【9/5土】This Week's Answer Check｜Closed at 156.23 on the weekly chart, 2 wins 2 losses 1 draw
This is the record from 8/31 (Mon) to 9/4 (Fri). The weekly close was at 156.23 (down 3.78 yen from the previous week), and the weekly range was 510 pips with a bearish candle.
The Monday gap opened with almost no gap.
I will summarize how accurately the assumed daily range matched for one week.
First 60 seconds | This week's check
This week's results
| Date | Judgment | Content |
|---|---|---|
| 8/31 (Mon) | ○ | Close of 159.73 closed within the assumed range 159.47–160.74, as expected |
| 9/1 (Tue) | △ | Temporary lift above the range high, but the closing price of 160.17 returned within the range |
| 9/2 (Wed) | × | Close of 158.73 broke below the assumed range 159.78–160.66 |
| 9/3 (Thu) | × | Close of 155.80 broke below the assumed range 157.87–159.99 |
| 9/4 (Fri) | ○ | Close of 156.23 closed within the assumed range 154.41–157.66, as expected |
Mon ○ Tue △ Wed × Thu × Fri ○, this week was 2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw. The range was breached midweek when the market fell sharply. September’s monthly total is 1 win, 2 losses, 1 draw (accuracy 25%). I will continue to build steadily.
This week viewed on a weekly chart
Open160.01High160.39Low155.29Close156.23
Week change-3.78 yenWeekly range510 pipsCandlestickBearish
Results of readers’ predictions
Last Sunday’s poll (5 votes) had 60% for “up,” 40% for “flat,” and 0% for “down” → the result was -378 pips, i.e., down. The majority predicted up, so the minority won. My weekly scenario also failed, as the Friday close of 156.23 broke below the expected range 158.88–160.46. Since I had put up the bullish case as the main scenario, this obviously missed the mark ^^;
The day with the most movement this week
9/3 (Thu) had a range of 367 pips and produced a bearish candle. In the hour around 23:00, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index tends to be watched, and the price fell rapidly from 158.70 to 155.80 in one day.
IMM Yen Position
Speculators held a net short of 92,000 contracts (an increase of 29,000 contracts from the previous week). Over the past year, the position has trended toward net selling. Even during weeks when the market moved lower, net selling increased, so this is something to watch next week as well.
Verification data
This week’s range of 510 pips clearly exceeded the median weekly range of 265 pips over the past three years, making it a highly active week. Weeks with a range nearly double the median tend to be challenging for range-based assumptions. It’s hard to manage with discretion, though ^^;
Today's question
Was your net this week positive or negative?
In tomorrow at 17:00, the “Strategy Meeting,” we will deliver next week’s key indicators, weekly scenario, and Monday’s gap forecast.
If you’d like, please let us know with a “like” or a comment.
That’s all for one week’s records. The tools used for verification are summarized here.堤@FX Method Verification Channel
This fixed-point observation is posted on weekday mornings and on weekends. If you follow, new posts will arrive.Author page for Investment Navigation+
What the FX Method Research Institute publishes on GogoJungle
Note: Verification is based on USD/JPY 1-hour chart using historical data from January 2016 to March 2026. It does not indicate future performance.
Indicator data: Based on Forex Factory / Tradays; Price: Dukascopy (Bid)
Note: This reflects Stier’s personal views. Please make your own investment decisions.