Today I played with Iguchi and UT theory again.
played with UT theory.
When humans vanish, only the story of the chart remains.
Today I played with Iguchi using a completely random walk.
Playing, in this case, means doing something a bit different.
With a completely 50/50 probability, moving up or down by 1. Repeating this operation a million times, I created a single gigantic original series.
Furthermore, I transformed that same series into multiple timeframes. No matter which timeframe you look at, you see the same random world at different resolutions.
Today I created a market without humans
There are no humans. No buyers, no sellers. No fear, no desire, no market psychology, no news, no institutional investors.
What exists is simply one million perfect 50/50 outcomes. I named this experiment UT ZERO.
will UT remain?
Iguchi came to break his own theory
Iguchi didn’t start this experiment to defend his theory. Rather, he came to break it.
“I want forms I don’t know to appear lol.”
I also wondered whether some strange shape might appear that UT cannot explain.
However, nothing appeared.
FIG. 01 Range, horizontal line, breakout, reversal. In a world without humans, everything remained.
But it could be read as a normal chart
As soon as Iguchi looked at the chart, he started talking as usual.
This is a range. The right side of this consolidation is a candidate for the next resistance. Here, the lower timeframe reverses upward. But it was swallowed by a big drop and the reversal failed. It reversed once more, so from here the outlook is up for the moment.
If you drop to a shorter timeframe, you can long up to the upper resistance. Since you entered the resistance, next you should watch for a pullback. When the pullback completes and the accompanying low is broken, you short from here.
FIG. 02 X → a → b → c → D → E. The story never paused.
The story was not a post-hoc explanation, but a state update
It wasn’t just pasting a story onto a completed chart. It was about what you see at that moment, which direction you turn, and what prompts you to change your perspective. The usual rules applied to the random walk as well.
UT appeared as a real-time state update system for a one-dimensional path with multiple timeframes.
Universal pattern appeared
On higher timeframes, the bias is downward. In mid timeframes, the upward trend in the opposite direction ends. The next rise cannot even surpass the high.
Lower down, the universal pattern is completed. By normal rules, one would be forced to go short there. And indeed, afterward there was a large drop.
01 Maintain downtrend on higher timeframe
02 Confirm reversal on middle timeframe
03 Execute on lower timeframe
The universal pattern may not be a special form created by market participants, but a universal shape that a one-dimensional path adopts when a direction change is confirmed.
Then, when the shape breaks, what does UT do?
So far, we have seen UT shapes emerge even in a completely random walk. But what truly supports trading is not only the shape that hits.
→ Even if you get “Wow... that one?!” it can be merely a stop-loss.
→ A way to keep losses at a constant “1” through entry position and the way you construct positions
→ From GPT’s view, the essence of the UT methodology
→ In randomness is thin, but in markets there is a sense of “discomfort” and dynamism
Is UT a theory that predicts the future? Or a grammar to get out of a failed world quickly?