[9/4 Fri] Dollar/Yen Morning Fixed Observation | The Spotlight at 21:30 U.S. Jobs Report ★★★
Nice to meet you. I’m Tsutsumi from the FX Method Verification Channel. Beginning today, I will place this “Dollar/Yen Morning Fixed Observation” here every morning. It includes that day’s economic indicators, the environment recognition of the USD/JPY daily and 4-hour charts, the expected range and main/alternative scenarios, and the previous business day’s recap. The numbers are generated mechanically following a fixed procedure, so the scale won’t drift from day to day. On weekends, I’ll post the week’s results and the strategy for the next week.
This is the morning record for Friday, September 4. The main focus today is 21:30 US employment data★★★. The current USD/JPY price is 155.66 yen, with an expected range of 154.41–157.66 yen.
Recap of the previous business day was a miss ×. The following are placed in the order of indicators, charts, and scenarios.
First 60 seconds — Today’s Economic Indicators
Today’s Economic Indicators (9/4 8:30 to next 8:29 JST)
Today is Gotō-day (early trading day due to the 5th being Saturday).There is a tendency for dollar-buying demand toward the 9:55 fix.
| Time (JST) | Country | Indicator | Importance | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 |  | Consumer Expenditure (YoY) | ★ | -1.6% | -3.3% |
| 15:00 |  | Germany New Orders (MoM) | ★ | 0.3% | 3.1% |
| 17:00 | | Italy Retail Sales (MoM) | ★ | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| 17:30 |  | Construction PMI | ★ | 45.8 | 44.7 |
| 17:50 | | Bailey, Bank of England Governor Speech | ★★★ | — | — |
| 18:00 | | Retail Sales (MoM) | ★ | 0.3% | -0.3% |
| 21:30 |  | Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) | ★★★ | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 21:30 | | Employment Situation | ★★★ | 55K | -23K |
| 21:30 | | Unemployment Rate | ★★★ | 4.1% | 4.1% |
Today’s Movers
The US employment report at 21:30 is forecast at 55K, previous -23K, indicating the market has priced in a return from negative to positive. If the actual is higher than forecast, the dollar tends to strengthen; if lower, it weakens. The direction is likely to be influenced by the unemployment rate (forecast 4.1%) and average hourly earnings (forecast 0.3%) at the same time. This is the largest event at the start of the month that can influence the Fed’s employment assessment, so its effect on USD/JPY is likely to be substantial. During the day, it’s Gotō-day with the 9:55 fix-driven dollar-buying demand also likely to be in focus.
Where USD/JPY stands now
Current value155.66 (Previous close 155.80 / -2.90 from the previous day)
Expected Range154.41 (Pivot S1) ～ 157.66 (Resistance)
Main OutlookHolding range from 154.41 to 157.66. Direction awaiting US indicators after 21:30
AlternativeBreak above 157.66 to test 158.08 / Break below 154.41 to 153.02
Daily Chart Environment
The daily chart is in a consolidation with moving averages intertwined, three lines entangled and no clear direction. The current price 155.66 sits below MA20 (159.05). Upward resistance is 157.66, above that 160.03; support is 155.13. The 20-day high is 160.39 (9/2), the 20-day low is 155.30 (9/3). The Fibonacci retracement 0.618 sits at 156.70. Daily ATR14 is 110 pips.
Key Lines on the 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows a downtrend with MA200 > MA75 > MA20, and current price below MA20 (158.83). There is resistance at 158.60, then 160.30 above. Since no obvious support is detected by automatic detection, moves may be guided by the daily chart levels. The retracement from 160.39 to 155.30 shows 0.382 at 157.24. ATR14 is 67 pips.
Connecting Indicators and Charts
Today at 17:50, Bailey, the BOE Governor, will speak, and at 21:30 the US employment data, average hourly earnings, and unemployment rate will be released together. Until then, expect little movement around Pivot P (156.69), with direction awaiting the 21:30 reactions. If it breaks above 157.66, the next target is Pivot R1 (158.08); if it breaks below Pivot S1 (154.41), watch for 153.02.
Also in the Video — Morning Fixed Observation for USD/JPY
Recap of the Previous Business Day
It was a miss ×. The close at 155.80 fell below the expected range of 157.87–159.99. Since we were watching the consolidation, the downside breakout was clearly ruled out^^;
Yesterday’s US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.4 vs. 54.2 expected, beating expectations. After the data, USD/JPY moved 20.8 pips in 15 minutes and 44.1 pips in an hour, both directions trending upward. The reaction to the indicator alone was fairly straightforward, I think.
Verification Data
Historical data shows that the USD/JPY average price range in the first hour after US employment data release (36 past occurrences) is 110 pips, and the rate at which the initial direction continued after one hour was 78%. The initial move tends to continue more than expected; with discretionary trading, jumping in is not easy ^^;
The rate of bullish days after the 20-day low was breached (past 10 years, 232 occurrences) was 57%, with an average change of +5 pips. It’s almost five minutes of data; you can’t decide the direction solely from statistics. This time, it will depend on the contents of the indicators.
Today’s Question
Which will be tested first, 157.66 or 154.41?
I’ll post this week’s recap tomorrow noon ^^
If you’d like, please like or comment.
Thank you for reading again this week. A summary of the tools used for the verification is available here.Tsutsumi @ FX Method Verification Channel
Indicator data: Based on Forex Factory / Tradays, edited by us. Price data: Twelve Data (as of 2026-09-04 09:00)
※These are Tsutsumi’s personal opinions. Please make your own investment decisions.