I decided where to cut losses based on the day's mood—I will share the "map" I created after testing it 56 ways over ten and a half years
This is not about not being able to cut losses.
It’s about placing the exit position for losses in a different way each time,
Even with the same unrealized loss, the place to cut was different each time
Looking at my old order history, the stop loss width was all over the place.
Sometimes it was $30, sometimes $120. The ticker and the time frame were the same.
I can recall the reason.Because I decided it based on the size of the unrealized loss for that day.
If the unrealized loss was shallow, I would “cut here” and keep it nearby. If it grew deeper, I would move it away with the thought, “If I cut here it will be big.” The desire not to be cut off actually moved the knife’s position itself.
And on the days I moved it away, that level would be reached anyway.
Why “I’ll cut when I come back” never comes
When you’re holding a loss, two futures are running in your head.
If you cut now, you incur the loss. If you keep it, it’s not yet confirmed.
Humans cannot compare these two equally.The confirmed loss feels heavier, even if it’s the same amount. So you keep choosing the “not yet confirmed” side.
This isn’t a matter of willpower. It’s just how we’re built to feel.
The problem is deciding “where to cut” in that state.The answer changes every time.Because the comfortable position changes as the depth of the unrealized loss changes.
That’s why you need a map first
A common recommendation is to “decide the cut before you enter.” I think that’s right.
However, I hit a snag trying to implement this.There was no material to decide beforehand.
So I created an indicator for myself that draws the chart structure using the same rules every time.
- Connect the highs and lows of confirmed swings
- Mark the areas that repeatedly react at the same price level with a band (zone) drawn as a rectangle
- Show how many times that band has been touched (T2, T4, …)
- Provide a candidate band for pullbacks and bounces for the current leg
With this, the “how much above and below the most recent resistance is there,” and “how much dollars to that point” appeared in the same shape the moment they openedthe moment the map opened.
The exit location shifted from being a matter of mood to “outside the recent low,” or “outside a band that has been touched four times.”
This is the main point I want to convey in this article
After I created that map, I naturally thought,“If I trade mechanically using this line, I will win.”
I tested it. Gold, hourly chart, from January 2016 to July 2026,61,994 candles.
I’ll state the results first.
Momentum following (chasing after a break of the band) 40 variants
- When looking only at the latter period (2022–2026),26 out of 40 variants surpassed PF1.0
- But when looking at the early period (2016–2021) as well,there were zero variants that surpassed PF1.0 in both periods.
Mean-reversion at the band edge 16 variants
- Across the early and late periods, or for the whole period,there were zero variants that surpassed PF1.0 in any period
- Even the best overall setting for the full period had PF0.806
Looking only at the latter five years, it may seem like a tool with 26 winning settings exists. Looking at the early period, it becomes zero the moment you see it.
This is what happens when you’re shown the performance table for the latter half only.It became a shape I demonstrated with my own tool, by myself.
Still, why share it
This validation does not endorse using this tool as a signalto trade based on a signal. It would be misleading to buy just because an arrow appears.
What I do not negate is the use as amap.
Where to place the stop loss. How much price action remains to the next wall.To output that every time with the same rule. I have not tested whether there is any edge in that, and I don’t think it’s something to be tested. You decide this.
What changed for me was not the win rate,but that the width of the stop loss stopped varying day by day.
What this tool does not do
To be honest, here it is.
- I do not trade.There is no order entry function. It is for display only.
- I do not display arrows.Showing an automated edge would be misleading since no edge was found in mechanized trading.
- The lines do not redraw later.The structure appears only after the right side is confirmed, and confirmed past data does not change. I have verified with the MT5 version and the Python version over ten and a half years and more than 60,000 candles, that pivot points 6,454 cases, swing points 5,103, and zones 555 all matchperfectly.
I will provide the indicator itself (for MT5) andthe 56 performance reports described above. They include bad numbers as well.
It is free, but you need to apply.
In the continuation, I describe the steps to receive and implement it, andthree steps to determine the stop-loss position.