MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Sep.7 2026
1. Review
Last week, the Nikkei Stock Average closed at 65,020, down 1,385 points from the previous week. The week's high was 65,525 on Tuesday the 1st. The week's low was 63,772 on Thursday the 3rd. The closing price for the week was below the weekly downside support line, indicating a bearish tone. Furthermore, this closing price was two weeks in a row below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP), and last week it fell significantly. Therefore, the overall trend has been downgraded from “neutral” to a “downtrend.”
2. Cycles
As noted previously, in “Forecast 2026” the long-term market cycle timing for the Nikkei Stock Average has been changed from 17 years to 19 years. However, the starting point remains October 28, 2008, at 6,994. Therefore, where this 19-year cycle has bottomed, or whether it has not yet bottomed, will be the focus in 2026. That said, there is no change to the view that the current market is built on a four-year cycle, and the future development of the long-term market cycle will still be influenced by the recent PC (typically 12–20 weeks). Also, currently, from the perspective of the long-term cycle, very important lows are August 5, 2024 at 31,156 and April 7, 2025 at 30,792. These two lows, sandwiched around the November 28, 2024 low of 37,801, formed PC bottoms of 16 weeks and 19 weeks. The question remains how the PC will be viewed thereafter.
To continue, please refer to the PDF file.
* MMA Report is prepared from Mr. Meriman's unique perspective for information purposes and is not intended to provide buy/sell recommendations.
* We ask that final investment decisions be made at your own risk.
* Copying or distributing our reports without permission constitutes a breach of contract. If such breach is discovered, legal action may be taken, and distribution may be terminated even within the contract period. We appreciate your understanding and cooperation.