MMA Weekly Report Nikkei Stock Average By Raymond Merriman Aug.31 2026
1. Retrospective
Last week when the Nikkei 225 Average closed at 66,405, up 389 points from the previous week. The week's low was on the 25th (Tuesday) at 64,609. The week's high was on the 27th (Thursday) at 66,954. The week's range moved between the weekly support line and the weekly lower support line, so it was neutral. Furthermore, this closing value briefly fell below the Weekly Trend Indicator Point (TIP) for the first time in four weeks. However, the underlying tone remains in a “neutral” state.
2. Cycles
As previously stated, in “Forecast 2026” the long-term market cycle duration for the Nikkei 225 has been changed from 17 years to 19 years. However, there is no change to the starting point at October 28, 2008 of 6,994. Therefore, where this 19-year cycle bottoms, or whether it has not yet bottomed, will be a focus in 2026. That said, there is no change to the view that the current market is built on a 4-year cycle, and the future development of the long-term market cycle will continue to be influenced by the recent PC (typically 12–20 weeks) movements. Currently, from the perspective of the long-term market cycle, extremely important lows are August 5, 2024 at 31,156 and April 7, 2025 at 30,792. And these two lows were PC bottoms of 16 weeks and 19 weeks, sandwiching the November 28, 2024 low of 37,801. The question remains how PC will be viewed going forward.
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