[9/6] Next Week's Strategy Meeting — The Star Is 9/11 (Fri) 21:30 U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) ★★★
The close for 8/31 (Mon)–9/4 (Fri) is 156.23 (weekly chart shows a down week, down 3.78 yen vs. previous week). The star of next week is 9/11 (Fri) 21:30 U.S. CPI (month-over-month) (including core CPI) ★★★.
The most important price indicator directly impacting the Fed’s rate cut/increase decision. I will summarize the indicators, scenarios, and Monday gap forecasts for the next week.
First 60 seconds | Next week strategy meeting
Key indicators for next week (9/7 Mon – 9/11 Fri)
| Date | Time (JST) | Country | Indicator | Importance | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/8 (Tue) | 08:30 |  | Monthly Nonfarm Payrolls: Total Cash Wages YoY | ★★ | 3.9% | 3.4% |
| 9/10 (Thu) | 02:00 |  | Nagel German Federal Reserve President Speech | ★★ | — | — |
| 9/10 (Thu) | 21:15 | | ECB Policy Interest Rate | ★★★ | 2.65% | 2.40% |
| 9/10 (Thu) | 21:15 | | ECB Statement | ★★★ | — | — |
| 9/10 (Thu) | 21:30 |  | Producer Price Index (PPI) (MoM) (including core PPI) | ★★★ | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| 9/10 (Thu) | 21:30 | | Initial Jobless Claims | ★★ | 205K | 206K |
| 9/10 (Thu) | 21:45 | | ECB President Press Conference | ★★★ | — | — |
| 9/11 (Fri) | 15:00 |  | Monthly GDP (MoM) | ★★★ | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 9/11 (Fri) | 21:30 | | CPI (MoM) (including core CPI) | ★★★ | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 9/11 (Fri) | 23:00 | | University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index — Final | ★★ | 51.0 | 51.0 |
| 9/11 (Fri) | 23:00 | | University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectation — Final | ★★ | — | 4.3% |
All 56 items including the ★1 are listed in the weekly calendar image below.
Weekly Scenario
Assumed Range155.22 (13-week low) ~ 156.87 (weekly MA52)
Main ScenarioAn ascending sequence with weekly MA13 > MA26 > MA52. The favorable path is to pick up a dip and test 156.87.
AlternativeIf it breaks 155.22, the weekly trend could turn downward and the decline may extend.
According to the rules, next week’s range is 155.22–156.87. I set the upper bound at 156.87 (weekly MA52) and the lower bound at the 13-week low, and the weekly ATR (231 pips) split in half. The main expectation is MA13 > MA26 > MA52, testing 156.87 after a pullback. If 155.22 breaks, the weekly trend could shift downward and the decline may extend. I’ll reveal the results on Saturday ^^
Monday Gap Forecast
Friday’s NY close is 156.23. In the past three years, Mondays open with a gap of 10 pips or more with 53% probability, and 78% of those gaps are filled within the day, and 93% within the week. There are no major events scheduled for this weekend. This is a retrospective illustration, so next week may not behave the same.
Verification Data
Measured indicators that could play the lead role next week. The dollar-yen average range in the first hour after the U.S. CPI release (across past 35 occurrences) is 87 pips, and the direction of the initial move persisted after one hour in 97% of cases. The numbers highlight the initial move’s straightforwardness.
This Week’s Vote
Will the NY close on next Friday be higher, flat, or lower than this week's 156.23? The result will be announced Saturday around noon ^^ We also accept votes on X.
Up (+50 pips or more) / Almost flat (±50 pips) / Down (more than −50 pips)
In this article, I’d be happy if you leave your thoughts with a Like or a comment.
I will continue to record next week with the same yardstick. Tools used for the verification are summarized here.Tsumi @ FX Method Verification Channel
There are also materials for those who want to build the verification environment themselves.EA Development Environment Complete Setup Course
Materials published by FX Method Institute on GogoJungle
※ Verification uses USD/JPY hourly data from January 2016 to March 2026. It does not indicate future performance.
Indicator data: edited from Forex Factory / Tradays; Price: Twelve Data
※ This is Tsumi’s personal view. Please make your own investment decisions.