[Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Recognition & Memo_20260823]

【Path toward dreams_FX_main currencies_market environment recognition and notes_20260823】

August 23, Sunday.

Hello.

Today is also a cloudy day.
Waking up in the middle of the night earthquakes
I checked NHK,
and there have been no aftershocks since then, it seems calm.

For Chiba Prefecture, after heavy rain,
an earthquake is a natural phenomenon that keeps fear lingering.

It is my personal view that
“the Earth is angry.”

Now, last week,
without any news, without any movement,
the Japanese yen gradually started to be sold.

The temporary yen strength move was
likely influenced by the movement of Vesselnt (Bessento)さん.

USD/JPY temporarily fell to around 158.3,
but now it is settling around 159.0.

However, I am worried about the daily candlestick body (カラカサ).


Now, let's verify.
The numbers are at the closing of the daily chart.


【EUR/USD】
Monthly 20th
Weekly Cycle 3, 24th／6LT or
Weekly Cycle 3, 9th／9
Weekly Volatility 148 pips
HPC 1st or 2nd 43rd／43
4HC Weekly Cycle 4 40th／37

I interpret as above.

Is the weekly chart switching?
It is possible,
but I want to watch carefully so that either direction could move.

Technically, dollar strength seems possible.

Jackson Hole meeting and
month-end flow may influence.

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20260823_FX_market environment_video commentary
https://youtu.be/zuAF7-7zhXI
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly 24th
Weekly Cycle 3, 30th／26 or
Weekly Cycle 4, 3rd／3
Weekly Cycle 4, 16th／12
Weekly Volatility 176 pips
HPC 2nd or Daily chart 1st cycle 15th／12
4HC 1st cycle 90th／54 or
4HC 2nd cycle 12th／6

I interpret as above.

There are multiple weekly chart scenarios,
and at present it is difficult to determine.

Additionally, intervention fears are possible,
and holding a position recklessly could lead to stop-outs.


It is a currency pair to watch carefully.


【GBP/USD】
Monthly 20th／13
Weekly Cycle 3, 21st／5LT
Weekly Volatility 155 pips
HPC 1st or 2nd 43rd／43
4HC Weekly Cycle 4, 40th／37

I interpret as above.

The daily candlestick worries me.
It might be coming soon,
and the HPC (Half Primary Cycle)
whether it is 1st or 2nd,
could be the time when it becomes clear.

If it falls, weekly volatility will be larger, I suppose.


【EUR/JPY】
Monthly 25th／21
Weekly Cycle 4, 28th／10LT or
Weekly Cycle 1 or 5 3rd
Weekly Volatility 223 pips
Daily Cycle 1 or 3 15th／15
4HC 2nd cycle 15th／11

I interpret as above.

Since dollar weakness and yen weakness moved,
cross-yen looked up last week.

Further new highs seem possible,
but EUR/USD falling,
USD/JPY may face intervention fears,
a decline in both could produce a long bearish candlestick?

That is how I view the chart.

USD/JPY may hold the key.


【GBP/JPY】
Monthly 25th／24
Weekly Cycle 4, 27th／22 or
Weekly Cycle 5 or 1 3rd
Weekly Volatility 227 pips
Daily Cycle 1st 15th／15
4HC 2nd cycle 15th／15

I interpret as above.

If the weekly chart is likely to be in the 1st,
then the outlook may be bullish?
However, if GBP/USD forms a bearish candle,
this could offset it
and make the outlook difficult.

Caution is needed for month-end flow.


【AUD/JPY】
Monthly 17th／15
Weekly Cycle 3, 27th／16 or
Weekly Cycle 4, 3rd
Weekly Volatility 193 pips
Daily Cycle 1st 15th／15
4HC 2nd cycle 15th／15

I interpret as above.

Rise in US stocks,
rise in AUD/USD,
risk-on environment,
a currency pair with unstoppable momentum.

What to start with?
Where will the switch occur?
I am looking for it.

Because the daily chart 1st scenario is likely,
the probability of continued bullish candles remains high.

*****************************
20260823_FX_market environment_video commentary
https://youtu.be/zuAF7-7zhXI
*****************************

  
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DXY 98.839 +0%
US10Y 4.736 +0.59%
DJI 53282 dollars +518
US500 +0.31%
WTI 87.528 dollars
BRN 94.39 dollars
Nikkei 225 66016 yen -200
　
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Let us learn together.

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/70675
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872


 
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