September 1, 2026 issue [Launch FX] Major 4 symbols Daily market analysis & trade scenarios

Good morning, everyone. This is "LongFX".
Today is September 1st (Tuesday), a month-start market with volatility clearly different from yesterday, driven by expectations ahead of the weekend U.S. August employment report, and after-hours Nikkei futures sudden rebound and the 160-yen level tug-of-war for USD/JPY.
In this issue, we go beyond routine numeric checks and focus on where the large investors’ intents have shifted today after yesterday’s price action. For the four major assets—Dollar/Yen, Nikkei 225 futures, GOLD, and BTC—we thoroughly articulate concrete trading approaches to avoid traps (stop hunts) and capture high-advantage support/resistance turns. Please use this as a thinking axis to build today's winning positions!

1. USD/JPY

〜 Turn of resistance/support at 160.00 and liquidity recovery (stop hunt) at 159.20 〜

Current value: around 159.70 to 159.80

? Today’s market structure and large players’ targets

From last night into this morning, the 160.00 big figure was breached and moved into the high-159s. Building on yesterday’s price-alert mood, today enters the verification phase of whether 160.00 has become resistance (resistance turned support).

? Specific approaches for each time frame

• Daily [environment recognition]:
  The uptrend remains intact, but the real body of candles is shrinking, suggesting diminishing upside momentum. It is essential to avoid being trapped high around 160 and to wait for a pullback to S1 (159.20) or S2 (158.60).
• 4-hour [pullback buying preparation]:
  Range structure of 159.20 to 160.50. The current location is near the lower end of the range; if it bounces off S1 (159.20) with a long lower wick and holds, a short-term long targeting 160.00 could be pursued.
• 1-hour [turning resistance to support]:
  Past support at 160.00 (R1) has turned into resistance. If price rises toward 160.00 and shows rejection (e.g., bearish engulfing), a short-term short aiming for 159.20 becomes viable.
• 15-minute [stop-hunt targeting]:
  Briefly dip below the near-term low of S1 (159.20) to trigger typical retail stop losses, then a long setup appears on the 15-minute chart with a long lower wick (pin bar) as liquidity is recovered (stop loss: below 158.90).

2. Nikkei 225 futures

〜 Night session recovers to the 66,000 level. Will it fill the gap or be capped higher? 〜

Current value: around 65,900–66,100 (futures quotes)

? Today’s market structure and large players’ targets

From yesterday’s cash low of 64,830, the futures reversed sharply to 66,100 in after-hours trading. The momentum of the prior downtrend has weakened and is shifting into a wave testing the gap-fill around 66,400 on 8/28.

? Specific approaches for each time frame

• Daily [environment recognition]:
  Despite a strong daily support around 64,500, a powerful lower wick forms, indicating buyer enthusiasm. On the daily level, the move appears to be resuming toward the upper end of the range.
• 4-hour [follow the rebound wave]:
  V-shaped recovery from 64,830 breaks the four-hour downtrend; the bias temporarily shifts to buying on dips.
• 1-hour [turn resistance to long]:
  Wait for a pullback to the 65,300–65,500 zone; once a lower wick is confirmed on the 1-hour chart, follow with a long targeting 66,400.
• 15-minute [sell after gap-fill achievement]:
  If the price reaches the gap-fill line at 66,400 during the early session to European hours and a double top forms on the 15-minute chart, a contrarian short aiming for 65,800 could be taken.

3. GOLD (spot gold / XAUUSD)

〜 Double bottom around 4,430 and break of the 4,480 level 〜

Current value: around 4,455.00 to 4,465.00

? Today’s market structure and large players’ targets

With a pause in U.S. rate hikes, a strong buy support around 4,430 (S1) has been confirmed, forming a double bottom. The market is shifting to a base-building phase after selling pressure abates.

? Specific approaches for each time frame

• Daily [environment recognition]:
  Healthy daily adjustment within an uptrend. Since S1 (4,430) remains intact, the basic stance is to continue buying on dips.
• 4-hour [double bottom formation]:
  Forming a two-legged bottom with 4,430 tested twice but not broken. Buy-the-dips favored while staying above S1.
• 1-hour [breakout-following long]:
  If price clearly breaks above R1 (4,480) on a 1-hour candle, anticipate a continuation to 4,520 with a long setup following a resistance-turn
• 15-minute [pin-bar setup]:
  A quick pullback to around 4,440–4,445 with a long setup on a 15-minute chart after a bullish pin bar, with a stop below 4,425.

4. Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

〜 Bottoming after leverage liquidations and whether 78,800 can be broken 〜

Current value: around 78,200 to 78,500

? Today’s market structure and large players’ targets

A large-scale long liquidation of about $360 million has subsided, forming a bottoming pattern starting at 77,300 (S1). The key focus today is whether price can break above the sell wall at R1 78,800.

? Specific approaches for each time frame

• Daily [environment recognition]:
  A large box range in the high 77,300–81,000 area within an uptrend. Consider this a volatility-adjustment period rather than trend breakdown, with high odds of continuing to buy on dips.
• 4-hour [inverse head-and-shoulders formation]:
  Right shoulder forming on the inverted head-and-shoulders bottom pattern anchored at 77,300. As long as price remains above 78,000, the bias remains long.
• 1-hour [R1 breakout long]:
  If price clears above R1 (78,800) on a 1-hour candle, pursue a follow-through long toward 80,000.
• 15-minute [pullback low catching]:
  During a localized pullback to 77,800–78,000, wait for a lower wick on the 15-minute chart and enter a short-term long, with a stop below 77,400.

? Today's overall summary

Today, September 1st, is a day of fresh liquidity at the month’s start and adjustments ahead of the Friday U.S. August employment report. Do not blindly rely on yesterday’s line; focus on the price actions at the newly challenged levels today (160.00, 66,400, 4,480, 78,800) and trade accordingly!

【Disclaimer】
This article is for objective chart and market data analysis and information provision, and does not constitute recommendations or advice for specific buying or selling actions.