Crypto Asset Market Analysis [September 1]

This week’s market was flat, and while there was bad news such as fund outflows due to the hacking of the crypto payment service rain and security risks in Cosmos, there was also positive news like Strategy Inc. purchasing Bitcoin for the first time in a while, and Ethereum purchases by Bitmain and Japanese listed company TORICO.

The large rise since last week has calmed down, but I feel that stock-specific news—such as Charles Schwab’s listings and ENA’s buyback of its own token—are also important when navigating the broader crypto trend.

At the end of the article, we also introduce insights from a well-regarded domestic crypto investoron the background and analysis behind the sudden Bitcoin buying.

— Main topic starts here —

Today’s price movements and background in the cryptocurrency market (as of 2026/9/1)

Today’s price action and market conditions for major assets

Bitcoin (BTC)

The current price range is roughly 78,000 dollars to 78,100 dollars. Over the past 24 hours, it has been mostly flat to slightly lower, and media reports often cite about minus 0.5 percent.Looking back at the most recent1 week, there has been no clear direction, with continued slight declines or range-bound trading.

Bitcoin daily chart

Ethereum (ETH)

The current price range is about 2,455 dollars to 2,460 dollars. Over the past 24 hours, it has been mostly flat to slightly higher, and over the most recent 1 week, it has been slightly firmer overall, moving modestly higher while maintaining resilience.

Ethereum daily chart

BNB (Build and Build)

The current price range is about 686 dollars to 687 dollars. Over the past 24 hours, it has been mostly flat with a slight downward bias, and over the most recent 1 week it has continued to see small declines (soft tone).

XRP (Ripple)

The current price is about 1.38 dollars. Over the past 24 hours it has posted a slight gain, but over the most recent 1 week, the trend has been somewhat weak, with some reports noting a weekly drop in the minus 3 percent range.

Solana (SOL)

The current price is moving in the 102 dollar range. Over the past 24 hours it has been somewhat bearish, but over the most recent 1 week in total, it has shown relatively strong performance, with positive returns of about plus 3 percent to 6 percent reported.

Overall market trends and environment

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is generally moving around 2.5 trillion dollars to 2.7 trillion dollars.The Fear and Greed Index, which reflects investor sentiment,Fear and Greed Index, shows “69,” placing the market in the “Greed” territory.

Looking at intraday moves, there were moments of “modest gains” across the market in the morning, but towards midday Bitcoin, a major asset, turned somewhat soft, resulting in a range-bound market lacking clear direction overall.

An important point here is that the market is not plunging.After briefly surpassing 80,000 dollars at the end of August, it has been consolidating profit-taking and the like, continuing to range-trade between 77,000 dollars and 79,200 dollars.

Explanation of factors behind today’s price formation

• Rise in long-term U.S. interest rates

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose from about 4.75 percent to 4.76 percent, which increases returns on safe assets like cash and Treasuries, thereby reducing the relative appeal of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and capping their upside.

• Geopolitical risk in the Middle East (U.S.–Iran situation) and the surge in crude oil prices

Reports emerged that 2 oil tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz, heightening tensions between the U.S. and Iran. As a result, Brent crude, a global benchmark, rose to 90 dollars per barrel and further surpassed 92 dollars in a sharp spike.Concerns about reaccelerating inflation due to higher oil and a stronger risk-off stance led to a moment where Bitcoin dropped to the low 77,000 dollars, but dip-buying followed and it recovered to around 78,000 dollars.

• Rising expectations of a Fed (FRB) rate hike in September

Following remarks by key figures at the Jackson Hole symposium, financial markets have begun to factor in an increased probability of an additional rate hike at the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

However, the market is not entirely bearish. Continued Bitcoin accumulation by corporations (such as Strategy and Strive), ongoing buying interest in Ethereum, and themes related to real-world asset tokenization (RWA) are providing strong downside support.

Price movement from mid-August to now

Up to mid-August

Bitcoin had been range-bound in a narrow band around 62,000 dollars to 65,000 dollars.

Around August 17 to 21

The U.S. Treasury announced a policy to expand purchases of long-term Treasuries. The market interpreted this as a “trade to prepare for monetary easing/currency debasement.” This triggered a massive short squeeze as accumulated short positions were liquidated, sending prices soaring.For August as a whole, the monthly gain reached about plus 25 percent, marking the strongest August performance since 2017.

Around August 27

The rally continued, and the price temporarily broke above 80,000 dollars, reaching a high of about 81,300 dollars to 81,350 dollars.

August 28

The rise paused and reversed lower. On a closing basis, it fell about 3 percent, pulling back to the 77,800

August 29 to September 1 (today)

A tug-of-war has continued within the 77,300 to 79,200

In summary, “although prices have rebounded sharply from the bottom, the 80,000

For future downside reference, 77,000 to 77,300 dollars is expected to act as support, while on the upside, around 79,200 dollars is a key level; if broken, the next targets are the 80,000 to 81,000 dollar range. By asset, Solana has shown relatively strong weekly performance, while XRP has lagged somewhat.

Bitcoin spot ETF fund flows (around the past 1 week)

August 24: plus 330 million 3,760 thousand dollars

August 25: plus 310 million 1,440 thousand dollars

August 26: plus 220 million 3,210 thousand dollars

August 27: plus 240 million 4,220 thousand dollars

August 28 (Friday): minus 200 million 180 thousand dollars (this temporarily ended the previous streak of 9 consecutive business days of net inflows)

August 31 (Monday): plus 210 million 1,670 thousand dollars

Summary and features of flows

For the week from August 24 to 28, the net inflow totaled about 920 million 2,000 thousand dollars in the positive.

Over the past 5 business days (from August 25 to August 31), the total is about 800 million 0,000 thousand dollars in the positive.

For all of August, cumulative net inflows reached about 3.3 billion to 3.5 billion dollars, the strongest monthly inflow since October 2025.

Technical analysis and the overhead wall (resistance around 81,000 dollars)

Although Bitcoin recorded a large rise of about 24 percent in August, it has stalled below the 81,000 dollar wall. This is due to the 50-week moving average being in that area and a thick supply wall (overhead supply from prior volume) concentrated between 81,000 and 86,000 dollars. In addition, the seasonal bearish tendency in September and expectations of further Fed (FRB) rate hikes are headwinds. However, institutional inflows via ETFs

Details of macroeconomic and geopolitical news

◯ Rising crude oil prices and inflation concerns

Following the attack on 2 oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude futures surged above 92 dollars per barrel. Financial markets have begun pricing in a “resurgence of inflation (2nd wave).” The policy rate is currently held in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, but if oil-driven inflation persists, expectations for rate cuts will recede and, conversely, the September FOMC will see heightened focus on a possible rate hike, pushing up yields across the curve and increasing funding costs in equities and real estate. In an oil-driven cost-push inflation phase, risk-off and rising rates tend to lead, creating strong short- to mid-term headwinds for crypto.

◯ Remarks by Kevin Warsh and market reaction

Kevin Warsh, after becoming Fed (FRB) Chair, gave his first Jackson Hole address. Immediately after, Bitcoin dollars at one point. In his speech he stated, “My criterion is exceedingly clear. I must be confident that underlying inflation is converging toward the target (2 percent) clearly and at a sufficient pace. Otherwise, we at the central bank still have policies (tightening) to execute,” emphasizing a hawkish stance.

◯CZ (Changpeng Zhao)’s investment philosophy of “four no’s” and his background

Binance founder CZ (Changpeng Zhao) shared his strict “four no’s (things not to do)” for managing his assets, drawing significant attention.They are: first, “no stock investing”; second, “no real estate speculation”; third, “no short-term speculation in crypto”; and fourth, “do not hold excessive cash.”

According to media outlet “Hong Kong 01,” CZ attended the international conference “Bitcoin Asia 2026” in Hong Kong and, in an exclusive interview, recounted his dramatic life rising from rural Jiangsu, China, to becoming a global billionaire.

He moved to Canada at age 12, worked part-time at McDonald’s and a gas station to pay tuition and living expenses, and graduated from McGill University.2005 In , he started a systems development company in Shanghai and ran it for 8 years, but his assets were nearly zero at the time. A major turning point came in 2013, when he sold his condo in Shanghai and invested his entire net worth into Bitcoin. Later, in 2017, he founded the crypto exchange Binance and grew it into the world’s largest exchange in just 5 months—an exceptional speed.

He argues that he holds most of his assets long-term in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, and strongly asserts that “continuing to hold fiat (cash), which keeps losing value due to inflation, is the most foolish investment behavior.”

◯U.S. debt issues and views from Treasury Secretary Bessent and Ray Dalio

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said, “The only way out of America’s massive national debt problem is to lower the debt ratio relatively through economic growth (overcome it through growth).”

In response, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, pointed out, “Historically, every nation with a severe debt problem has claimed it will ‘grow out of it,’ but without exception they ultimately chose to print money and reduce the real value of debt through currency debasement (inflation),” expressing caution toward fiat currencies.

Individual news related to Bitcoin (BTC)

◯Large additional Bitcoin purchase by MicroStrategy (now Strategy Inc.)

Led by Michael Saylor, Strategy Inc. newly purchased 4,603BTC for about 360 million 6,900 thousand dollars (roughly 50 billion yen). While it was thought last week that they hadn’t added, it became clear they moved quickly in the market. This brings the company’s total holdings to 845,000BTC, with unrealized gains exceeding 4 billion dollars.

◯ 12 years since the passing of Hal Finney

On this day 12 years ago (the 28th), Hal Finney, the legendary cryptographer and programmer who was the first in history to receive a Bitcoin transaction from Satoshi Nakamoto on the Bitcoin network, passed away. He battled amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and continued writing code in bed until the very end. His achievements and spirit live on as a cornerstone of today’s cryptocurrency and blockchain technology.

◯Countdown to the next Bitcoin halving

Until the next (5th) Bitcoin halving, there are 85,000 blocks remaining.In days, about 590 days later (around 2028 spring), miners’ new issuance rewards are scheduled to be cut in half. Historically, around halving events, prices have surged significantly due to supply-demand imbalances.

◯Tom Lee maintains his 150k-dollar target

Tom Lee of Strategas Research reiterated his bullish call that Bitcoin will reach 150k dollars. He said, “Globally, only a small fraction of the population owns crypto. We are now at the stage where full-scale institutional participation, led by Wall Street, is accelerating, and the 4th quarter (October to December) will be the real phase of the market.” He also noted that the surge in volumes in related names supports active institutional activity, and analyzed that the current price rise is only the first wave.

◯CZ’s ultra-long-term price outlook and AI agent concept

At the Hong Kong conference, CZ said, “It won’t take 25 years for Bitcoin to reach 1 million dollars per coin. It will get there much faster. The moment it surpasses gold’s market cap could arrive in the next bull market.” He further revealed that he is currently collaborating with -related firms and discussing issuing his own token.“In the future, billions of AI agents (autonomous AI programs) will engage in economic activity and autonomous trading, and the settlement medium they use will undoubtedly be cryptocurrencies,” he predicted.

◯Arthur Hayes explains the correlation between U.S. Treasury buybacks and Bitcoin’s rise

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, discussed Treasury Secretary Bessent’s plan to expand buybacks of long-term U.S. Treasuries. With the 10-year yield at 4.75% and a rise into the 5% range becoming plausible, buybacks effectively inject U.S. dollar liquidity into the market.When money floods the market, it rushes into scarce assets with issuance caps like Bitcoin and gold. He said that if the FRB

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