[Trajectory to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260906]
【Trajectory to a Dream_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Recognition & Memo_20260906】
September 6, Sunday.
Hello.
Today is a Sunday that feels cool due to rain.
I am repeating tasks inside the house.
In the evening, even if I have to carry an umbrella
I recognize that I should go for a walk,
but I’m not sure whether I will actually go out. (lol)
Well,
Mr. Bassent has spoken as if he became the Governor of the Bank of Japan, and his statements are influencing things.
Thinking technically,
USD/JPY seems likely to trend downward.
We would like the yen to continue strengthening,
but first, it would be necessary to break below 155 yen.
Now, let’s verify.
This is the number of bars at the closing of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 21st bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 11th bar / 9
Weekly volatility: 74 pips
HPC (High-Probability Cycle) 1st cycle, 53rd bar / 43 or
Daily: 2nd cycle, 3rd bar / 2
4HC (4th High Cycle) 5th or 1st cycle, 16th bar / 9
We interpret this.
Since the weekly chart has switched,
upside price action is in view, but
weekly volatility is small,
making this pair unsuitable for trading.
Inflation in the US and a rate hike
as indicated by Chair Powell
after the FOMC,
and what about the midterm elections?
So it seems we’re waiting on events.
【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 25th bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 32nd bar / 26 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 5th bar / 3
Weekly: 4th cycle, 18th bar / 12
Weekly volatility: 509 pips
HPC 2nd or Daily 1st cycle, 25th bar / 23
4HC 2nd cycle, 72nd bar / 55 or
4HC 3rd cycle, 6th bar
We interpret this.
155.03 looks like a notable horizontal level.
If price breaks below this, downside trend will continue
and likely form a large bearish candle.
Until then, it may be choppy.
Bassent intends to push down long-term yields,
which may have amounted to verbal intervention on USD/JPY.
Ultimately, it seems to be a Bassent vs. Takashi (Mita) scenario.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 21st bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 11th bar / 9
Weekly volatility: 90 pips
HPC 1st cycle, 53rd bar / 43
4HC 5th or 1st cycle, 15th bar / 12
We interpret this.
This is a currency pair with small weekly volatility.
Even though the first of the High-Probability Cycle (HPC) is present,
we are approaching a closing timing, so
dollar strength is in view.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 26th bar / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 30th bar / 10LT
Weekly volatility: 555 pips
Daily: 1st or 3rd cycle, 25th bar / 15
4HC 3rd cycle, 3rd bar / 1
Perhaps, has the 4HC switched?
I think,
for a while, the view is upside.
EUR/USD rise is limited,
and USD/JPY fell sharply,
so last week's weekly volatility was large.
This week, prices may rise in the first half,
but in the second half, look for downside.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 26th bar / 24
Weekly: 4th cycle, 29th bar / 22
Weekly volatility: 708 pips
Daily: 4th cycle, 25th bar / 17
4HC 3rd cycle, 3rd bar / 1
We interpret this.
Last week was a dramatic move.
Weekly volatility exceeding 700 pips for the first time in a while.
From the start of 4HC2, the break lower could indicate
a continuation of the downside view.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 18th bar / 15
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 29th bar / 28
Weekly volatility: 302 pips
Daily: 4th cycle, 25th bar / 20
4HC 3rd cycle, 8th bar / 4
We interpret this.
In the latter half of the week, mostly looking downside.
A break from the start of 4HC2 might occur,
and while 4HC3 may rise at the節点,
the latter half of the week could settle with a downside view.
I think so.
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20260906_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/AsVpXRWFwlQ
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DXY 99.159 +0.16%
US10Y 4.784 +0.25%
DJI 53419 dollars -272 dollars
US500 -0.39%
WTI 91.784 dollars
BRN 96.28 dollars
Nikkei 225 65020 yen +806 yen
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