I’d “moved past” 160 yen, but I couldn’t “stay” there. That’s why it fell by about 5 yen.
Although it broke through 160 yen, it could not stay there.
That’s why it fell by about 5 yen to the 155 yen range.
The previous week (8/28), after breaking above 160 yen, the air said “it will go higher from here.”
However this week it turned out that突破 above 160 was merely a Illusion.
From the 160 yen level to 155.29 yen, in just a few days there was a sharp drop of about 5 yen.
Why 160 yen was a “wall”
160 yen was not just a number.
Three elements coincided at this exact spot.
① A round figure (a clean number)
Prices like 160 yen tend to attract orders.
② The 100-day moving average line was exactly overlapping
The line showing the “average price of the past 100 days” was around 160 yen at that time. It is a line many people watch.
③ Caution about intervention
At levels where Japan and the United States intervened cooperatively in late July to August.
There is caution that “it might happen again,” so buying is restrained.
Therefore 160 yen was a “strongest wall” that is not easy to break through.
Bull = optimistic, buyers
Trap = a snare
→ It looks like it’s broken to the upside, but it traps only the buyers and
moves downward.
────────────────────────────────
▼ The shape of the trap (diagram)
────────────────────────────────
●← If you jump on here…
／ ＼
／ ＼
─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ＼─ ─ ─ ─ Important milestone (160 yen)
／＼ ／ ＼
／＼／ ＼ ＼
／ ＼← A rush of selling all at once
The moment the milestone is decisively crossed, buyers are pulled back downward
into losses. Their selling pressure accelerates the downward move.
★ Therefore, after a bull trap, the decline is fast
────────────────────────────────
▼ How it actually happened this week
────────────────────────────────
9/1–9/2: temporarily broke above 160 yen
→ but unable to exceed the previous week’s high (160.15 yen)
→ signs that buying momentum was not continuing
→ a strong bearish candle on the 4-hour chart negated the breakout
9/3: fell further, breaking below 157.99 yen (nearest low) and accelerating
9/4: fell to 155.29 yen (nearly the August low)
→ US payrolls data at night exceeded expectations, rebounded to the 156 yen range
Total: from the 160s to 155.29 yen = about a 5 yen sharp drop
The most important lesson
★★★ At important milestones,
you should look at whether it stayed, not just whether it broke through ★★★
When a wick or one candle crosses the line, you rush in, thinking “It broke out!”
At important milestones, there are many contras (sell orders) waiting, so it easily pushes back.
■ ○ Good way of looking: see if it “holds”
After the breakout, see if several candles can stay above it firmly
and whether the price makes higher lows without being pushed back. If so, it is real.
If it is pulled back with only 1–2 candles, you should call it a “fake.”
■ How it was this time
It broke above 160 yen, but could not surpass the previous week’s high (160.15 yen)
→ Buying momentum did not persist = not holding
→ It was a sign of a “fake.”
【A word for beginners】
The moment of breakout is the most exciting part.
But it is also the easiest time to be fooled.
Just wait for one candle, and you can avoid many traps.
Next week’s main focus: 155 yen
154.76–155.35 yen — this is the most important daily-trend support
It overlaps with the August low (155.22 yen)
■ If 155 yen holds
It would be interpreted as a “deep pullback within a larger uptrend.”
There would remain a chart suggesting a rebound higher.
■ If 155 yen is clearly broken
The daily uptrend would be broken.
A “double top” formed by the July high and the current high would complete.
※ What a double top is…
Two peaks of roughly the same height with a valley between them
and a break below the valley is considered a top.
It forms an M-like shape.
If this happens, the market’s main players shift to
“buy the dips” → “sell rallies.”
This changes the market dynamics.
■ Background factors
・Speculation of a BOJ rate hike is growing
・Japan’s long-term interest rates have risen to levels not seen since 1996
→ More reasons to buy the yen
Be aware that the magnitude of moves can widen depending on US economic data.
Price levels to remember
163.97 yen …… July high. The first peak of a double top
160.62 yen …… 61.8% retracement from the intervention drop
160.00 yen …… Round figure + 100-day line + intervention warning = strongest wall
160.15 yen …… High of the previous week (8/28). Could not be surpassed this time
157.99 yen …… The line where the decline accelerated after breaking
155.29 yen …… September 4 low
154.76–155.35 yen …… The most important daily-trend support
149.07 yen …… Next target if 155 yen is clearly broken
Putting three weeks of movement side by side
→ “When you don’t know, wait.”
8/24–28 Mon–Thu stayed flat, and on Friday at Jackson Hole, 160 yen was breached
→ “If it moves, don’t enter.”
8/31–9/4 That breakout was a trick. About a 5 yen plunge
→ “Watch for hold, not just breakout.”
“Don’t jump on momentum. Wait for confirmation before acting.”