Cryptocurrency Market Analysis [August 25]

Detailed report on the latest trends in the asset class market (cryptocurrencies) and related news

Price trends and market overview since last week月

Last week (roughly8month18 days ago and after) the cryptocurrency market saw a very rapid and strong rebound rally

Last week can be described as tumultuous, with the U.S. government’s repurchase of Treasuries, a White House meeting with leaders of the crypto industry, record highs for hyperliquidity and ZEC, and inflows of institutional investor funds into ETFs. Given how quiet the market had been until now, these developments had a substantial impact. I have held ZEC since 2017, and several currencies have logged large price increases in this rally, just like ZEC. The pursuit of crypto asset growth led by the United States as a economic powerhouse remains anything but calm.

※This is the main topic from here

Bitcoin (BTC) began trading in a range around64,000–65,000 dollars per 1 BTC. The rally started abruptly after important U.S. Treasury-related news reported after, with a surge to the 78,000日には 78,000 level on August dollars. It subsequently continued to test the psychological milestone of2180,000 dollars as the rally persisted.

The weekly gain was over24% (amounting toover 14,000 dollars in price increase). In U.S. dollar terms, this was a record weekly rise, marking the strongest weekly performance since2023. With this sharp rise, BTC clearly broke above the mid-term downtrend line, and major technical indicators, including the200-day moving average, have recovered vigorously.-day moving average, have recovered vigorously.

Bitcoin daily chart

Ether (Ethereum (ETH) also rose from about1,900 dollars to around2,500 dollars, delivering a weekly gain exceeding30The ETH/BTC ratio improved clearly as ETH outperformed BTC.

Ethereum daily chart

Looking at other major altcoins, XRP rose about50% over the week, Solana (SOL) rose over30%, and Binance Coin (BNB) rose about15–17%. The broad market rallied, pushing the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies from around2.2 trillion to over2.7 trillion.

Overall, the market was supported by three strong factors—an improvement in global financial liquidity, ongoing physical buying by institutional investors, and short squeezes driven by forced liquidations of shorts—combining to create a very rapid and substantial rebound in a short period.3.In the near term, technical indicators such as RSI show overheating conditions, so there is a risk of a short-term correction or range-bound trading. Nevertheless, structural buying pressure remains strong.The Bitcoin sentiment indicator, the Fear & Greed Index, recorded“74”, indicating a bullish greed sentiment in the market.Current Bitcoin (BTC) trading price is around79,777 dollars per 1 BTC.Today (August 25, 2026) Major crypto asset price movementsToday's major crypto assets moved in a broadly strong bullish tone but showed a calmer trend due to occasional profit-taking at higher price levels. The total market capitalization of all crypto assets is currently around2.65 trillion to2.78 trillion, with a 24-hour change of roughly+0.2% to+2%.Overview of major coins and 24-hour price range (estimate):Bitcoin (BTC) trades around79,000–80,700 dollars. The psychological level of80,000 dollars was decisively breached during trading, with a peak reaching the81,000 dollar level. The 24-hour change was about+0.5% to+4%, and the market capitalization stands at roughly1.58–1.62 trillion.Ethereum (ETH) trades around2,470–2,510 dollars. The 24-hour change is roughly+0.9% to+1.5%, with a market cap around2,980–3,020 billion dollars.Solana (SOL) trades around98–101 dollars. 24-hour change is about+2.8% to+6%, with relatively strong price action among major coins.XRP trades around1.47–1.52 dollars. 24-hour change is roughly+1.7% to+2.6%.Binance Coin (BNB) trades around695–714 dollars. Its 24-hour change shows an upward trend of roughly+1% to+2.5%.Bitcoin breaking the psychological and technical threshold of80,000 dollars for the first time in months has strongly driven investor sentiment across the crypto market. Altcoins also rose in tandem with Bitcoin, but the BTC dominance—an indicator of Bitcoin’s share of the total market capitalization—remained high.Key background factors and market news driving price movementsContinued demand from institutions and ETF demandIn the U.S. market, the inflows into physical Bitcoin ETFs have remained solid, increasing risk-on posture led by institutions has strengthened further.Reignition of “Development Trade” (downside protection via currency depreciation)The U.S. Treasury announced it is considering and signaling expansion of the long-term government bond buyback program to at least double its scale. As a result, concerns about future dollar depreciation and fiscal deterioration are fueling capital inflows into assets with capped supply such as Bitcoin and gold. A decline in dollar strength and improvements in market liquidity are major drivers of price rises..Short position liquidations providing upward pullIn the futures and derivatives markets, large-scale forced liquidations of short positions, anticipated price declines, occurred, especially in Bitcoin, leading to billions of dollars in shorts liquidations and further price appreciation. Unsettled positions (open interest) have also been rising.Other factorsRegulatory movements around some cryptos and reported vulnerabilities in certain DeFi protocols have appeared as negative news, but overall market sentiment remains very bullish—“Extreme Greed”—with strong demand from institutions providing support at the lower end.Spot ETF inflows (flows) summary (latest about 1 week)Inflows into physical Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. have been very strong, underpinning the rise in spot prices.Last week (from August 17 to 21) Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached about $1.92 billion. This was the largest weekly inflow since October 2025, and has remained among the strongest inflows in 2026.Subsequent inflows have continued unabated, with daily net inflows staying robust as follows.August 17: about $298 million net inflowAugust 18: about $189 million net inflowAugust 19: about $517 million net inflowAugust 20: about $606 million net inflowAugust 21: about $308 million net inflowAugust 24: about $338 million net inflowThus, there were six consecutive business days of net inflows, totaling about $2.26 billion in the last six days alone. Cumulative net inflows reached about $54.0 billion, and assets under management (AUM) expanded to around $986 billion. The bulk of the flows have been led by the ETF “IBIT” from BlackRock.Timeline of major market turning pointsThe market began to change on Tuesday when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a new regulatory framework to enable crypto issuers to raise funds legally and clearly.On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would at least double the scale of the long-term government bond buyback program, boosting expectations for market liquidity. On the same day, President Trump hosted a summit at the White House with executives from leading crypto firms, urging Congress to promptly pass the CLARITY Act to provide clear regulatory guidance on crypto assets. This accelerated the market’s bullish momentum.As a result of these favorable factors, prices rose sharply and about $1.4 billion worth of short positions in the derivatives market were forced to liquidate, adding momentum to the rally.Details of various market-related news・Gold price rise and renewed concerns about dollar weaknessGold spot price surpassed $4,640 per ounce, reaching a multi-month high. The U.S. Treasury’s intervention in the bond market (Treasury buybacks) has reignited concerns over future currency debasement and dollar weakness.・ZEC’s surge and ETF conversion filingPrivacy-focused asset Zcash (ZEC) broke through the 830 level for the first time in eight years.Grayscale’s latest filings indicate ongoing conversion of the existing ZEC trust into a physical ETF, which is viewed positively.・Rally in U.S. crypto-related equitiesU.S. stock markets saw crypto-related stocks surge within about 48 hours. Coinbase rose about 30%, Marathon Digital rose about 33%, and MicroStrategy (renamed Strategy) rose about 28%.President Trump’s White House remarks supporting crypto acted as a strong ignition for related stocks. The overall crypto market saw about $19 billion in market cap growth within 24 hours.White House Crypto Summit: key takeawaysAugust 19, a crypto assets summit was held at the White House with executives from Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, Chainlink, and others attending. Key remarks and discussions included:Trump stated that the U.S. government is considering buying and holding Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a national asset.Trump urged Congress to pass the clarifying law on crypto asset regulation promptly.Trump pledged that the United States will remain an unwavering global leader in Bitcoin and crypto innovation.Trump mentioned pressing the CFTC to bring crypto trading frameworks to the U.S. market, which led to a 15% surge in the Hyperliquid token $HYPE to $69.SEC Chair Gary Gensler stated that the United States will “make sure that the most advanced technology advances here.”Gemini co-founders commented that America should lead the crypto industry and win in the global market.Trump emphasized that he would “never allow a repeat of the restrictive attitudes and conflicts seen in the past toward crypto assets.”Arthur Hayes’ reflections: Policy choices by the Treasury Secretary and Bitcoin’s futureArthur Hayes, co-founder of major crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, released his essay “Same Same But Different.” He argues that regardless of who the Treasury Secretary is or what claims they publicly make, market pressure will ultimately force them to opt for “currency expansion (liquidity injection).”Hayes cites current Treasury Secretary Yellen’s recent expansion of long-term bond buybacks as an example. He notes this mirrors the 2023 Fed-era operation by then-Treasury Secretary Yellen, which used short-term debt issuance to push liquidity into the market and manage interest rates, with the aim of injecting dollar liquidity as the 10-year yield nears the risk-free rate.Hayes references past events where Yellen’s liquidity provision created about $2.4 trillion in liquidity, which helped ignite Bitcoin’s bull run after the FTX collapse. He suggests the current Secretary is facing the same challenge and will be compelled to push for further buybacks eventually, though not immediately evident from the first round.Hayes concludes that, regardless of timing differences, enormous dollar liquidity will eventually flood the market, leading Bitcoin to follow a long-term uptrend. He notes that the family office he co-founded, Maelstrom, is already fully invested in long positions, holding large quantities of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ethena (ENA).Ray Dalio’s Critical Analysis of Japan’s Economy and Government DebtRenowned investor and former head of the world’s largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, offered a harsh assessment of Japan’s structural economic challenges.Dalio pointed out that Japan’s government debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 215%, the highest among advanced economies.Additionally, since 2013, Japanese government bonds have fallen about 51% relative to U.S. dollar-denominated assets and about 76% relative to gold. He concludes that over the past decade or more, Japanese government bonds have been an extremely poor investment for holders.He also noted that real wages for Japanese workers have fallen about 55% relative to American wages since 2013.Dalio’s analysis suggests that Japan is not a success story of maintaining a country with massive debt, but rather a case where default was avoided at the cost of currency depreciation and a significant decline in citizens’ asset values and purchasing power.Long-term macroeconomic structural issues and global inflationary pressuresRemarks by White House officials appear to be stimulating market prices in the short term, but long-standing macroeconomic fundamentals have warned of the same structural risks for years.U.S. federal debt currently approaches an astronomical $40 trillion, and annual interest payments on debt exceed $1 trillion—a highly abnormal situation.Annual U.S. budget deficits stand at about 6% of GDP, far above the long-term average of 3.8% over the last 50 years.The dollar’s purchasing power has fallen by about 53% since 1990.Importantly, this pattern of fiscal deterioration and currency depreciation is a common challenge across most major advanced economies, including the U.S., U.K., and Japan.Bitcoin-related individual news detailsMichael Saylor of Strategy (Strategy) reveals a shift to realized gainsStrategy, known for its large Bitcoin holdings, saw chairman Michael Saylor’s unrealized gains flip to a substantial profit of about $1.4 billion (over 200 billion yen) as Bitcoin surpassed $77,000. The shift marks a clear change in sentiment. The company’s preferred stock STRK rose to $95, nearing its par value.Strategy halts Bitcoin purchases and increases cash reservesStrategy recently paused additional Bitcoin purchases and increased cash reserves by $1.9 billion. Following the $1.32 billion STRC buyback, the firm has moved into a defensive, strategic mode with ample cash on hand.Standard Chartered Bank issues bullish year-end forecast of $100,000Standard Chartered, a major global bank, forecast Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by year-end 2026. Such a bold projection from a traditional financial institution raises expectations for further institutional participation.Cathie Wood foresees Bitcoin at $1.5 millionCathie Wood, leader of ARK Invest, reiterated a very bullish long-term forecast. She asserts that Bitcoin could head to $150,000 per 1 BTC, supported by substantial institutional participation, a fixed supply of 2.1 billion coins, and Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold.” She adds that if the U.S. government begins direct purchases of Bitcoin as a national strategic asset, this ascent could accelerate further.CZ on Bitcoin ownership difficultyBinance founder CZ (Changpeng Zhao) said that in the future even wealthy individuals with substantial funds may find owning a full amount of Bitcoin (1 BTC) as a personal asset to be extremely difficult.【Paid subscription notice】Paid subscriber area offers deeper, valuable analysis of individual assets.“I want to invest in assets that will yield the next big profit beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.”“I want to understand the fundamental flows in the crypto market and capture that wave reliably.”If you share these sentiments, please consider subscribing. Consistent, high-quality research is the key to great success.(This report has been delivering at the forefront of the market since its inception in2016.)

In the near term, technical indicators such as RSI show overheating conditions, so there is a risk of a short-term correction or range-bound trading. Nevertheless, structural buying pressure remains strong.

The Bitcoin sentiment indicator, the Fear & Greed Index, recorded“74”, indicating a bullish greed sentiment in the market.

Current Bitcoin (BTC) trading price is around79,777 dollars per 1 BTC.

Today (August 25, 2026) Major crypto asset price movements

Today's major crypto assets moved in a broadly strong bullish tone but showed a calmer trend due to occasional profit-taking at higher price levels. The total market capitalization of all crypto assets is currently around2.65 trillion to2.78 trillion, with a 24-hour change of roughly+0.2% to+2%.

Overview of major coins and 24-hour price range (estimate):

Bitcoin (BTC) trades around79,000–80,700 dollars. The psychological level of80,00081,000 dollar level. The 24-hour change was about+0.5% to+4%, and the market capitalization stands at roughly1.58–1.62 trillion.

Ethereum (ETH) trades around2,470–2,510 dollars. The 24-hour change is roughly+0.9% to+1.5%, with a market cap around2,980–3,020 billion dollars.

Solana (SOL) trades around98–101 dollars. 24-hour change is about+2.8% to+6%, with relatively strong price action among major coins.

XRP trades around1.47–1.52 dollars. 24-hour change is roughly+1.7% to+2.6%.

Binance Coin (BNB) trades around695–714 dollars. Its 24-hour change shows an upward trend of roughly+1% to+2.5%.

Bitcoin breaking the psychological and technical threshold of80,000 dollars for the first time in months has strongly driven investor sentiment across the crypto market. Altcoins also rose in tandem with Bitcoin, but the BTC dominance—an indicator of Bitcoin’s share of the total market capitalization—remained high.

Key background factors and market news driving price movements

Continued demand from institutions and ETF demand

In the U.S. market, the inflows into physical Bitcoin ETFs have remained solid, increasing risk-on posture led by institutions has strengthened further.Reignition of “Development Trade” (downside protection via currency depreciation)The U.S. Treasury announced it is considering and signaling expansion of the long-term government bond buyback program to at least double its scale. As a result, concerns about future dollar depreciation and fiscal deterioration are fueling capital inflows into assets with capped supply such as Bitcoin and gold. A decline in dollar strength and improvements in market liquidity are major drivers of price rises..Short position liquidations providing upward pullIn the futures and derivatives markets, large-scale forced liquidations of short positions, anticipated price declines, occurred, especially in Bitcoin, leading to billions of dollars in shorts liquidations and further price appreciation. Unsettled positions (open interest) have also been rising.Other factorsRegulatory movements around some cryptos and reported vulnerabilities in certain DeFi protocols have appeared as negative news, but overall market sentiment remains very bullish—“Extreme Greed”—with strong demand from institutions providing support at the lower end.Spot ETF inflows (flows) summary (latest about 1 week)Inflows into physical Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. have been very strong, underpinning the rise in spot prices.Last week (from August 17 to 21) Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached about $1.92 billion. This was the largest weekly inflow since October 2025, and has remained among the strongest inflows in 2026.Subsequent inflows have continued unabated, with daily net inflows staying robust as follows.August 17: about $298 million net inflowAugust 18: about $189 million net inflowAugust 19: about $517 million net inflowAugust 20: about $606 million net inflowAugust 21: about $308 million net inflowAugust 24: about $338 million net inflowThus, there were six consecutive business days of net inflows, totaling about $2.26 billion in the last six days alone. Cumulative net inflows reached about $54.0 billion, and assets under management (AUM) expanded to around $986 billion. The bulk of the flows have been led by the ETF “IBIT” from BlackRock.Timeline of major market turning pointsThe market began to change on Tuesday when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a new regulatory framework to enable crypto issuers to raise funds legally and clearly.On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would at least double the scale of the long-term government bond buyback program, boosting expectations for market liquidity. On the same day, President Trump hosted a summit at the White House with executives from leading crypto firms, urging Congress to promptly pass the CLARITY Act to provide clear regulatory guidance on crypto assets. This accelerated the market’s bullish momentum.As a result of these favorable factors, prices rose sharply and about $1.4 billion worth of short positions in the derivatives market were forced to liquidate, adding momentum to the rally.Details of various market-related news・Gold price rise and renewed concerns about dollar weaknessGold spot price surpassed $4,640 per ounce, reaching a multi-month high. The U.S. Treasury’s intervention in the bond market (Treasury buybacks) has reignited concerns over future currency debasement and dollar weakness.・ZEC’s surge and ETF conversion filingPrivacy-focused asset Zcash (ZEC) broke through the 830 level for the first time in eight years.Grayscale’s latest filings indicate ongoing conversion of the existing ZEC trust into a physical ETF, which is viewed positively.・Rally in U.S. crypto-related equitiesU.S. stock markets saw crypto-related stocks surge within about 48 hours. Coinbase rose about 30%, Marathon Digital rose about 33%, and MicroStrategy (renamed Strategy) rose about 28%.President Trump’s White House remarks supporting crypto acted as a strong ignition for related stocks. The overall crypto market saw about $19 billion in market cap growth within 24 hours.White House Crypto Summit: key takeawaysAugust 19, a crypto assets summit was held at the White House with executives from Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, Chainlink, and others attending. Key remarks and discussions included:Trump stated that the U.S. government is considering buying and holding Bitcoin and other crypto assets as a national asset.Trump urged Congress to pass the clarifying law on crypto asset regulation promptly.Trump pledged that the United States will remain an unwavering global leader in Bitcoin and crypto innovation.Trump mentioned pressing the CFTC to bring crypto trading frameworks to the U.S. market, which led to a 15% surge in the Hyperliquid token $HYPE to $69.SEC Chair Gary Gensler stated that the United States will “make sure that the most advanced technology advances here.”Gemini co-founders commented that America should lead the crypto industry and win in the global market.Trump emphasized that he would “never allow a repeat of the restrictive attitudes and conflicts seen in the past toward crypto assets.”Arthur Hayes’ reflections: Policy choices by the Treasury Secretary and Bitcoin’s futureArthur Hayes, co-founder of major crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, released his essay “Same Same But Different.” He argues that regardless of who the Treasury Secretary is or what claims they publicly make, market pressure will ultimately force them to opt for “currency expansion (liquidity injection).”Hayes cites current Treasury Secretary Yellen’s recent expansion of long-term bond buybacks as an example. He notes this mirrors the 2023 Fed-era operation by then-Treasury Secretary Yellen, which used short-term debt issuance to push liquidity into the market and manage interest rates, with the aim of injecting dollar liquidity as the 10-year yield nears the risk-free rate.Hayes references past events where Yellen’s liquidity provision created about $2.4 trillion in liquidity, which helped ignite Bitcoin’s bull run after the FTX collapse. He suggests the current Secretary is facing the same challenge and will be compelled to push for further buybacks eventually, though not immediately evident from the first round.Hayes concludes that, regardless of timing differences, enormous dollar liquidity will eventually flood the market, leading Bitcoin to follow a long-term uptrend. He notes that the family office he co-founded, Maelstrom, is already fully invested in long positions, holding large quantities of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ethena (ENA).Ray Dalio’s Critical Analysis of Japan’s Economy and Government DebtRenowned investor and former head of the world’s largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, offered a harsh assessment of Japan’s structural economic challenges.Dalio pointed out that Japan’s government debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 215%, the highest among advanced economies.Additionally, since 2013, Japanese government bonds have fallen about 51% relative to U.S. dollar-denominated assets and about 76% relative to gold. He concludes that over the past decade or more, Japanese government bonds have been an extremely poor investment for holders.He also noted that real wages for Japanese workers have fallen about 55% relative to American wages since 2013.Dalio’s analysis suggests that Japan is not a success story of maintaining a country with massive debt, but rather a case where default was avoided at the cost of currency depreciation and a significant decline in citizens’ asset values and purchasing power.Long-term macroeconomic structural issues and global inflationary pressuresRemarks by White House officials appear to be stimulating market prices in the short term, but long-standing macroeconomic fundamentals have warned of the same structural risks for years.U.S. federal debt currently approaches an astronomical $40 trillion, and annual interest payments on debt exceed $1 trillion—a highly abnormal situation.Annual U.S. budget deficits stand at about 6% of GDP, far above the long-term average of 3.8% over the last 50 years.The dollar’s purchasing power has fallen by about 53% since 1990.Importantly, this pattern of fiscal deterioration and currency depreciation is a common challenge across most major advanced economies, including the U.S., U.K., and Japan.Bitcoin-related individual news detailsMichael Saylor of Strategy (Strategy) reveals a shift to realized gainsStrategy, known for its large Bitcoin holdings, saw chairman Michael Saylor’s unrealized gains flip to a substantial profit of about $1.4 billion (over 200 billion yen) as Bitcoin surpassed $77,000. The shift marks a clear change in sentiment. The company’s preferred stock STRK rose to $95, nearing its par value.Strategy halts Bitcoin purchases and increases cash reservesStrategy recently paused additional Bitcoin purchases and increased cash reserves by $1.9 billion. Following the $1.32 billion STRC buyback, the firm has moved into a defensive, strategic mode with ample cash on hand.Standard Chartered Bank issues bullish year-end forecast of $100,000Standard Chartered, a major global bank, forecast Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by year-end 2026. Such a bold projection from a traditional financial institution raises expectations for further institutional participation.Cathie Wood foresees Bitcoin at $1.5 millionCathie Wood, leader of ARK Invest, reiterated a very bullish long-term forecast. She asserts that Bitcoin could head to $150,000 per 1 BTC, supported by substantial institutional participation, a fixed supply of 2.1 billion coins, and Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold.” She adds that if the U.S. government begins direct purchases of Bitcoin as a national strategic asset, this ascent could accelerate further.CZ on Bitcoin ownership difficultyBinance founder CZ (Changpeng Zhao) said that in the future even wealthy individuals with substantial funds may find owning a full amount of Bitcoin (1 BTC) as a personal asset to be extremely difficult.【Paid subscription notice】Paid subscriber area offers deeper, valuable analysis of individual assets.“I want to invest in assets that will yield the next big profit beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.”“I want to understand the fundamental flows in the crypto market and capture that wave reliably.”If you share these sentiments, please consider subscribing. Consistent, high-quality research is the key to great success.(This report has been delivering at the forefront of the market since its inception in2016.)

Reignition of “Development Trade” (downside protection via currency depreciation)

The U.S. Treasury announced it is considering and signaling expansion of the long-term government bond buyback program to at least double its scale. As a result, concerns about future dollar depreciation and fiscal deterioration are fueling capital inflows into assets with capped supply such as Bitcoin and gold. A decline in dollar strength and improvements in market liquidity are major drivers of price rises..

Short position liquidations providing upward pull

In the futures and derivatives markets, large-scale forced liquidations of short positions, anticipated price declines, occurred, especially in Bitcoin, leading to billions of dollars in shorts liquidations and further price appreciation. Unsettled positions (open interest) have also been rising.

Other factors

Regulatory movements around some cryptos and reported vulnerabilities in certain DeFi protocols have appeared as negative news, but overall market sentiment remains very bullish—“Extreme Greed”—with strong demand from institutions providing support at the lower end.

Spot ETF inflows (flows) summary (latest about 1 week)

Inflows into physical Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. have been very strong, underpinning the rise in spot prices.

Last week (from August 17 to 21) Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached about $1.92 billion. This was the largest weekly inflow since October 2025, and has remained among the strongest inflows in 2026.

Subsequent inflows have continued unabated, with daily net inflows staying robust as follows.

August 17: about $298 million net inflow

August 18: about $189 million net inflow

August 19: about $517 million net inflow

August 20: about $606 million net inflow

August 21: about $308 million net inflow

August 24: about $338 million net inflow

Thus, there were six consecutive business days of net inflows, totaling about $2.26 billion in the last six days alone. Cumulative net inflows reached about $54.0 billion, and assets under management (AUM) expanded to around $986 billion. The bulk of the flows have been led by the ETF “IBIT” from BlackRock.

Timeline of major market turning points

The market began to change on Tuesday when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a new regulatory framework to enable crypto issuers to raise funds legally and clearly.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would at least double the scale of the long-term government bond buyback program, boosting expectations for market liquidity. On the same day, President Trump hosted a summit at the White House with executives from leading crypto firms, urging Congress to promptly pass the CLARITY Act to provide clear regulatory guidance on crypto assets. This accelerated the market’s bullish momentum.

As a result of these favorable factors, prices rose sharply and about $1.4 billion worth of short positions in the derivatives market were forced to liquidate, adding momentum to the rally.

Details of various market-related news

Privacy-focused asset Zcash (ZEC) broke through the 830 level for the first time in eight years.Grayscale’s latest filings indicate ongoing conversion of the existing ZEC trust into a physical ETF, which is viewed positively.

・Rally in U.S. crypto-related equities

August 19, a crypto assets summit was held at the White House with executives from Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, Chainlink, and others attending. Key remarks and discussions included:

Arthur Hayes’ reflections: Policy choices by the Treasury Secretary and Bitcoin’s future

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of major crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, released his essay “Same Same But Different.” He argues that regardless of who the Treasury Secretary is or what claims they publicly make, market pressure will ultimately force them to opt for “currency expansion (liquidity injection).”

Hayes cites current Treasury Secretary Yellen’s recent expansion of long-term bond buybacks as an example. He notes this mirrors the 2023 Fed-era operation by then-Treasury Secretary Yellen, which used short-term debt issuance to push liquidity into the market and manage interest rates, with the aim of injecting dollar liquidity as the 10-year yield nears the risk-free rate.

Hayes references past events where Yellen’s liquidity provision created about $2.4 trillion in liquidity, which helped ignite Bitcoin’s bull run after the FTX collapse. He suggests the current Secretary is facing the same challenge and will be compelled to push for further buybacks eventually, though not immediately evident from the first round.

Ray Dalio’s Critical Analysis of Japan’s Economy and Government Debt

Renowned investor and former head of the world’s largest hedge fund, Ray Dalio, offered a harsh assessment of Japan’s structural economic challenges.

Dalio pointed out that Japan’s government debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 215%, the highest among advanced economies.

Additionally, since 2013, Japanese government bonds have fallen about 51% relative to U.S. dollar-denominated assets and about 76% relative to gold. He concludes that over the past decade or more, Japanese government bonds have been an extremely poor investment for holders.

He also noted that real wages for Japanese workers have fallen about 55% relative to American wages since 2013.

Dalio’s analysis suggests that Japan is not a success story of maintaining a country with massive debt, but rather a case where default was avoided at the cost of currency depreciation and a significant decline in citizens’ asset values and purchasing power.

Long-term macroeconomic structural issues and global inflationary pressures

Remarks by White House officials appear to be stimulating market prices in the short term, but long-standing macroeconomic fundamentals have warned of the same structural risks for years.

U.S. federal debt currently approaches an astronomical $40 trillion, and annual interest payments on debt exceed $1 trillion—a highly abnormal situation.

Annual U.S. budget deficits stand at about 6% of GDP, far above the long-term average of 3.8% over the last 50 years.

The dollar’s purchasing power has fallen by about 53% since 1990.

Importantly, this pattern of fiscal deterioration and currency depreciation is a common challenge across most major advanced economies, including the U.S., U.K., and Japan.

Bitcoin-related individual news details

Michael Saylor of Strategy (Strategy) reveals a shift to realized gains

Strategy, known for its large Bitcoin holdings, saw chairman Michael Saylor’s unrealized gains flip to a substantial profit of about $1.4 billion (over 200 billion yen) as Bitcoin surpassed $77,000. The shift marks a clear change in sentiment. The company’s preferred stock STRK rose to $95, nearing its par value.

Strategy halts Bitcoin purchases and increases cash reserves

Strategy recently paused additional Bitcoin purchases and increased cash reserves by $1.9 billion. Following the $1.32 billion STRC buyback, the firm has moved into a defensive, strategic mode with ample cash on hand.

Standard Chartered Bank issues bullish year-end forecast of $100,000

Standard Chartered, a major global bank, forecast Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by year-end 2026. Such a bold projection from a traditional financial institution raises expectations for further institutional participation.

Cathie Wood foresees Bitcoin at $1.5 million

Cathie Wood, leader of ARK Invest, reiterated a very bullish long-term forecast. She asserts that Bitcoin could head to $150,000 per 1 BTC, supported by substantial institutional participation, a fixed supply of 2.1 billion coins, and Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold.” She adds that if the U.S. government begins direct purchases of Bitcoin as a national strategic asset, this ascent could accelerate further.

CZ on Bitcoin ownership difficulty

Binance founder CZ (Changpeng Zhao) said that in the future even wealthy individuals with substantial funds may find owning a full amount of Bitcoin (1 BTC) as a personal asset to be extremely difficult.

(This report has been delivering at the forefront of the market since its inception in2016.)