Autumn market is finally starting
U.S. Employment Situation (August)
| Item | Result | Market Expectation | Previous | Revised Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls | +162,000 | +56,000 | −23,000 | +21,000 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Average Hourly Earnings m/m | +0.3% | +0.3% | +0.1% | +0.2% |
| Average Hourly Earnings YoY | +3.1% | +3.0% | +3.2% | +3.2% |
June payrolls were revised up from +20,000 to +31,000. Combined with July, upward revisions totaled +55,000.
Last month’s decline was revised to an increase, and this month shows a substantial rise. It’s honestly hard to know what we’re being shown. The goalposts move every month, so it’s very difficult to infer much from employment data. Factually, the unemployment rate at 4.1% did not worsen and remained flat. Additionally, the labor force participation rate rose slightly from 61.4% to 61.6%, and the unemployment rate remained flat. From July to August, employment also increased in the household survey.
The 12-month average up to July is an increase of 31,000 per month,and the last three months average is an increase of 71,000 per monthwhen smoothed, indicating solid but not overly strong performance. On a month-to-month basis it can be missed, but employment is solid and, as Warsh says, near full employment.