The essence of "I've become able to win" is not win rate
The true nature of "becoming able to win" is not win rate
It wasn't the win rate, but the way losses occur and how winnings are extended—i.e., risk-reward.
“Recently, I’ve started to win more.” When you keep trading, there are moments when you feel that. Yet many people do not correctly understand the true nature of this “becoming able to win.” Most people assume it’s because the win rate has improved.
But in reality, that’s not the case.What the winning traders changed was not the win rate, but the way they lose and how they extend wins—essentially, the risk-reward.This time, we’ll explain the true nature of “becoming able to win.” Misunderstanding this leads you to exert effort in the wrong direction.
Win rate doesn’t change that much
You might find it surprising,but as a trader grows, win rate does not change dramatically.If a beginner has a win rate of 40%, it’s not common for an advanced trader to have 90%. The market has uncertainty, and no matter how much you improve, you’ll miss moves sometimes.
Rather, it isn’t uncommon for successful traders to have only moderate win rates. There are many who profit reliably with win rates around 50% or even lower. They’re winning not because their win rate is high.
In other words, thinking that “becoming able to win” means “increasing win rate” is fundamentally the wrong direction. Win rate doesn’t rise substantially even with effort. If that’s the case, the true nature of becoming able to win lies elsewhere.
What changed was the “way of losing”
The most significant change a winning trader makes isthe “way of losing”. Specifically, they’ve learned to keep losses small.
In the beginner days, they couldn’t cut losses, and a single loss was large. Therefore, occasional losses wiped out all the profits. But as they grow, they learn to cut losses according to rules. Even when they lose, the losses are small. This improvement in the “way of losing” dramatically changes total returns.
Even if win rate hasn’t changed, if each loss becomes smaller, the total result improves greatly. The sense of “becoming able to win” is often this: losses becoming smaller.Not that wins increased, but losses became lighter. This is the truth.
✕ Win rate increased (in reality, not much change)
◯ Losses when you lose became smaller
◯ You can extend profits when you win
◯ As a result, risk-reward improved
What changed was not win rate but risk-reward.