I also analyzed the XAU/USD 4-hour and monthly charts as of the weekend of 9/5

Gold-Dollar (XAU/USD) Support-resistance flips on the 4H chart using moving averages and the tug-of-war between long profit-taking and add-on buying on the monthly chart lookedquite interesting, so for reference I summarized thesupport-resistance flip conditions across five moving averages (large/medium/small) andpullback conditions triggered by profit-taking andthe chaining of large/medium/small wave undulations.

●On the 4H chart Iexplain a lot of intricate details, so if you want to grasp thebroader flow,you may want to skip the 4H andjump ahead to the latter Monthly chart section.

●Looking at the XAU/USD (4H) chart, you can identifythree active C points, namelysell-the-rally at the red ② 50SMA that has turned downward,buy-the-dip at the blue ① 20SMA that has turned upward,buy-the-dip at the black ④ 200SMA that has turned upward—three such setups.

● Selling the rally at the green ③ 100SMA and buying the dip at the yellow ⑤ 400SMA are not active yet, but look poised and waiting.

● Optional reading for reference. (For those who like the numbers)

● Plotting eachBC/AC Fibonacci retracement on the chart,the red ② 50SMA bearish ABC is FR 55.1%,the blue ① 20SMA bullish ABC is FR 63.6%,the black ④ 200SMA bullish ABC is FR 54.9%.

●For completed ABCDs in the past, I display ratios in the orderFE (CD/AB) / FR (BC/AB) = (CD/BC).

(Ratio-wise,the leftmost FE 100.5% / FR 38.1% = 263.8% looks nicely N-shaped.)

●After a bullish or bearish ABCD completes, profit-taking at D tends to bring price back to C, and Ishow those pullbacks on the right.

●Triangles mark a 23.6% retrace of CD, andif price breaks this line, flipping resistance-to-support or support-to-resistance, the odds increase of a full return to C. Whenall the yellow fill disappears it’s [Complete], confirming aD→C profit-taking return.

●Showing all moving averages at once can be hard to read, so I’lldisplay them individually in sequence.

● Here wefocus only on the blue 20SMA andignore the other lines like red 50SMA and green 100SMA to assess price action.

Near the top, on the leftprice rides above the rising blue 20SMA and advances, then frompoint A, the furthest upside stretch away from the 20SMA,it breaks below the 20SMA with an overshoot down to point B, thenreturns to around the now-downsloping 20SMA at point C, where a sell-the-rally (Sell(1S)) short entry appears,breaks below B, and, with the blue 20SMA capping candles, falls toward the black 200SMA area—this becomes point D.

After that,a candle breaks above the resistance of the 23.6% retrace of bearish CD ≒ the top edge of the blue triangle on the right, flipping it to support, whichis a guideline for short profit-taking, sosome profit-taking likely occurred.

From D price overshoots above the blue 20SMA and ralliesback from point B to the now-rising blue 20SMA, andwhen candles touch the blue 20SMA from above, it looks like buy-the-dip (Buy(1B)), short profit-taking, or flip-to-long behavior.

(In actual entries, some tradersenter around or below touches from above on the blue 20SMA andif the close breaks below, exit breakeven when price returns up to the 20SMA from underneath; othersgo long when a corresponding 5SMA confirms a support/resistance flip for the 20SMA—there are various styles.)

●Ignoring other moving averages andlooking only at the blue ① 20SMA,after a long entry near the now-rising blue 20SMA, price could break above point B and climb toward the vicinity of the bearish entry C (bottom of the light-blue box).

●Focusing only on the red ② 50SMA:

From point A price overshoots above the red 50SMA and rallies topoint B, then pulls back to around the now-rising red 50SMA for a buy-the-dip (Buy(2B)) long entry

When the 23.6% retrace of bullish CD ≒ the bottom edge of the filled red triangle on the far right is broken to the downside and flips to resistance at candle level,long profits are taken

Price returns D→C, margin funds return to traders, and traders can now deploy new positions either way for a move equal to the height of the pink box.On the far right, the word [Complete] indicates the D→C return has finished.

(This point also becomes the B of the bearish ABCD.)

From point B, a sell-the-rally (Sell(4S)) short entry at the now-downsloping red 50SMA,aiming for a trade that targets D breaking below B.

(It seemsprice hasn’t touched the red 50SMA yet.)

Focusing solely on the red ② 50SMAand viewing the chart,if all traders using the red ② 50SMA, whose margin has returned to them, sell the rally (short) here, an AB=CD N-shaped move wouldn’t be surprising.

● Looking at green ③ 100SMA, black ④ 200SMA, and yellow ⑤ 400SMA

Black ④ 200SMA tradersshort the rally (Sell(4S)) around the now-downsloping black 200SMA

Green ③ 100SMA tradersshort the rally (Sell(3S)) around the now-downsloping green 100SMA

After breaking above the bearish trendlines of black ④ and green ③,adds to shorts from around the black 200SMA, green 100SMA, and each bearish CD 23.6% retrace line were attempted, butfailed to make new lows, thentook short profits as rising trends formed sequentially in green ③ and black ④.

Creating an uptrend line of the same color above a broken downtrend line marks a bearish→bullish trend reversal, andboth green ③ and black ④ have completed bearish→bullish reversals.

After overshooting above the black ④ 200SMA and rallying frompoint B, a buy-the-dip (Buy(4B)) long entry came at point C on the return to the now-rising black 200SMA,likely aiming to break above B toward D and toward the bearish ABCD’s C.

●①–⑤ on the right show where each wave is trying to head next,and when you lock the close there, ①–⑤ are displayed.The lines are the 23.6% retraces of AB, BC, and CD so you cangrasp reversal conditions.

●Key point:All of blue ① to yellow ⑤ show “23.6% Broken”,meaning the close has broken the 23.6% retrace in the pullback direction,indicating each wave has crossed its 23.6% and is holding the opposite-direction zone to proceed toward its respective ①–⑤ target.

Blue ①:From the C near the blue 20SMA,keep above the light-blue 23.6% retrace andvia CD priceaims to close near the upper-right blue ①

Red ②: From the C near the red 50SMA,keep below the pink 23.6% retrace line andvia CD priceaims to close near the lower-right red ②

(Ideally, blue ① undulates in an N and sets a new high for red ②)

Green ③: From point B near the black 200SMA,keep above the green 23.6% retrace line andvia BC priceaims to close near the upper-right green ③

(Ideally,red ② undulates in an N and sets a new high for green ③)

Black ④: From point C near the black 200SMA,keep above the black 23.6% retrace line and aim to close near the upper-right black ④

(Ideally,green ③ undulates in an N and sets a new high for black ④)

Yellow ⑤: From the yellow ⑤ high at the top (point B),keep below the orange 23.6% retrace line andaim to close near the lower-right yellow ⑤

(Ideally,black ④ undulates in an N and sets a new low for yellow ⑤)

●If each proceeds in N-shapes without breaking above its 23.6% retrace resistance, we end up like this.No one completes an ABCD?

●The blue ① 20SMA wave corresponds to the daily 5SMA wave, soto build blue CD it would tap the daily 5SMA with a bearish candle then make a lower-wick bullish daily candle for one day, whilethe red ② 50SMA wave corresponds to the daily 10SMA wave, soto build red CD it would tap the daily 10SMA with a bullish candle then make an upper-wick bearish daily candle—that’s the image.

●From a higher-level view,for upside continuation it’s ideal to form the yellow ⑤ low near a yellow 400SMA that has turned upward, andbreak above the upper orange 23.6% retrace resistance, flip it to support, and clear the yellow ⑤ point B, sowhich side breaks first—upper orange 23.6% line or lower yellow 400SMA—looks critical.

● Leaving the 4H behind, on theMonthly chart toview the bigger picture,highs are labeled BDDD, andfor traders using blue ① 20SMA, red ② 50SMA, green ③ 100SMA, they likely bought dips at C on MAs that had already turned up, are in unrealized profit, and are deciding when to take long profits, whilefor black ④ 200SMA traders, they’re eyeing buy-the-dip longs if price returns toward a black 200SMA that has turned up.

●It’s a highly important juncture whereif everyone takes profits, price could return to the area on the right marked “it returns here”—around the overlap of the long entry C points for blue ①, red ②, green ③ and the black 200SMA—raising the risk of a drop.

●Thinking about long profit-taking from the blue ① 20SMA perspective:after a buy-the-dip (long) near the lower blue 20SMA at C,the candle bodies stayed above the corresponding short-term 5SMA (light blue) and rose, thenwhen the 5SMA (light blue) and blue ① CD 23.6% support = the bottom of the blue triangle on the right were broken on a closing basis and flipped to resistance, that wasa first profit-taking timing, likely prompting many to take profits.

● After that,price found support near the blue ① 20SMA, thenthe close broke back above the corresponding short-term 5SMA (light blue), and nowthe September candle is testing a lower-wick touch to the 5SMA to see if it holds as support or flips to resistance,some traders may add to longs here or after candle close if supported, butto make new highs, the close needs to break and hold above the 23.6% support.

●From the red ② 50SMA perspective on long profit-taking:after a buy-the-dip (long) near the lower red 50SMA at C,bodies stayed above the corresponding short-term 10SMA (pink) and rose, thenwhen the 10SMA (pink) and red ② CD 23.6% support = bottom edge of the red triangle on the right were broken on a closing basis and flipped to resistance, that was a first profit-taking timing, andthe August monthly candle closed as a bullish candle with an upper wick while the body held the lower zone,suggesting many traders took profits.

● In short,both blue ① 20SMA and red ② 50SMA traders are considering or have taken profits,yet there’s a chance that add-on longs on blue ① 20SMA could trigger, andit now seems crucial whether the monthly close can break above the pink 10SMA, the red 23.6% retrace, and the blue 23.6% retrace.The light-blue Stochastics is currently reversing and may close up by month-end, soafter the month closes with a bearish candle above the 5SMA, October could decide whether it breaks higher or gets capped.

●If it fails to break higher and falls below the recent blue ① low near the blue 20SMA,the close would straddle below the 5SMA, clearly lowering highs and forming a bearish trend that breaks the blue 20SMA,suggesting a drop toward the “returns here” area on the right, overlapping the black 200SMA.

●Focusing on SeaWaves wave behavior and sketching a possible path:it rises with a V-shaped reversal in the light-blue Stochastics butfails to make new highs, capped around the pink 23.6% retrace, thenblue ① forms an N to create the red ② low near the red 50SMA, thenred ② forms an N to create the green ③ low near the black 200SMA,which becomes the black ④ 200SMA’s C, inviting buy-the-dip longs and an attempt to make new highs.

● I had only traded USD/JPY, butGold-Dollar (XAU/USD) also looks like an interesting battleground between bulls and bears.

●It may be months away,but hypothetically,if the blue ① light-blue Stochastics reaches the top and still can’t make new highs, thenthe blue ① light-blue Stochastics reverses down from above, andprice breaks below the most recent blue ① low near the blue 20SMA,the market could get very exciting. There’s even a possibility it won’t stop at the red 50SMA and breaks below??

● Also,on the 4H chart,blue ① 20SMA and red ② 50SMA individually point in opposite directions,and while price could move cleanly if you only followed your own MA,it looks like other MAs might “get in the way” of that path, butthe chart feels like one where they will interfere to prevent that. As a mindset,instead of feeling “blocked”,think of the MAs as cooperating—this can reduce stress. For example, they often “carry candles” to the MA you’re waiting for. Thinking this way,even in daily life when you feelyou’re being obstructed from what you want to do, perhaps considerthey might actually be helping you—things might go better(^^