8/28 Morning USDJPY (4-hour chart) ABCD situation as viewed from an Eagle Eye perspective

This is the USD/JPY (4-hour chart) as of 7:00 AM on 8/28.

Crossing moving averages for support-resistance reversal of ABCD price action on a single chart, with large, medium, and small moving averages (Blue ① 20 SMA · Red ② 50 SMA · Green ③ 100 SMA · Black ④ 200 SMA · Yellow ⑤ 400 SMA) all visible at once.

A broad vantage pointfor ABCD price actionto capture roughly,

A: Point A, the maximum upward deviation from 200–400 SMAOnce reached,

B: Break below 200–400 SMA with an overshoot and fall to point B,

C: At point C, a return toward the downward-sloped 200–400 SMA and a reversal-sell,

D: A fall below point B down to point D, forming the price action.

Thinking of ABCD price action in soccer terms, the crossing of moving averages for a support-resistance reversal is like carrying the ball from point A to point B by dribble or pass across the moving averages, then passing the ball from point B back to the moving averages toward point C, and from point C moving forward to point D beyond B with passes, shots, or dribbles.

＜Blue ① 20SMA, Blue Island playerviewpoint for support-resistance reversal (rising ABCD)

Support-resistance reversal at blue 20SMAand the breakout above the B highindicates that the rising ABCD has been completed.but,

In soccer terms, imagine Blue Island passing the ball from blue C point to Blacku 200SMA line where Kurosawa is waiting.

For Blue Island, it seems they intend to pass to Blacka,butso

＜Red ② 50SMA, Red Star playerviewpoint for support-resistance reversal (downward ABCD)

Red Star attempted to form downward ABCD with red 20SMA, but could not hold at point C (failed) and was broken above, however, since Red Star still has a marginal area to control the ball and was not broken above,there is a slight possibility to form downward ABCD from here as well.

（If this scene were in a World Cup match,in a calm consideration, there would be no need to cut and stop the ball that Blue Island passed to Blacku,but Red Star is also fighting hard and is trying to ensure the ball connects to Blacku in the best possible way,or think that they are trying to advance the ball themselves with Blacku attracting opponentsto move the ball forward with their own effort.

＜Green ③ 100SMA, Green River playerviewpoint for support-resistance reversal (downward ABCD)

Green River also tried to form downward ABCD with green 100SMA, but at point C could not hold (failed) and was broken above, however, since Green River is barely able to control the ball in the area, there is a slight possibility to form downward ABCD from here as well.

（If this scene were in a World Cup match, calmly thinking would indicate that there is no need to cut and stop the ball Blue Island passed to Blacku…）

＜Black ④ 200SMA, Black Kuroda playerviewpoint for support-resistance reversal (downward ABCD)

For Black, at the 200SMA line, they are waiting to receive a pass.

Currently,Blue Island’s N-shaped pass (Blue AB = Blue CD) exactly reaches the Black 200SMA,so from around the firmly-back Black 200SMA line, Black could accumulate strength and aim to break below the BBB point and head toward the DDDDD point, waiting for the ballto advance.

However, the Black 200SMA line has not touched any Fibonacci retracement levels,,and if the ball is passed through to the golden player near the yellow 400SMA, where 61.8% retrace (160.6) overlaps, that could be favorable,and there is a slight possibility that Red Star or Green River could be better off moving the ball around the 50.0% retrace (159.6),and it appears there is intense focus from the midfield commander or coach.

＜Yellow ⑤ 400SMA, Golden Playerviewpoint for support-resistance reversal (downward ABCD)

From the Golden Player’s perspective, they are waiting where yellow 400SMA and 61.8% retrace (160.6) align, in case Black 200SMA is breached or broken through.

If, by any chance, yellow 400SMA is breached, for Japan’s victory,.

（If possible, they would prefer to keep the ball below yellow 200SMA and progress to point D (believing they can)）

●Big-picture viewis that,they anticipate a fall from point C near 200–400 SMA through point BBBto the downside.

● The issue isby late July, the monthly close had already broken below short-term MA and the 23.6% retrace support,and by end of August, the monthly close should stay in a zone below 158.0 at least,time-related concernsremain. The analogy is like a mother worried about summer homework due by 8/31 and kids not touching it yet; wondering when they will do it— perhaps tonight’s Jackson Hole meeting is important?,

●If you were the Japan national team’s commander controlling 10 players plus yourself, or the coach directing the players, what instructions would you give at this moment to lead Japan to World Cup victory?

(The coach who can make Japan a World Cup-winning team in the next tournament would be someone who rehearses teamwork among players beforehand so they can react in real time, and during the match understands each player’s status to give the best directives for the full 90 minutes plus extra time.)