A Channel Has Emerged

Top-view Channel

Bottom-view Channel

Finally ACE has a “eye”

But

Having drawn the channel is not enough
It's not EA yet

Price approaches the line

And

touches

From here, the real problem began

Touching the line does not necessarily mean you should buy/sell

At first, I thought simply

If it touches the upper line, SELL

If it touches the lower line, BUY

This would be easy to understand

However, when looking at real charts

It wasn’t that simple

Touch the line

Sometimes it rebounds cleanly

But

Sometimes it breaks through outright

Sometimes it pulls back a little after breaking

Sometimes it goes back and forth across the line many times

In other words

Simply having the fact that it “touched” does not decide anything

Rebound or Break

For example, price reaches the upper channel

If it just bounces off

You'd want to consider SELL

But if it breaks that line

and starts moving upward

Then BUY becomes possible

The same line

The same touch

Yet

The meaning afterward can be totally opposite

ACE has

Rebound

and

Break

become separated concepts

“The current shape” wasn’t enough

Another question arose here

By just looking at the chart’s shape

Can one judge that this line seems to rebound

Or that this line will break

Of course, humans

Sometimes feel like

“this looks strong”

“this seems ready to break”

But for an EA

“just a feeling”

cannot be written

What is needed

numbers

were needed

What happened in the past at similar spots

So ACE gave the other role

Not just looking at the current line

Study the past

Study the past

In situations similar to this channel

When price touched in the past

What happened afterward

Did it rebound

Did it break

Which occurred more often

How many times did it happen

How many times did it succeed

Little by little

ACE

Changed from a “tool to draw lines”

to a tool to study the past

One success is not meaningful

Initially, this was dangerous

If there was a similar shape in the past and

that one instance succeeded

The success rate would be 100%

If you only look at numbers, it seems perfect

But

Such 100% is meaningless

One win, zero losses

100 wins, zero losses

Same 100%, but completely different

Therefore

The number of similar cases

as the base count became necessary

Inside ACE

Not only the success rate but

the sample size

became a consideration

From “touch” to “candidates”

From this time, the meaning of touch also changed

At first

Touch = Entry

was close

But as it was developed

it was no longer like that

Touched the channel

↓

First becomes a candidate

↓

Look at past similar situations

↓

Is the rebound side advantageous

Is the break side advantageous

↓

Look at current conditions as well

↓

Finally becomes an entry candidate

In other words

Touch is not the entry point, but a sign to start evaluation

became

And, candidates are gradually filtered out

Now in ACE

There are many judgments

But not everything was there from the start

First

Channel

And touch

From there

“This case is dangerous”

“It’s better not to enter”

“Too many in the same direction”

“Now the market condition is different”

With each such mistake found, conditions were added

ACE is not to enter a lot, but

to increase reasons not to enter

The first ACE was quite straightforward

Touched the channel

Past performance wasn’t bad

Then enter

That was how it started

But when run for a long period

That alone wasn’t enough

Markets are not always the same

When momentum is strong

In a range

During sudden changes

When it continues in one direction

Even if past forms were good

they can be dangerous in the current environment

Such scenarios appear

From “winning conditions” to “losing conditions”

As development continues

The mindset began to change a bit

How can we win more

Rather

Look at when ACE is likely to be wrong

became the focus

When winning

Just let it win

The problem is

when it is wrong

Can we detect that mistake in advance

Can we prevent it

This thinking led to

filters and defense logic later

ACE, which used to be just a channel, began to judge

By now

ACE was no longer merely looking at charts

From above

From below

Touching the line

Looking at the past

Considering rebound or break

If conditions align

BUY

SELL

Do nothing

Choose these three

ACE for the first time

began to be a “judging EA”

In that moment

But

If it could enter, the next thing awaited

A bigger problem

Entering is easier than exiting

Where to take profits

Where to cut losses

How far to hold a running position

The more you protect, the better the results really are

Next time, Episode 16

“I thought protecting made me strong”

TP

SL

Trailing

And more and more defenses accumulate

However

ACE encounters a problem

protecting too much makes you weaker

and so on.