE’s overall profit
in other words
holding longer doesn’t mean a bad position
wasn’t the case
Cut because of drawdown
This was the same
if the drawdown exceeds a threshold
deem it dangerous and cut
this also seems reasonable
but in ACE
after a big drawdown, it can take weeks to recover
looking only at the middle
looks like a failure
but if you look at the end
a big profit
backtests show
that future can be seen
but in real trading
that future isn’t visible
that’s why
easy midway exit rules are dangerous
we learned
If it breaks the other way, is it hopeless?
If using a channel
and it breaks in the opposite direction
that position is wrong
I even considered that
So
I tried a mechanism to retreat on a reverse break
This also
helped with some large losses
but the same problem occurred again
Even if it briefly breaks the opposite direction
it can come back
and become profitable
I would end up cutting those positions
Defense focused only on losses
Around this time
I finally understood
When building defenses
I was
only looking at “losing positions”
how can I erase these losses
how can I avoid this damage
But what we really should look at
is what you lose by adding that defense
and what you lose
was
One defense does two jobs
When you add defense logic
it stops bad positions
but at the same time
it stops good positions
The problem is
which is more numerous
which amount is larger
For example
even if you prevent a loss of 100,000 yen
if that costs you 200,000 yen in profits
the EA becomes weaker
When evaluating defense
you must consider profits you saved as well
you must consider the profits you lost
And I started removing defenses
From here
the development direction changed slightly
Instead of adding defenses
questioning whether it is truly necessary
questioning whether it is truly necessary
a mechanism to cut with time
a mechanism to cut due to drawdown
a mechanism to cut on a reverse break
Even if you’ve already built something
if long-term backtests show it reduces profit
remove it
even if it looks strong
if the numbers get worse
don’t use it
Rather than “adding something,” do “nothing”
This was quite surprising
In EA development,
adding new features makes it seem like it’s evolving
but in ACE
the opposite happened
create a new defense
test it
and
remove it
this cycle
what remained was not “many defenses”
only the defenses that were truly necessary
was
Don’t touch ACE that is winning
From this point
in ACE development
one approach grew stronger
don’t change ACE when it is winning
only when it is wrong
should be kept as small as possible
if you change the way it wins
ACE itself becomes a different thing
this remains a major criterion for improving ACE
Not the strongest defense, but the minimal necessary defense
As Ver.1 neared completion
what we aimed for changed
at first
an EA that minimizes losses as much as possible
but in the end
an EA that avoids fatal damage while not killing large profit positions
became
there is no need to protect everything
no need to erase all losses
you lose sometimes
but
you survive
and
when the market ACE truly excels in comes
you will be able to run solidly
ACE Ver1 is complete
ACE began by creating channels
finding touches
studying the past
considering reversals and breakouts
beginning to enter
having TP and SL
using trailing
and
increasing defenses
and then reducing again
what remained in the end was
ACE Gold EA Ver.1 ‐GENESIS‑
which is
not what was initially imagined
“an EA that stops anything”
was not
instead, the opposite
do not touch more than necessary
that is
the answer reached through long testing
Ver.1 is complete
But
even though it is complete
that does not mean it will never change
Once real trading starts
things not visible in backtests may appear
in a long market, new questions will arise
And now
ACE is
moving to the next stage
Next time
“Re-sculpting the already finished ACE”
Without breaking Ver.1
without touching the winning parts
only looking for the wrong parts
From here
the development of Ver.2begins.