9/3 Morning 6 AM Dollar-Yen Support-Resistance Turnover Status (Monthly 23.6% Retracement; Is it in a support-turned-resistance? )

On the morning of 9/1, the monthly close of USD/JPY rose above the red② 23.6% retracement support (158.296) to confirm,and by the morning of 9/3 at 6:00 a.m., it had retraced toward around 158.296,maintaining the upper zone of the 23.6% retracement and aiming to make a new high, or breaking below to form a downtrend from a higher high to lower high? Confirming.

Below, I will explain the status of support/resistance turns using moving averages on the monthly, 4-hour, 1-hour, and 15-minute charts..

＜Monthly Chart＞

●Monthly Chart shows that, as of the morning of 9/1, after the red② 50SMA ascent ABCD’s CD portion’s 23.6% retracement support (158.296) was cleared by the monthly close,,by 9/3 at 6:00 a.m., price had retraced back to this line.

●If price rises,the September monthly close would likely maintain the upper zone and transform into support/resistance at the 23.6% retracement.

●Conversely,if the price breaks below the previous bullish candle’s low (155.221) from this situation,the short-term MA on the monthly chart and the 23.6% retracement could be crossed, forming a candlestick-level downtrend with a lower high and lower low,, start taking profits after clearly breaking below the 23.6% retracement in the up move, andthe price could fall toward the blue 20SMA and red 50SMA crossing into around the pink Box top edge (near 139.883).

●Blue・Red・Green・Black dashed arrows illustrate the trading directions aimed for by traders using each moving average.

① 20SMA Trader would long if the price falls toward the blue 20SMA and the 5SMA flips to support/resistance after a rally, targeting a new high

赤② 50SMA Trader would profit-take if the CD’s 23.6% retracement (158.296) is broken below, then expects price to return to D→C,

and緑③ 100SMA Trader would likely start taking profits on a long after the blue ①20SMA trader’s pullback is ignored, and then decide how to trade next once their margin returns to hand

黒④ 200SMA Trader would long if price declines toward the black 200SMA and a turn to support around the 50SMA occurs, aiming for a new high

●If the price moves similarly to the straight decline in the left-side Lehman Shock preceding the event,,the green③ 161.8% level (62.361) ≒ red② 42.3.6% (61.896) area could be targets of a straight decline.

（The Lehman Shock later rebounded to around the blue① 20SMA area where it found resistance, so if a similar pattern occurs, from around 61–62 it could rise to near the green100SMA area where it finds resistance, which might be named some〇〇ショック, and someone might be trying to name it now as a vanity prediction）.

＜4-Hour Chart＞

●4-Hour Chart shows thatthe price reached the red② 23.6% retracement support (158.296) that it had wanted to reach by the morning of 9/1, last night.

（Normally,after the monthly candlestick closes above,the next step is to confirm whether that line will hold as support, i.e., support/resistance flip, andwhether it will hold as support and rise or break down. I think they are in the battle here.If it goes up, it could take until the end of September to confirm, butif the yellow ⑤ low is broken below, I think it would be a quick breakdown.

●Blue・Red・Green・Black dashed arrows illustrate the trading directions aimed for by traders using each moving average.

Blue① 20SMA Trader would, after rising with the ABCD on the up move to around the black 200SMA, then on profit-taking returning to point C, and if price then rises toward the blue 20SMA area, flip at the 5SMA to support/resistance and short, aiming to break below the B point near the black ④ low.

赤② 50SMA Trader and緑③ 100SMA Trader similarly expect the low at black ④ to be the B point of a declining ABCD, with the candlesticks rising toward the color’s moving averages that are turning downward, and then if a support/resistance flip occurs on the lower moving averages (10, 20 SMA), shorting and aiming to break below the yellow ⑤ low.

（Blue①→Red②→Green③ shows waves descending ABCD; and if Red② and Green③ B or D points fall, then yellow ⑤ low will likely be approached） indicates traders are waiting to push toward that outcome.

Black ④ 200SMA Trader works with the blue ① 20SMA Trader, coordinating to push from the blue ① up to the vicinity of the black 200SMA with the ABCD wave, then riding the move back to C at point C from the blue ① long profit to short at around black ④ 200SMA vicinity, aiming to break below yellow ⑤ low.

●Stochastics suggest that blue divergence creates the right side of the pink wave, and the pink divergence creates the right side of the green wave, and the black wave’s right side may be formed, with the black wave divergence, suggesting a possible formation of a yellow wave.

＜1-Hour Chart＞

●1-Hour Chart shows blue・Red・Green・Black・Yellow at the same positions (AAAAA point and BBBBB point) being recognized together, like in soccer, after moving each line forward, teammates at point B behind pass the ball back to their color lines, receive the ball on their color line, and push toward point D beyond B to advance the ball by pass or dribble, indicating a coordinated approach to reach the goal (lol).

（Ideally, blue → red → green → black → yellow would be the order, as the blue line’s C point drops yellow ⑤’s B point to create D point, and if red line’s C point drops a new B point to create a new D point, then that D point becomes the new B point for green, black, and yellow, moving toward the goal)

＜15-Minute Chart＞

●15-Minute Chart shows that, like the 1-hour chart, after the red② down move completes ABCD, the question is whether blue①’s down ABCD will form inside red②’s CD or not.

● After this, the price would push down the head with blue20SMA,,if the black 5SMA breaks below and the candle closes below with the 5SMA acting as support turned resistance, it would short, aiming for profit at B’s break below +α.

●If it breaks above and clears the red 50SMA, the move to profit from short positions near C around red 50SMA would accelerate as price rises, but the green 100SMA, black 200SMA, and yellow 400SMA traders have yellow ⑤ low as B point, so if it turns downward and the candle head is held near those moving averages and a short around the short-term MA (20/50/100SMA) triggers a support/resistance flip, they would target yellow ⑤ break below.

<最後に＞

● First, in various timeframes, there is a situation where a descending ABCD CD is waiting, and each moving average is pressing the candle head, so I would short while watching for support/resistance flips on the corresponding short-term MA and wait for a break below the red② 23.6% retracement support (158.296 around) to confirm the move.

● But, since, on the morning of 9/1, the monthly close rose above the red② 23.6% retracement support (158.296) and is now in a stage of confirming support (resistance-turning), a break below could be difficult,, though personally I can’t help but hope for a more challenging and exciting development or a dramatic play like when watching the World Cup or World Series.