Gold has not yet found support and stopped falling. Nevertheless, I will keep buying more.

Start with the conclusion.

Righ now I view gold as biased toward long positions.

However, do not go all in at once.With thin lots, buy a little more each time it dips.

Take-profit target is around 4,500. I’m looking for the bottom around 4,230.

I will list the reasons in order.

From 4,700 to 4,320. It has fallen too much

First, a check of the current situation.

Gold was sold off sharply from around the 4,700 high.

Now it’s around 4,320. That’s a drop of nearly 400 dollars in price range.

Moreover, it hasn’t paused much along the way. It didn’t slide gradually; it fell with momentum.

When I see movements like this, what I first consider isn’t the direction.

Has it overrun its run?

In moments of big movement, those who missed jump in, while those who had the opposite position rush to cut losses. Opposite orders pile in at once.

So it overshoots the level where it should have paused.

And that force doesn’t last long. The flood of orders ends once they’re exhausted.

The overrun tends to come back.

This isn’t market intuition; it’s about participant behavior.

The bigger trend hasn’t been broken yet

If you look only at short-term, it’s downward. I’ll admit that.

But please look a little further back.

Gold is in a major uptrend between roughly 3,950 and 4,700. This decline is occurring within that move.

In other words,it’s not the end of the trend but a correctionI see it that way.

If the uptrend structure remains alive, the drop becomes a pullback.

So this buying isn’t a counter-trend bet. It’s about buying on a pullback within the uptrend.

If you don’t separate this, your judgment will be fuzzy.

The meaning of “buying while it’s falling”

“Are you buying if it hasn’t stopped falling yet?”

Some may think that. It makes sense.

But if you wait for a clear stop to buy, you’re usually late.

No one buys at the bottom. You only know the bottom was the bottom after the fact.

Waiting for confirmation won’t make it safer. It just worsens your entry price.

That’s why I don’t wait for a stop confirmation.

Instead,enter with a setup that can tolerate being wrong.

This leads to the next discussion.

Target is 4,500. The bottom is around 4,230

I’ll write concrete numbers.

Take-profit target is around 4,500.

I assume some of the decline will rebound; I don’t expect a full reversal.

I’m looking at around 4,230 on the low end.

I think it could reach this level. Therefore, don’t buy everything at the current price.

It’s important that these two numbers are fixed.

Because you’ve decided in advance how far it can drop, you can reserve buying power up to that point.

If you don’t decide, you’ll end up buying to the limit at the current price and only praying afterward.

Therefore, don’t buy all at once

The plan is simple.

With thin lots, buy a little more each time it falls.

Don’t try to hit it all in one shot.

What happens then?

If your analysis is wrong and it falls further from there, if you had entered in one go, you’d be carrying a large unrealized loss at that moment.

But if you stagger your entries, you can add to your position at a better price with each decline. Your average cost goes down.

Being wrong won’t be a fatal blow.

However, there’s an important premise.

That premise is the thin-lot approach.

If you don’t adhere to this, it becomes a simple averaging-down. If you enter heavy and then add more, you’ll be wiped out the moment it moves lower.

Because it’s thin, you can split. Because you can split, you don’t need to target a single entry.

And you should decide in advance where you’ll give up. If the price exceeds the level you set, you abandon the scenario at that point.

Diving into bargains with a stubborn mindset is different.

When this scenario collapses

Because I wrote a bullish piece, I’ll also note when it could go wrong.

If the lower limit you’re watching is clearly broken and won’t come back from there.

At that time, you would judge that the uptrend structure is broken and temporarily drop the long bias.

How will you admit your mistake? Decide that in advance.

Positions without that decision are just wishes.

Summary

・Gold fell from around 4,700 to around 4,320, about 400 dollars
・The drop was steep. Consider the possibility that it overran
・The big-picture uptrend structure is not broken yet. Therefore, it’s not a counter-trend but a pullback; waiting for a stop confirmation only makes the entry price worse
・Take-profit target around 4,500, bottom around 4,230
・Don’t buy at one price; scoop up in thin lots as it falls
・Decide the conditions for breakdown in advance

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