On the daily chart, three “mountains” have formed; if it falls below 155 yen, the pattern will be completed.
There are "three peaks" formed on the daily chart.
If it falls below 155 yen, that shape will be completed.
Last week, a drop of about 5 yen from 160 yen significantly changed the chart pattern,
and this week will be a decisive moment to see whether 155 yen can be held.
This is a single-point showdown.
What is happening now
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▼ Three peaks have formed
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When you draw and view the daily chart, three peaks line up in a row.
Left peak: June high 162.62 yen
Middle peak: July high 163.97 yen ← highest
Right peak: 160 yen (late Aug – early Sep)
○ Middle peak
This shape, where the middle peak is the highest of the three, has a name and is called a Head and Shoulders pattern.
The three peaks are called the head (center) and two shoulders.
One leg of support has peeled away
In last week's sudden drop, the 200-day moving average, which had been supporting the price (around 158 yen), dipped below it.
→ The situation where one support has peeled away
The remaining major support is only at 155 yen.
But it has not broken yet
What matters is that nothing has been decided yet.
・As long as 155 yen is held, the daily uptrend continues
・On a larger weekly view, even if it drops to 152 yen,
the uptrend itself does not break
The low on 9/4 was 155.29 yen. It has barely held just before the neckline.
It has held firm near the neckline.
The meaning of Head and Shoulders and the Neckline
Head and Shoulders refers to a pattern where
three peaks line up, with the middle peak being the highest.
In English, it is called "Head and Shoulders." It is a representation of left shoulder, head, and right shoulder.
→ A classic "ceiling" signal indicating that the uptrend has exhausted its strength
Why is it a ceiling signal?
Traders who bought at the first peak take profits → price falls
It rises further on the second peak, but then falls again
The third peak does not reach the second peak, meaning buying power is weakening
★ The realization that "it can't go higher anymore" becomes visible after three tries
The key is the "Neckline" (neckline)
The line connecting the troughs between peaks is called the Neckline.
This time it is 155 yen.
★ A break below this marks the completion of the Head and Shoulders ★
This is the most important point.
Seeing the pattern alone does not decide anything yet.
Even after three peaks appear, selling just because you think "it will go down" is
too early. In reality, it is possible to break upward after the third peak as well.
→ The judgment comes when the neckline is breached
For now, it is still "unfinished"
September 4 low: 155.29 yen
Neckline: 155 yen
The difference is only 0.29 yen. It is barely holding on.
Therefore this week will be a week to watch whether it breaks or holds.