September 4, 2026 Issue・Morning Edition】Launch FX Major 4 Tickers Daily Market Analysis & Trade Scenarios

?️ 【September 4, 2026 Morning Edition】 Lunchtime FX Major 4 Stocks Daily Market Analysis & Trading Scenarios

Good morning! It’s “Lunchtime FX.”
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This is the morning edition for Friday, September 4. Yesterday, Bank of Japan Board Member Takata hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes and a sizable rise, which accelerated yen buying. The USD/JPY fell from the high 159s to the low 156s in the Tokyo afternoon, and to the low 155.30s during NY hours. This is the yen strength level seen in recent months. On the US side, weaker-than-expected August ADP employment and a NY Fed President suggesting no hurry to raise rates contributed to a material narrowing of the rate differentials from both sides of the Pacific.

On the other hand, US stocks in after-hours traded firmly, with the Dow hitting new highs, and reports suggesting tensions in the Middle East easing supported the Nikkei 225 futures to rise by more than 400 points in after-hours trading. The yen’s strength versus dollar and the growth in US equities appear to continue tugging today’s Tokyo market.

And the day's biggest focus is,At 21:30, the U.S. August employment report. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to rise about 55,000–58,000, and given last month’s weak result with a large downward revision, this report’s contents will heavily influence future FOMC rate decisions.

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※ The analyses in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment solicitation. Please make your own final investment decisions.

1️⃣ USD/JPY

Current level: about 155.30–155.60 yen

? Pre-event Strategy (Until 21:30)

During the Tokyo fixing window (9:55), real-money trading tends to be active. Within the 155.23–156.50 range, base the strategy on S1 buy near 155.23 and sell near 156.50 as routine range-bound trading. Do not chase large moves; as 20:30–21:00 nears, it’s prudent to reduce risk exposure.

? Market Structure & View

A 2-day fall of about 4 yen signs a clear trend change, but the rapid decline may lead to a near-term pause in the 155.23–155.04 zone as price discovery occurs. If the employment data is Scenario A (weak), a break below 154 could be possible; if Scenario B (strong), 157.0–157.5 becomes a reasonable near-term target given BOJ materials’ influence.

? Approaches by Timeframe

• Daily:From the recent drop, first confirm whether price stabilization time is coming.
• 4-hour:Range of 155.23–156.50. Focus on price action for about 30 minutes after the data release.
• Hourly:If 156.50 is reached and momentum is weak, use it as a basis for selling while continuing to watch BOJ materials.
• 15-minute:If price quickly reverts near S1/S2, consider it a sign to buy as downside momentum wanes.
• 5-minute:After 21:30 release, avoid chasing immediate moves; observe several candles before acting.

2️⃣ Nikkei 225 (Nikkei Average)

Current level: about 64,700–64,850 yen (after-hours basis)

? Pre-event Strategy (Until 21:30)

From open (9:00) to the close before lunch, trade within a 64,000–64,850 box. Buy near the bottom (64,000) and sell near the top (64,850) within the range, avoiding large breaks until a clear breakout occurs. The afternoon (from 13:00) tends to thin liquidity ahead of US jobs data, leading to a subdued price action.

? Market Structure & View

Riding the dual winds of US stock strength and Middle East easing versus rapid yen appreciation. If Scenario A (weak) holds, US stocks may remain solid while yen climbs; direction could be unclear. If Scenario B (strong) holds, US yields rise; tech may face headwinds, but dollar's rebound could support exporters.

? Approaches by Timeframe

• Daily:Check if major moving averages and the 77,057 yen lower bound hold.
• 4-hour:Look for price action around 64,000–64,850; weigh the bias.
• Hourly:If price surpasses 64,500, use the move as a signal to buy or to re-enter longs if it holds.
• 15-minute:During yen strength, a rebound from a dip could signal a buy if price returns with a wick.
• 5-minute:After the data, avoid forcing trades until a clear direction emerges.

3️⃣ GOLD (Spot / XAUUSD)

Current level: about 4,410–4,430 dollars

? Pre-event Strategy (Until 21:30)

From Asian sessions into early London, price action tends to be relatively mild with a narrow 4,400–4,422 range. Do not force directional bets; repeatedly buy at the lower end (4,400) and sell at the upper end (4,422) within the range, and wait for the data release to break out for larger moves.

? Market Structure & View

A weaker ADP data has provided a dollar-bearish and rate-lowering wind; RSI around 14 days has retraced toward 50, reducing overbought conditions. If employment data is Scenario A (weak), 4,460 could be tested, with possible further rebound toward the 200-day line; if Scenario B (strong), expect a return toward 4,339 and potential selling into the 75-day line around 4,259.

? Approaches by Timeframe

• Daily:As long as 4,356–4,339 holds, maintain a buy-on-dip bias.
• 4-hour:Break above 4,422 (25-day) is the next hurdle.
• Hourly:If 4,422 is reached, assess whether it continues to 4,460.
• 15-minute:If price returns to high in the retracement, but then reverses, treat as a buy signal continuing the rebound.
• 5-minute:Immediately after employment data, price can be volatile; avoid relying on a fixed exit point; close out when momentum fades.

4️⃣ Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Current level: about 76,950–77,900 dollars

? Pre-event Strategy (Until 21:30)

BTC trades in a 24-hour market, so from the Asia session into the daytime in Japan, price action within 77,057–78,000 is likely to be the norm. Within this range, stay in range trading and, after 21:00, when the employment data looms, reduce new positions.

? Market Structure & View

After August’s rally, a correction and a cautious mood persist, but price remains above major moving averages. Whether price holds 77,057 is a key near-term pivot; falling below could significantly lower the downside target. If the employment data is Scenario A (weak), expect a rebound aided by rate-cut expectations; if Scenario B (strong), the environment may be tempered by rising rates, with a test below 77,057 possible.

? Approaches by Timeframe

• Daily:Continue to monitor whether major moving averages and the 77,057 support hold.
• 4-hour:Evaluate the strength of price action around 78,000.
• Hourly:If price closes above 78,000, use it as a sign that the cautious mood has faded and begin buying.
• 15-minute:If risk-on/off shifts conflict with stock market sentiment, treat as a temporary fakeout.
• 5-minute:Around employment data, prices can swing; avoid fixing take-profit levels too rigidly and exit where momentum stalls.

? September 4 Issue Audio & Chart Commentary Video

If you’d like to listen while on the move or while working, please watch the video to understand the charts as well.

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